September 17, 2019

*** This hand was suggested by Ras2829
28*-23  ?
32%
20%
20%
10%
7%
4%
1%
1%
0%
Total votes: 191
cribbagepogo
3250 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Tuesday 3:06 AM
Can't muss with 5/K in crib and keep two sets together.
mrob2199
1429 votes

Joined: February 2009
 
 
 
Tuesday 3:27 AM
Obviously a poor hand here as dealer-I’ll keep the 4 points and figure the cut card will help either the hand or the crib-albeit not too much unless it’s a 5-we can playgood defense here if needed-as our hold is very well spread out-I think the 2-8 is a tad better for our crib-I’m sure someone will provide the numbers later
Ras2829 says: Hi mrop2199: Of course what you think is so turns out to be so. That's a good thing. For those opting to hold four points from this hand, my empirical data shows A-9 discard to own crib at 3.49 (614) and 2-8 3.822 (769).
mrob2199 says: Thanks Ras! Obviously neither one of those discards is vey appetizing!
Ras2829 says: BTW am not high on either A-9 or 2-8 discard to own crib. Both combinations need more help than n/d will normally give and then need a boost from the starter card as well. Both score 0-2 points over 30% of the time with 2-8 at 32.886% and A-9 at 33.191%. They do look much different on the other end of the scale. For cribs of 8 points or more A-9 tallies only 14.869% while 2-8 scores nearly 50% more at 21.914%. Of the cribs of 8 or more the 2-8 scores three times as many as does A-9. Most likely way for A-9 to score 12 points is for n/d to discard 2-3 or 5-5. What are the chances of that?
dec
6352 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Tuesday 3:28 AM
Where might those face cards be? Pointing to the other side of the table. Eight-two might find itself in a six-seven-eight combination. More of a defensive pegging scheme with these cards.Starting with the four in the hand this way. dec
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Tuesday 4:05 AM
Keep 4 points to start and the higher valued 2-8 to our crib. As rob says "poor hand as dealer" today. Starter helps hand and possibly the crib.
zeke76
1390 votes

Joined: August 2018
 
 
 
Tuesday 4:28 AM
So many plausible options today—28, A9, 89, K5..
usacoder
968 votes

Joined: August 2019
 
 
 
Tuesday 5:26 AM
Great to get that A from the turn.
zeke76 says: You ain't kiddin'
james500
3917 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Tuesday 5:32 AM
Not too keen on A-9 or 2-8, so I'll try 8-9.
Every cut helps me somehow.
K-A eleven and K-5-A sixteen.
mfetchCT425
1395 votes

Joined: February 2009
 
 
 
Tuesday 5:38 AM
Keep max points in hand. Like 2-8 to our crib more than A-9. Nice spread of cards for efficient pegging.
horus93
1281 votes

Joined: December 2017
 
 
 
Tuesday 6:32 AM
As valuable as 8-9 and 5-K are in the crib neither are so good as to sacrifice two sure points here. 2-8 is a significantly better toss to own crib than a-9 because the ace is less likely to form runs.

The RP is +10/-11: we're 10 points past our par of 18 and pone is 11 points short of his par of 34. With only 8 known points (9 with the "go") I'd play offense to the cut.
horus93 says: *neither IS so good!
JRCeagle78
1054 votes

Joined: June 2016
 
 
 
Tuesday 6:42 AM
When looking over this hand, it came down to 2 choices (8-2)(9-1). I have found that 8-2 is only a slightly better discard to your own crib. The overall quality of this hand is not the best but the dealer still has the ability to both have some pegging and to limit the pegging of the pone.
Jazzselke
2583 votes

Joined: March 2009
 
 
 
Tuesday 7:02 AM
Sometimes you will hear "throw the odd cards to your crib". Certainly true with the key connectors of 3, 5 and 7.However. with the choice of A9 or 28, the latter is preferred as already mentioned. A 2 is a more dangerous card than an ace and 8 more so than a 9.
Gougie00
5724 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Tuesday 7:02 AM
I'll try it this way. Nice cut!
HK343
178 votes

Joined: July 2012
 
 
 
Tuesday 8:30 AM
I see some variation of this dilemma come up quite often while playing it seems. 82 is a tick better in our crib versus the A9, so I usually lean that direction. A9 when it’s not my crib.
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Tuesday 9:02 AM
Toss (5 K) is tempting, but I'll go with Toss (8 9) today.
JQT says: Frankly, I didn't give much merit to either Toss (2 8) or Toss (A 9), although if I were to do so, clearly the former is much superior to the latter. Independently, in our own Crib, an Ace is inferior to a Deuce, and a 9 Card is inferior to an 8 Card. But I am not too fond of Discards that 'add up to ten,' as we're very unlikely to get any 5 Card help from our Opponent. Sure, we may Cut a 5 Card, but after Toss (8 9), we have twice that chances of cutting either a 7 Card or a Ten Card! Retaining our POINTS with Keep (A 5 9 K) may have some merit, but after Keep (A 2 5 K) and Toss (8 9), I think those "touching" cards in our Crib shall 'make up' for the missing point, and both our two-card "Magic Eleven" and our three-card "Sweet Sixteen" should add some "Icing on the Cake."
RubyTuesday
909 votes

Joined: January 2019
 
 
 
Tuesday 10:20 AM
As several people have said before, 2 8 is more valuable in my crib than A 9.
JCM
910 votes

Joined: April 2019
 
 
 
Tuesday 10:58 AM
I go for the (2-8) discard. Keep A-5-9-K. Every cut helps either hand or crib. So between them we're guaranteed 6 pts. A few more pegging pts puts us within 10 pts of making 44 next hand as pone. We should be OK this way, even with this bad hand.

JCM
910 votes

Joined: April 2019
 
 
 
Tuesday 11:06 AM
I ran across this hand when beginning a computer game. Score 0*-0 and I was dealt:

Ah-3s-4s-5s-5d-Ks 0*-0

Ordinarily we'd keep the double run. But the flush may complicate that decision.

Double run or flush?

What do you folks think?
Ras2829 says: Hi JCM: It pays to flush and even more so here. The flush starts with nine points and the A-5 averages nearly six points in the crib. Playing defense as dealer of opening hand makes the flush hold even more imperative. Pegging defensively, the King is a fine escape card (perhaps the best in cribbage).
james500 says: Hi John, hope all's well. FWIW, from the hand you describe, I too would keep the 3-4-5-K flush with A-5 to the crib. If there was no flush option, I'd at least give some consideration to 3-5-5-K (A-4) rather than the double-run. A-4-5-5 (3-K) catches the eye too, but is probably not worth choosing.
JCM says: I went for the flusk, so I guess we have a consensus! A 7s was cut BTW. Gave me 12pts in the hand and actually 8 in the crib.
Coeurdelion
5589 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Tuesday 3:42 PM
Three likely hands I think 2-5-8-K (A-9), A-5-9-K (2-8) and A-2-8-9 (5-K):

2-5-8-K: 4pts + 3½pts (Schell: 3.40) = 7½pts

A-5-9-K: 4pts + 3½pts (Schell: 3.66) = 7½pts

A-2-8-9: 0pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.66) = 6½pts

Potential:

2-5-8-K: Improves with 222, 3333, 555, 7777, 888 + 15xXs = 32 cuts = 32/46 = 69.6% up to 8pts with 222, 555, 888, KKK = 12 cuts.

A-5-9-K: Improves with AAA, 4444, 555, 6666, 999 + 15xXs = 32 = 32/46 = 69.6% up to 8/10pts with AAA, 555, 999, KKK = 12 cuts.

A-2-8-9: Improves with AAA, 222, 3333, 4444, 555, 6666, 7777, 888, 999 = 31 cuts = 31/46 = 67.5% up to 4/5pts with 3333, 4444, 555, 6666, 7777 = 19 cuts.

Position:

It looks like it is third deal and we were First Dealer. We have improved our position and have a lead of 5pts. I think we can afford to try to improve our position further and play offense.

Pegging:

I would expect A-2-8-9 to peg best with two good pegging cards.

Summary:

A-5-9-K and 2-5-8-K are very similar but Schell puts 2-8 at 0.26pt more in the crib. The fact that they are suited as a little bit more (about 0.04pt). So of the two I'd keep A-5-9-K. A-2-8-9 starts with 1pt less and has one less cut for improvement but has 19 cuts to 4/5pts which is a tremendous improvement over 0pts. Also it should peg better and with the 5-K to the crib every cut will improve either hand or crib. So I think I'll throw the suited 5-K.
HalscribCLX
5312 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Tuesday 3:44 PM
At 28*-23 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Pone's
Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total___W7 %____W8 %
A-5-9-K___6.04+(-1.91)+3.64=7.77____35.4____56.7
A-2-5-K___4.48+(-1.65)+4.84=7.67____35.3____55.8
A-2-8-9___2.61+(-1.89)+6.72=7.44____33.9____54.6
2-5-8-K___6.04+(-2.15)+3.36=7.25____34.0____55.5

Defense_______L7 %____L8 %
A-5-9-K_______17.6____18.8
A-2-5-K_______18.5____19.7
A-2-8-9_______18.7____20.7
2-5-8-K_______17.7____19.7


A-5-9-K is best for expected averages by 0.10ptand is slightly best for Win/Loss %s so I'll select the suited 2-8.

After the A cut I'll play Defense to the lead.
Ras2829
5147 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Tuesday 4:55 PM
For .1 of a point difference in total value, RAS prefers the better crib score, and improved pegging with the 8-9 discard. JQT made that choice much earlier. As dealer of first hand, it's def., def., def., and play off the lead although would score 15-2 with the lone five on any X-pointer.
JCM says: Ras - You would challenge Hal? I thought Hal was considered the "final word" here :-)
Ras2829 says: Hi JCM: Try very hard not to challenge anybody on here including the cribbot and the genius of Hal Mueller. With total combined values so close, my preference is for the potentially larger crib and the better pegging numbers. BTW have been playing this hand as selected today for a few years now. Suspect with only .1 difference on a defense strategy,, believe in situations requiring offense, the 8-9 discard would tip the scales in favor of retaining A-2-5-K noticeably.
Hillchem says: The value of this site is due to the fact that there are many incredibly talented and studious voices here. I'll admit that I find the days when the experts voice their agreement the most convenient. Hal is an incredible program. However, on the occasions that Ras offers a disagreement, I try to take note. If there is to be a "final word", I'd crown Ras. Let me link to his hall of fame page: http://www.cribbage.org/NewSite/hof/030_RasmussenE.asp .
Ras2829 says: Hi Hillchem: Thanks so much for your kind words.