September 20, 2019

*** This hand was suggested by James500
73*-86  ?
45%
38%
9%
2%
2%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 187
dec
6355 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Friday 3:16 AM
I like if a five gets cuts both hands might acelerate here. I need the chance to get twenty plus here. Now I might need to play some d here. dec
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Friday 3:27 AM
Toss (T J) also seems good.
mrob2199
1432 votes

Joined: February 2009
 
 
 
Friday 3:56 AM
We need a good hand here but we also need to keep the pone at bay-this hold provides us with the best defensive pegging hand while it also is helped by most cuts-a jack or queen cut could cost us a 16 point hand but it also could be a 10 hand with a possible 8 crib-peg this hand very defensively-we dont want the pone to get to 95 if we can help it
RubyTuesday
911 votes

Joined: January 2019
 
 
 
Friday 4:19 AM
I didn’t go with the flush today as I need points and felt that this was the better way to get them.
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Friday 4:21 AM
Like the Flush as it has the most cuts for improvement and harder to read by opponent. toss J-Q higher value than 3-7 to crib and holding 5-T-J-Q.
zeke76
1393 votes

Joined: August 2018
 
 
 
Friday 5:11 AM
I like the JQ to the crib and it only costs us 1 starting point in the hand. Lousy cut.
Gougie00
5727 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Friday 5:39 AM
I'll play it this way. I went with the flush as well. Down 13, I'll attack.
mfetchCT425
1396 votes

Joined: February 2009
 
 
 
Friday 5:48 AM
Earlier in the game at say a neutral position, would keep the 5-10-J-Q for chance of a 16/17 hand, but at this position, I think the more important goal is to hold opponent back as much as we can so that they are not dealing from good position on 4th street (ie, try to keep them behind hole 95). The flush hold is a much more flexible pegging hand and has lots of cuts for improvement. Plus, the touching J-Q can often catch something in the crib.
JRCeagle78
1054 votes

Joined: June 2016
 
 
 
Friday 6:06 AM
This was an easier decision than if I was the pone.

I took a guess with the T-J and the cut helped me out. But the J-Q may have been the better choice considering how often Kings are discarded.

I considered 5-T-J-Q, but I discounted it because 7-3 in a dealers crib does not usually get too much from the pone.
scottcrib says: My thoughts exactly regarding tossing J-Q in stead of 10-J.
james500
3920 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Friday 6:29 AM
A few flushes available, or maybe 5-10-J-Q.

3-7-10-Q (5-J) allows a lovely discard but a poor hand. I'll pass.

Pone has a bias towards discarding Kings, so a speculative J-Q to my crib may bear fruit. If I choose 10-J however, only the cut of an Ace is unhelpful, whereas 3-5-7-T (J-Q) is unaffected by the cuts of an Ace or a 9.

5-7-10-Q (J-3) won't improve after cuts of an Ace,4 or 9. Places two of Ras' "Key connectors" in my crib though.

3-5-10-Q (7-J) won't improve after an Ace,6 or 9. Two more Key connectors to the crib, but there's no synergy between a Jack and 7, so I'd be sabotaging my crib this way I feel.

"Boom or bust" with 5-10-J-Q. Most of the cuts that help REALLY help, but there's plenty that miss altogether. Discards that total 10, 5-5 being the exception, tend to do little due to Pone's bias against discarding fives. In today's puzzle we already know that one of them is out of circulation too, so we're even less likely to cut one. I'll pass on 3-7 then, even though I'd have nine points before the cut compared to just eight with the various flushes.
Ras2829 says: Hi james500: The 3-7 are not near as effective as "key connectors" to own crib as when tossed to opponent. The 3-7 to own averages 3.333(619) and averages 4.848 (1,333) on the other ide of the board. So it with all discards. To opponent crib only 2/91 discard combinations average less than 4.0. To own crib, 43/91 average less than 4.0. That's huge difference and often leads to the discarding traps that folks fall into. They often note than 7-9, A-3, etc. to own crib don't score well at all. Become lulled into complacency by the low scoring numbers when tossed to own crib, jump off their chair when opponent scores 20 off their 7-9 and 16 points off the A-2 or A-3. It's an entirely different game as dealer and non-dealer, whether considering discarding or pegging options.
Jazzselke
2584 votes

Joined: March 2009
 
 
 
Friday 6:59 AM
More versatile hand, usually prefer JQ over 10J because of the tendency to have Kings tossed. Facecards that help the 510JQ hold will help our JQ throw.
JCM
910 votes

Joined: April 2019
 
 
 
Friday 7:17 AM
73* - 86
I go for 3-5-7-10(flush) discard J-Q.
Starts with 8 pts and puts useful touching cards in crib. J-Q averages 4.8 pts there
Hand/crib could well grow to 17-18 pts. Enough to substantially reduce the distance between us and Opp - especially if he gets a sub-par hand.
JCM
910 votes

Joined: April 2019
 
 
 
Friday 7:19 AM
Today's my Friday 6-game match. I'll try to do better than I did last week, folks. More later.
horus93
1281 votes

Joined: December 2017
 
 
 
Friday 7:56 AM
I like it this way. Checking discardpro I'm surprised J-Q is a better toss to own crib than T-J but I suppose it reflects pone's tendency to chuck a king.

It's a marginal position so we have dual goals. We ideally want to get as far past 86 as we can while holding pone as short of 10 points as we can.
horus93 says: Highest crib+hand min and highest hand max is nothing to shake a stick at in this position imo
horus93 says: Especially in a case like this where both keeps have many cuts that will miss
joekayak
1873 votes

Joined: May 2016
 
 
 
Friday 8:19 AM
We need to move but also keep pone from 95. think this does it.
joekayak says: BTW Is it my imagination o did the computer get dealer and pone switched yesterday for its analysis???
joekayak says: BTW Is it my imagination o did the computer get dealer and pone switched yesterday for its analysis???
Coeurdelion says: The results are just for pegging out, not winning the game. Obviously Dealer has a much better chance of pegging 4pts than Pone does.-
Coeurdelion says: The results are just for pegging out, not winning the game. Obviously Dealer has a much better chance of pegging 4pts than Pone does.-
Ras2829
5151 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Friday 10:26 AM
What's not to like about this lovely flush? Folks tend to think of all those X-pointers (toss in the five too), those cards amount to 5 of the 13 denominations. That's a 61/39 split favoring the cut of something other than a five or ten. The 3-7 to own crib is quite low scoring as well at 3.333 (619). Only a non-club A/9 does not add value to the flush. Holding 5-10-J-Q, A, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, and 8 add nothing. Choosing an off., off., off. pegging strategy although will play off the opening lead unless a X-pointer. Would play that lone 5 to score 2 pegs. How do the 10-J and J-Q compare as discards to own crib?
Ras2829 says: The J-Q 4.827 (1,990)30/91 0-2 23.065%, 3-7 47.589%, 8-11 26.633%, and 12 or more 2.713% while 10-J 4.758 (780) 32/91 0-2 28.649%, 3-7 44.199%, 8-11 2.876%, and 12 or more 1.576%. So the J-Q has the edge in all scoring, scores nearly 20% less cribs of 0-2, and scores 80% more cribs of 12 or more points than does the 10-J. Much of the difference relates to the frequency of the n/d K discard. Although dealer cannot expect n/d to toss a X-point pair, K-K will be the most frequent X-point pair by a very wide margin.
Ras2829 says: Sorry got the wrong figure for the 10-J in the 8-11 column. Above it reads 2.876%; should read 25.876%. Appears that I left the 5 out - all else looks as it should!
JCM
910 votes

Joined: April 2019
 
 
 
Friday 4:40 PM
My 6 games. Only lost my 2nd game. 116-121. Won all the others. Was doing OK in the 2nd, when Gerald(my Opp), at the end of the game, got a 20 pt hand as pone followed followed by 16 dealer. All I could reach was 116.

If my goal is to be 1st - I failed. If my goal is to be in the top 3(they all win some money) - I succeeded. I think top 3 is a reasonable goal given there are 20+ players. I came 2nd today. The guy who sits to my right(Kirk) won every game for 1st.

So - for Sep so far, 2 of 3 Fridays I'm in the top 3. Not bad!

I recorded this hand(against Gerald, as it happens):

28-7* I'm holding: A-A-3-5-7-8. What to discard? I eventually chose the A-8 discard, keeping A-3-5-7, banking on that every cut helps it. And that I stood a chance to get close to 44 as dealer next hand, especially if we pegged more than normal. Gerald and I both did about 10-12 pts of pegging - I pegged a couple more. Ever-growing runs. I think the score at the end of the hand was 43* - 30.(Didn't record that. Nor the cut card - sorry)

I asked Gerald how he would have discarded - he said the 3-7, keeping A-A-5-8.

Who was right? Maybe there's a 3rd discard better than either of those 2?

My report for today :-)
JQT says: My weekly outing at the Seniors Community Room (where I have resided now for fifteen years, in spite of being only sixty years young) ended in an epic battle as well. At one game apiece, we were tied and it was the final game of our best-of-three meeting, and during the Final Deal of this Game 3 tie-breaker, the score itself was also tied and I was Pone at (116-116*). I was dealt Six Spades in the form of (As 5s 6s 7s Ts Js) and so I tried Keep (A 5 6 7) and Toss (T J) and it was against Dealer Jackie with Keep (5 J Q Q) and Toss (6 7). A King of Hearts was Cut. Yes, perhaps Jackie should have retained the (5 6) for pegging I think, but maybe it didn't matter against my hand, as the pegging proceeded: 7 (7) J (17) 6! (23) 5 (28) A (29-1) . Q (10) 5 (15-2) Q (25=1) and the pegging ended with us at (119-117*), thus I won with my First Hand Show. I didn't want to lead my Ace out of fear of getting 'jammed up' with (5 6 7) remaining, and if she had played an 8 Card for (15=2) it was THEN that I would have 'dumped' the "Lone" Ace (and not played the 6 Card for (21-3)?! At a Count of 17, I played the 6 Card to reach a Count of 23, assuming she had no 8 Card, since she never played that to get the (15=2) earlier. With all Six Spades, I certainly had a lot of latitude during the discarding, but maybe it merely gave me more ways to mess up?! Jackie should have indeed retained a better pegging hand, such as Keep (5 6 7 J) and Toss (Q Q), getting rid of those Queens, the card that I was least-likely to be holding (as she had been dealt two of these). But nevertheless, she did make an excellent decision I believe to play the Jack early in response to my 7 Card Lead, as it did allow her to still WIN if I was holding a Queen as my final card. She made a common oversight in that she held TOO MANY POINTS as Dealer, especially when just needing Five Points in order to go out, but I think she pegged well using those cards that she did retain and did so as best as possible.
JCM says: Interesting pegging. I definitely kept a pegging hand, being eager to make 44 for next hand as dealer. But was A-3-5-7 the best keep? Was Gerald right?(His keep starts at 4 pts, while mine starts at 2 pts. I actually overlooked his idea in the heat of the moment.) But I think mine would peg better(as it did). What about 3-5-7-8 as a keep, giving Gerald 2 aces? I'm still wondering - which was the best discard? In any event, I'm beating the "averages" in being in the top 3 in 2 of 3 Fridays so far in Sep, out of 20+ players. I can't complain about that. Or should I? :-)
JCM says: BTW, Gerald says he has played Ras before, in Oregon, about 20 years ago. He can't remember how the games went, though.
Coeurdelion
5592 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Friday 4:48 PM
I think it must be between 5-10-J-Q and 3-5-7-Q (10-J):

5-10-J-Q: 9pts + 3½pts (Schell: 3.58) = 12½pts

3-5-7-Q: 8pts + 4¾pts (Schell: 4.61) = 12¾pts

Potential:

5-10-J-Q: Improves with 555, 9999 + 13xXs = 20 cuts = 20/46 = 43.5% up to 12/16/17pts with 555 + 13xXs = 16 cuts. Plus 12 diamonds for 1pt extra for his nob = 12/46 = 0.26pt.

3-5-7-Q: Improves with 2222, 333, 555, 6666, 777, 8888 + 13xXs = 34 cuts = 34/46 = 73.9% up to 11/12/14pts with 333, 555, 6666, 777, QQQ = 16 cuts. Plus 8 clubs for 1pt extra for the flush = 8/46 = 0.17pt.

Position:

We're 3pts past positional hole and Pone is on target to reach next positional hole. So I'll play Defense for the pegging.

Pegging.

I think the flush will peg better and be harder to read.

Summary:

The flush starts with ¼pt more and also has more cts for improvement. It has a lower maximum but still 16 cuts for 11-14pts. Also it should peg better. So I'll select 10-J to discard.
HalscribCLX
5315 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Friday 4:49 PM
At 73*-86 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_________________Pone's
Defense___Hand___Pegs___Crib_Total____W3 %____W4 %
5-10-J-Q__11.50+(-2.15)+3.72=13.07____25.7____31.0
3-5-7-10__10.65+(-2.33)+4.45=12.77____24.3____29.9
3-5-7-Q___10.65+(-2.28)+4.12=12.49____23.0____29.3

Defense_______L3 %____L4 %
5-10-J-Q______52.7____58.8
3-5-7-10______54.3____60.5
3-5-7-Q_______53.9____61.4

5-10-J-Q is best for expected averages by 0.30pt and is also best for Win %s and Loss %s. So I'll select 3-7 to discard.

After the 9 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.
joekayak says: Looks like the majority (including me) out thought ourselves.
Ras2829 says: HI joekayak: Note that HalscribCLX has chosen defense in which case potential peg points scored by opponent are subtracted from score. That strategy is best served by holding 5-10-J-Q. Thirteen points behind, if choosing offense or optimal, the flush would merge as the better choice as in an offense strategy potential pegs scored by you would be added to score. If choosing an optimal strategy, potential pegs would be shown as net (dealer pegs less n/d pegs). I think!