August 24, 2019

*** This hand was suggested by mrob2199
95-100*  ?
51%
25%
10%
10%
1%
0%
0%
Total votes: 175
JQT
4136 votes

Joined: October 2008

 
 
 
Saturday 3:00 AM
With our opponent Leading at Hole 100 and Dealing, I am going to look for anything to 'jam up the works' of the Dealer's Crib.

I'd Toss (9 K) here if I thought it was a whole lot better than Toss (7 K), but as we were dealt three Middle Cards, I think Toss (7 K) will do nearly as well today.

The Truly Brave among us might Toss (A K); the Super Scared may choose Toss (6 K)! I'd be hard-pressed to criticize either.

We need to prevent Dealer Pegs, so I don't wish to get stuck with that Lone Ace; therefore, let's lead it!
Guest says: Path must have been crossed by a black cat on the way to the tournament.
Hillchem says: I have to agree with you. Good defensive discard and keep two points. Should be able to evade letting dealer peg too many points.
james500
3895 votes

Joined: June 2013

 
 
 
Saturday 3:11 AM
On average, Dealer will score 26 points over the next two hands. I need to hold them to no more than 20, and K-9 is a good "anchor".
dec
6327 votes

Joined: April 2008

 
 
 
Saturday 3:18 AM
What is more essential now a chance at ten points or balking the opponents crib. Something in my mind about giving up a seven on fourth street. Even thou a chance at 105 or deeper would be great I have to hope for the extreme lows for them. Ace lead. dec
joekayak
1873 votes

Joined: May 2016

 
 
 
Saturday 3:25 AM
I'm already barely inside my 4th street CPZ. Opponent is dealing and is already beyond it. Must become a chicken and go BALK BALK BALK. (Say it out loud.) Given this hand K-9 it is.
Rosemarie44
2051 votes

Joined: March 2016

 
 
 
Saturday 4:41 AM
I must be the truly "Brave" as I tossed A-K to dealer. After coffee and a later start this morning, I will look at previous discard options that were chosen earlier today.
Ras2829 says: Hi Rosemarie44: Cribbage Prof agrees with your choice.
Rosemarie44 says: Good morning, Ras. Thank you for CP's vote of confidence. Seafood buffet - good?
Guest says: Rosy babe is on a seafood died, she sees it and eats it
Gougie00
5702 votes

Joined: March 2008

 
 
 
Saturday 4:44 AM
I went wide with the A-K. The Cribbage Fairy hates me today. Lead the 9?
RubyTuesday
897 votes

Joined: January 2019

 
 
 
Saturday 5:25 AM
I was torn between 7 K and A K. Not so much Truly Brave as Truly Got It Wrong.
Rosemarie44 says: how do you know you got it wrong?
RubyTuesday says: The grass is always greener when I see the turn up and think how I could have made a different throw which would have won the day!
Rosemarie44 says: Hi: Just because the starter does not appear to be helpful, it doesn't mean we are wrong in our discard and retention choices. Halscrib goes by expected averages as you can see in the comments section below. So according to Halscrib and Ras your choice is correct.
zeke76
1367 votes

Joined: August 2018

 
 
 
Saturday 6:15 AM
Defense. Too bad the cut gave them a 15-2 in the crib.
glmccuskey
4075 votes

Joined: April 2011

 
 
 
Saturday 6:16 AM
At 95 I wanted to keep the two points. I’ll lead the ace and peg as defensively as I can.
mfetchCT425
1382 votes

Joined: February 2009

 
 
 
Saturday 6:46 AM
I think our best chance to win this game is to balk opponent’s crib and try to keep them back as far as possible, so defense is in order today. Will retain my 2 points and toss the defensive 7-K. This will guarantee us to be at least to hole 98 as dealer next round before the cut. This hold gives us a nice variety of cards that should allow us to stay away from any runs and should be difficult I think for opponent to read and peg on. We will need some luck to win this one but if opponent is dealt a sub-par hand and we successfully ball their crib, we can possibly turn the tables here.
mfetchCT425 says: Should say balk not ball above, lol. Watching too much baseball lately I guess.
mrob2199 says: Mike does my thinking make any sense or did I just get crazy lucky?
mfetchCT425 says: Hi Rob. It’s such an interesting way of thinking about this scenario. To be honest, I did not consider that option. It was either 9-K, A-K, or 7-K for me. You definitely had some breaks go your way at the end with Doug Page, with the cut and with his toss of a pair of 2s. I mean he could have just as easily tossed something like 8-8 and then would have had a 12 crib, but that’s what makes this game the best game in the world in my opinion. I can see the logic of the 7-9 as it has that chance of totally missing dealers toss and thus resulting in a minimal or zero crib. Always great to hear your logic and others on this site. Fantastic forum for all cribbage players. Btw, nice reasoning by HK343 as well. Any time your strategy matches Robs you are In the greatest of company.
mfetchCT425 says: I am a little puzzled why Halscrib opted for an offensive strategy for the pegging in this scenario...
HK343
178 votes

Joined: July 2012

 
 
 
Saturday 7:30 AM
I threw 79, and held zero points. Trying to blank the crib with the all or nothing toss. Dealer’s most likely crib tosses involve X5, A4, 23, or 78. We blank three of those here. Don’t have enough wiggle room to throw AK or K7 here, as a small crib (four points) likely ends the game as much as a big one does anyway. It’s either zero crib or we lose. And keeping the Ace to lead from. We need a lot of luck, but let’s see what happens when the page turns.
Rosemarie44 says: Hi HK343: Welcome to the site. Glad you joined us this morning.
james500 says: Hi. 7-9 is a bold choice, but I see the merit in your argument. Very interesting to hear an idea that differs from the orthodoxy.
Hillchem says: That can be a good strategy when a loss seems imminent. It's a all-or-nothing choice that will sometimes pay off.
HK343 says: Thank you, Rosemarie. I read the site most days, going to try and post more often with comments. Just tough to do sometimes on the little iPhone with these old eyes. LOL
JQT
4136 votes

Joined: October 2008

 
 
 
Saturday 1:11 PM
The Dealer will of course attempt to energize his or her own Crib with two cards that can "boost" the Crib Value.

As an aside, I don't believe that any of these hands will peg very well for us as Pone, especially in the realm of defense, where the 'oddball' Lone Ace stands out as a potential liability rather than an asset.

But also, maybe we could investigate just how many Cut Cards will help each of the '6 choose 2' or fifteen possible Discard Choices today. Let's take a look at them:

Toss (A 6) 13 Cuts (AAA, 666, 8888, 999)
Toss (A 7) 10 Cuts (AAA, 777, 8888)
Toss (A 9) 13 Cuts (AAA, 5555, 666, 999)
Toss (A J) 14 Cuts (AAA, 4444, 5555, JJJ)
Toss (A K) 14 Cuts (AAA, 4444, 5555, KKK)
Toss (6 7) 21 Cuts (2222, 5555, 666, 777, 8888, 999)
Toss (6 9) 06 Cuts (666, 999)
Toss (6 J) 13 Cuts (5555, 666, 999, JJJ)
Toss (6 K) 13 Cuts (5555, 666, 999, KKK)
Toss (7 9) 13 Cuts (666, 777, 8888, 999)
Toss (7 J) 14 Cuts (5555, 777, 8888, JJJ)
Toss (7 K) 14 Cuts (5555, 777, 8888, KKK)
Toss (9 J) 17 Cuts (5555, 666, 999, TTTT, JJJ)
Toss (9 K) 13 Cuts (5555, 666, 999, KKK)
Toss (J K) 14 Cuts (5555, JJJ, QQQQ, KKK)

Since only "same cards" can aid Toss (6 9), it 'chimes in' today with the fewest possible Cuts that help, a total of only 6 Cuts.

But among the fifteen unique discard choices, Toss (6 9) is also the only selection that begins by "giving away" the (15-2) for Two Points right from the start. That means not only two holes less for us as Pone, but more importantly, two holes more for the Dealer!

The next lowest tally is 10 Cuts, for Toss (A 7). And interestingly enough, this Discard Choice would also allow us to retain our own Two Points!

Therefore, if we are looking for that elusive "all or nothing" Discard Choice today, perhaps using some of HK343's interesting logic (above) today, Toss (A 7) has some merit. But its 'bias' however is geared more towards the frequency of the "random" Cut, and not towards the Dealer's "most likely" choices. - j q t -
Andy (muesli64)
2221 votes

Joined: August 2009

 
 
 
Saturday 1:37 PM
A-K. because 7-K can have expensive consequences via the 7. Look at the position. 10 or 12 in the crib is the end.
JCM
910 votes

Joined: April 2019

 
 
 
Saturday 1:49 PM
I chose the J-K discard, keeping 9-6 as 2 points and intending to lead the Ace.

Looks like the "greats" here disagree with me. Also, JQT has pointed out there are 14 cuts boosting the J-K discard, but only 10 cuts boosting the A-7 discard. Holding the J gives us a chance at nobs as well.

So, I guess I'm learning today :-)
Ras2829
5125 votes

Joined: November 2008

 
 
 
Saturday 2:19 PM
It would seem the potential hand value of holding the two gappers 7-9 and 9-J will offset the small difference in averages of 7-K 4.246 (1,953 11/91 and A-K 4.331 (2,571) 13/91. The 7-K is 20% more likely to score 12 or more points.
Ras2829 says: Certainly with dealer at hole 100, our chances of winning are about 10%. So it's def., def., def. Will lead the 7 to break the lower sequence. If dealer plays on my lead, it's a likely sign of a low-scoring hand. In order to have a reasonable chance to win need to limit dealer to no more than 17 points on this and the next hand. What are chances to limit dealer to 9? That's 1 in 10! Then we would need to follow by limiting n/d of next hand to 8. What are chances of doing that? That's 1 of 3.5. If we succeeded in doing that, opponent would need to peg four as dealer. All of that assumes that we will get our 26 points over three counts.
JQT says: With our Opponent "Ahead and Dealing" at Hole 100, it seems like we're at a very high risk of losing today after the completion of Next Deal if our Opponent can score a Dozen Holes or more as a *combined total* of Pegging, Hand, and Crib during This Deal. Therefore, I think we are perhaps 'as good as lost' if the Dealer gets a Crib worth anything close to Ten Points here. And under further scrutiny, we are probably in fact in great danger if the Dealer can obtain a Crib worth even Six Points! This game therefore seems beyond our control if the Dealer gets a Crib that scores toward the higher end of the scale, and thus our chances of 'snagging' a rare Victory from the 'Jaws of Defeat' seem to be more closely linked toward the Dealer getting a Crib that tallies toward the other extreme, i.e., closer or equal to Zero Points. Thus, I think our *primary* focus should be on finding a way to increase the odds of the Dealer getting 'blanked' in the Crib here. I tend to believe that this would suggest ideas such as throwing our King with a Middle Card, perhaps even the notorious Toss (6 K)!
mrob2199
1407 votes

Joined: February 2009

 
 
 
Saturday 2:22 PM
HK pretty much sums up my thoughts on this hand-we basically have nothing in our hand,so our only thought should be to limit the dealer in his crib and pegging-we need a lot of things to go right for this plan to succeed but if the right circumstances pop up we have to be there to take advantage of it-this is what I like to refer to as an all or nothing throw-the 79 occasionally gives up 12 but often times 0 or 2-so you must factor that into your decision-Also you have to factor in the mindset of the dealer at this point-he is going to expect you to discard something like 10-k to the crib-so if he has a marginal hand with a 5 in it,he might choose to discard it to his own crib to go with the expected picture cards from me-this would also mean he has kept little cards or an assortment of non picture cards to maximize his pegging opportunities-now by keeping the horrendous hand of A-6-J-K,there is no way for him to predict that hold-we lead the ace,hope it gets by,and play off the rest of the hand-I feel this is our best chance to eventually gain victory here-I liken it to a basketball game where the trailing team fouls the leading team and hopes they miss-if they don’t they will win-and if the dealer picks up 4556 here,well there’s nothing we can do-but fortune sometimes shines on the prepared -actually this hand occurred against the great Doug Page in Raleigh-the cut was a 5- so I had 4 points-but he only had a 4 point hand,and his discard of 2-2 didn’t match with the 5-7-9 so only a 2 crib-I was fortunate to cut into a 12 the next hand so I ended up winning-obviously I caught some lucky breaks here but I had a plan and it ended up coming through
Ras2829 says: Hi mrob2199: Have certainly discarded as you suggest here and often advise folks if playing defense, "don't worry about whether you hold 2 points or zero." BTW heartily agreed with your advice to JCM of yesterday to discard 5-K and move down the board. I opted for A-K discard today.
Coeurdelion
5574 votes

Joined: October 2007

 
 
 
Saturday 5:24 PM
I'd like to keep the 2pts and throw a baulking discard. A-K I estimate at 4½pts (Schell: 4.30), 7-K I estimate at 4¼pts (Schell: 4.27). As per Schell these are very close (within 0.03pt) and as the A-K leaves the close 6-7 I'll choose A-K to discard.
HalscribCLX
5297 votes

Joined: February 2008

 
 
 
Saturday 5:26 PM
At 95-100* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs__Crib___Total___W1 %___W2 %
6-7-9-J___4.41+1.52+(-4.33)=1.60____0.0____7.0
A-6-9-J___3.98+1.33+(-4.15)=1.16____0.0____5.7
6-7-9-K___3.91+1.65+(-4.83)=0.73____0.0____6.1
A-6-7-9___4.35+1.56+(-5.12)=0.69____0.0____5.9
6-9-J-K___3.89+1.33+(-4.64)=0.58____0.0____5.5
A-6-9-K___3.48+1.28+(-4.65)=0.11____0.0____4.8
A-6-7-J___2.54+1.43+(-4.00)=(-0.03)_0.0____4.3

Offense______l1 %_____l2 %
6-7-9-J______11.1_____70.1
A-6-9-J______10.4_____69.6
6-7-9-K______11.7_____71.4
A-6-7-9______15.9_____73.1
6-9-J-K______11.5_____70.4
A-6-9-K______11.0_____71.0
A-6-7-J______10.1_____70.7

6-7-9-J is best for expected averages by 0.44pt and is slightly best for Win %s. A-6-7-J is lowest for Loss %s because of the low scoring 9-K but even so I'll select A-K to discard.

After the 4 cut I'll lead the 6 and play Defense:

Lead_____________Dealer's Pegging Pts.
6_______________________(-2.26)
9_______________________(-2.38)
7_______________________(-2.55)
J_______________________(-2.66)
JQT says: It seems to me we are more likely to conclude (lose or win) this game during the Next Deal, as forecast by the first stat's that focus on using the HIGHEST W2% (Second Column or Next Deal) of 7%; but then it says, "A-6-7-J is lowest for Loss %s because of the low scoring 9-K" ... yet this is specifically for the L1 % (First column or This Deal) - should it not also focus more on using the lowest L2 % numbers as well?