September 18, 2019

*** This hand was suggested by JQT
105*-111  ?
40%
27%
13%
10%
5%
1%
1%
Total votes: 177
dec
6351 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 3:34 AM
Defense here on the keep and the pegging. A 3 5 7 would be some decent cuts here. A flush in the crib would be extremely lucky. dec
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Wednesday 3:50 AM
We're in serious trouble requiring 16 points while opponent needs only 10. Going with the Flush.
james500
3916 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Wednesday 5:38 AM
I've got the next three hands plus pegging to conjure up sixteen points, if Pone scores fewer than ten points in this one. No need to panic, but a little defensive pegging may be required.

The decision about hand retention comes down to a simple question, "is variety helpful to me here or not?" If so, keep the flush with its w-i-d-e spread of cards. If not, keep the two pairs in the knowledge that Pone is less likely to be able to pair any card I lay down.

It's either one or the other, and I suspect I should've gone with the other. Too late to change now though, I've made my choice and I'll have to face the consequences. Play high if Pone leads low, play low if they play high.
mfetchCT425
1394 votes

Joined: February 2009
 
 
 
Wednesday 5:39 AM
Need some luck to win this one - either a big hand or big crib. Will keep the 4-4-6 gap cards for possible 14 hand with the 5 cut. Pair 8s may hit something in the crib if opponent had to toss a middle card.
Gougie00
5723 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 5:58 AM
One of the each because I want to play defense
Jazzselke
2583 votes

Joined: March 2009
 
 
 
Wednesday 7:02 AM
Which double run to try for? I vote for 446Q because that would be better for pegging than 688Q. Hopefully opponent throws X7, needing 10 they have to keep their best hand.
Ras2829
5146 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 8:23 AM
Choosing a SAFE strategy from the git-go, the flush has the best chance to limit opponent movement down the board. Would like to see opponent advance no more than 7 holes. That's tough at 1/5. N/d has 1/1 shot at 9 points reaching hole 120. Dealer has 1/1 shot at 16 points. So game is very tight for sure. The flush allows more wiggle room on the pegging and potential hand score for flush is much greater than for the 4-4-6-Q. The greater potential hand score exceeds the added potential crib value of 8-8 discard. Will play off the lead although would pair a four believing that was the safest play possible (remember that 4 discard?)
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 9:36 AM
Close Horse Race Today!

This was the penultimate deal of a game I played this same week way back in 2014, five long years ago. Tomorrow's Puzzle is the final deal of that same game.

I was torn between holding the FLUSH and Toss (8 8). These both begin at a 'static' Four Points, but I think the higher PAIR will do slightly better in our Crib, and the lower-ranking 4 Card PAIR should peg a bit safer.

But since this did extend to another deal, and these two choices may be very close, the real test may come tomorrow morning.
horus93
1281 votes

Joined: December 2017
 
 
 
Wednesday 9:41 AM
Checking the numbers with discardpro it looks like my gut lead me astray today!
cribbagepogo
3249 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Wednesday 1:21 PM
Need a barn burner and some luck. Probably killed my own crib.
HalscribCLX
5312 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 2:47 PM
At 105*-111 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Pone's
Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total___W1 %____L1 %
4S-6-8S-Q_6.37+(-2.15)+3.79=8.01____15.4____50.9
4-4-6-Q___4.35+(-2.20)+5.39=7.54____21.7____47.5
6-8-8-Q___4.00+(-2.28)+5.67=7.39____17.7____47.8
4-4-8-8___5.57+(-2.09)+3.09=6.57____10.6____43.9

The flush has the best expected average but 4-4-6-Q has the best chance of winning this hand. So I'll select 8-8 to discard.

After the 6 cut I'll play play Defense to the lead.
JCM
910 votes

Joined: April 2019
 
 
 
Wednesday 2:57 PM
105*-111
Opp will probably win. He averages 10 pts as pone and that's what he needs to win on first count. Our hope is to restrict him to less than 10 pts(Peg defensively!), and yet make 16pts for ourselves between hand and crib(Discard offensively - if possible, here.) Tall order.

My choice - the flush: 4-6-8-Q(flush) Discard (4-8)

With my choice we will only start with 4 pts in hand, and expect maybe 4 pts in crib. Total - only 8 pts before cut. But with a 5 or 7 cut(8/46) our hand will expand to 11 or 9 pts respectively. New totals are 15 and 13 respectively. Add one more if the cut is a spade. Would make the pegging easier to allow us to win this hand.

If we can't do that, an A,3,4,6,8, 9 or Q cut (24/46) will grow our hand to 6 pts. New total hand/crib = 10 pts now. Add 1 pt if the cut is a spade. With a couple of pegging pts we may get close enough to peg out as dealer next hand, before Opp's first count.

Pegging: Try to peg defensively(to restrict Opp.), but at same time try to get a couple of points here. Possible conflicting advice, I know. It's a judgement call at any one moment.
JCM says: Halscrib posted while I was writing this up. Seems I may have got it wrong. At least the flush had the best expected average.
JQT says: A lot of players treat AVERAGES as you describe in your first sentence: let's re-evaluate. By "average" we mean, by DEFINITION, that it is likely to occur 50% of the time. So when we flip a coin, the odds are 50% of HEADS, and 50% of TAILS. When we say Pone moves Ten Holes on AVERAGE, or that Dealer moves Sixteen Holes on AVERAGE, this means half of the time they will do so, and half of the time, they will not. Therefore, before looking at our cards, we already have a 50% chance that Pone shall be "short" and allow us to count both Hand and Crib. But since we now only stand a 50% chance of getting a NET Total of Sixteen Holes, we only have that same chance or 50% odds of scoring Sixteen Holes total. However, Pone gets to go FIRST; and meanwhile, we get all those advantages that accrue toward the Dealer in Cribbage. Now, after we look at our Hand, yes, our odds do now perhaps begin to slide below 50% here, but only by a little bit: our hand is BELOW AVERAGE, but our Crib might become average if it contains a PAIR. And we MIGHT Cut a Jack! So in summary: Averages attained ONLY MEAN that a player has attained a 50% chance. This is why RAS' Critical Position Zones or CPZs are so helpful, as he teaches us to "get as deep into that zone as possible." And that's because each hole we can reach BEYOND the average increases our chances markedly.
JCM says: JQT - thanks for reminding me that, in this hand, before we look at our cards, pone has about a 50% chance of winning. Means he also has a 50% chance of not winning this hand. We may not go out this hand, either.