Wednesday 3:00 AM

"Ahead and Dealing" was a rather old idea of mine for the title of a Cribbage Compendium of sorts, something my estate would perhaps publish posthumously as a bit of a "teaser" to my real life's work, a Cribbage Novella, "Principia Discardia."

But as most of you know, with our best laid plans often going awry and all, it never came to fruition. And besides, I'm still alive, which I sometimes find unsettling. Let's get down to work.

We seem to enjoy many options today, including but probably not limited to Toss (9 9), Toss (5 9), and Toss (3 5). Actually, it might be limited to those three, but as we can see, it's not like we don't enjoy a selection!

If we forgo the RUN and retain the six-point hand, we know that with Keep (2 4 9 9) that *any* of Eight Cuts (222, 444, 99) that 'match' any one of our cards would automatically turn those six points into a dozen. And for our trouble, we would also enjoy getting a 5 Card in our Crib!

And yet Keep (2 3 4 5) has maybe even better prospects for growth, and in addition, places actual points into our Crib. This is getting more and more complicated, isn't it? The 5 Card belongs in our Crib, does it not? And yet won't that Long RUN peg a whole lot better than that ... other "thing"? (The answer I think we're looking for here is, "yes.")

And sure, we could *still* get a 5 Card into our Crib after Toss (5 9), but is this a way to activate our Crib, or is it a way to stymie our Crib?! Are you asking me or telling me? We do know that any form of discarding a 5 Card should exceed Toss (9 9) in our Crib, but this is not so straightforward today. We don't know what we don't know: Unknown Unknowns.

Let's allow both the RUN and the "PEAR" (PAIR) to live today: we'll Keep (2 3 4 5) and Toss (9 9), and I'm sure we won't be alone.

It irks me however to NOT have a 5 Card in my Crib, so perhaps with some slight amount of divine intervention, Pone shall find it in his or her heart to place one there. Actually, we'd prefer help in the form of either a 6 Card or a 9 Card, which are both in fact much more likely to occur.

   

Wednesday 3:15 AM

Going with 9-9 to our crib and holding a hand that increases with every cut for a minimum of 6 points to a maximum of 12. Sixteen cuts increase value of hand to 9, 10, or 12 points.
Tossing 5-9 which looks preferable to our crib has 4 cuts (7777) that keep hand at 5 points. Fifteen cuts increase the value of hand to 9 or 12 points for comparison.

   

Wednesday 3:41 AM

I do not think the 3-5 option for me does not make up for the potential of pegging to try to make that next par. dec

   

Wednesday 3:56 AM

This position is somewhat similar to yesterday-we are dealing with a slight lead in good position and we have about an average hand-I prefer to keep the 6 points here with the nice 3-5 discard-the 2-4-9-9 should peg decently and with little risk-one thing to remember if you decide to keep 2-3-4-5-you MAY peg well with it,but you could also get CRUSHED in pegging with it-so with pone in a reasonably safe position for us there is no need to help springboard him with a pegging war-let’s keep him down and take our reasonably safe 15-20 pegs here

   

Wednesday 4:12 AM

Went with the 9-9.

   

Wednesday 4:48 AM

5-9 from me.

Plenty of helpful cuts for the hand, and a 5 card in my crib.

My 9 card reply to an X lead can be from an eleven or, preferably, from a sixteen:

X(10)-9(19)-X(29)-2(31/2) or,
X(10)-9(19)-5(24)-4(28)-GO-3(31/5).

   

Wednesday 5:18 AM

I went with 2-4-9-9(3-5). To me it is a balanced way to discard, when we are in a comfortable position as sealer(50*-45)
Rob really explained my reasoning as well as I could ever do.

   

Wednesday 5:33 AM

I wanted to keep the 2-3-4 together for chance of 12 points. With non dealer at 45 will take any pegs offered, including pairing the lead.

   

Wednesday 6:05 AM

I would not break up this straight. That extra point or two we receive from those frequent face cuts with this hold (2-3-4-5) vs the other popular holds (2-3-4-9, 2-4-9-9) may make a difference down the stretch. Many cuts increase the hand to an above average hand as well. We have a 3-card magic 11 and think this hand will peg relatively well. Also, pone may toss defensively with something like 6-X or 7-X, which will work well with our pair of 9s.

   

Wednesday 6:10 AM

I prefer holding 6+2 (toss 3-5) rather than 5+2 (toss 5-9), with the ideal cut being a 4. I will play cautious offense in the pegging and try to wrangle my way to 60+ to receive deal on the next hand.

   

Wednesday 6:11 AM

Given a choice, I really want a 5 in my crib. Keep the 3 card run also, so 5-9 to me. Read here that a 5 and any card in my crib mathematically beats all pairs (bar 5-5) so 5-9 should be better than 9-9.

   

Wednesday 6:31 AM

I actually submitted this hand a couple years ago. Interestingly, I had this hand in a playoff match and played 2349, threw 59. I still think that is a great pegging hand, with a Magic 11 and a 34 left for a possible 5 trap in the second series. But I now prefer the 35 over 59 in the crib, and starting off with 6 points. 2345, throw 99 is also viable, but as Rob explains it can be vulnerable to disadvantaged pegginv. and we are in strong position.

   

Wednesday 8:44 AM

I'm surprised fewer people went for the 9-5 or 3-5 but this is how I'd do it, too. I imagine it will be close today.

IMHO 2-4-9-9 is too defensive at this RP but both 2-3-4-5 and 2-3-4-9 could peg well on offense.

With pone way back at 45 I don't see any reason not to play all-out offense to maintain or strengthen our position.

   

Wednesday 9:31 AM

My position is decent and my hand should peg well. There is enough spread in my hand to limit the pone's pegging, but not eliminate it. (2345) could be either a good pegging hand or a disaster so I chose to avoid it.

   

Wednesday 1:56 PM

The 2-3-4-5 is a better hand than most folks realize as dealer. Still encourage folks to look for ways to put that five in the crib. That will work if you can match the 5- with 5, J, K, 10, or Q in that order. Here the potential hand value of 2-3-4-5 is enhanced by every possible starter card. So the potential hand score is greater by .5 point or so. RAS needs to have the deal in 2nd Street CPZ (43-47). Dealer is already at hole 50: so it's off. off., off., for me. The 2-3-4-5 with four cards of five and below has the pegging edge by another .5 or so. How do the 9-9 and 5-9 compare in the crib? The 9-9 average is 5.213 (1,198) 256/91 and 5-9 average is 5.434 (279) 21/91. That .2 advantage of 2-3-4-9 with 5-9 discard is not enough to effect the edge of 2-3-4-5 in potential hand score and pegging. The downside of the 9-9 discard is that it scores two points 34.146%. Conversely, the 9-9 average is boosted substantially by cribs of 12 points or more as it scores three times as many of those as does 5-9. Try it - you'll like it!

   

Wednesday 2:18 PM

Text book.

   

Wednesday 3:24 PM

My first thought was to put 3 5 into my crib but decided that throwing 9 9 left me with a much better hand.

   

Wednesday 3:32 PM

I think its between 2-3-4-5 (9-9), 2-3-4-9 (5-9) and 2-4-9-9 (3-5):

2-3-4-5: 4pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.16) = 9¼pts

2-3-4-9: 5pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.43) = 10¼pts

2-4-9-9: 6pts + 6pts (Schell: 5.97) = 12pts

Potential:

2-3-4-5: Improves with AAAA, 222, 333, 444, 555, 6666, 7777, 8888, 99 + 16xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 7/8/9/10/12pts with AAAA, 222, 333, 444, 555, 6666, 8888 + 16xXs = 40cuts.

2-3-4-9: Improves with AAAA, 222, 333, 444, 555, 6666, 8888, 99 + 16xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3%

2-4-9-9: Improves with 222, 333, 444, 6666, 99 = 15 cuts = 15/46 = 32.6% up to 9/10/12pts with all cuts.

Position:

We're 6pts past positional hole and Pone is 15pts short of where they need to be. So I'll play Defense.

Pegging:

Playing Defense I think 2-4-9-9 will peg best.

Summary:

2-4-9-9 starts with 1¾/2¾pts more han the other two and although it has many fewer cuts for improvement I think it will still be best especially as I believe it will peg best. So I'll throw the 3-5.

   

Wednesday 3:33 PM

At 50*-45 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Pone's
Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total____W5 %____W6 %
2-3-4-5___8.65+(-2.07)+5.03=11.61____36.1____66.3
2-3-4-9___8.09+(-2.02)+5.46=11.53____34.3____65.5
2-4-9-9___7.59+(-2.13)+5.93=11.39____31.9____64.6

Defense_______L5 %____L6 %
2-3-4-5_______9.8_____12.5
2-3-4-9_______9.5_____12.9
2-4-9-9_______7.2_____12.1

2-3-4-5 is best for expected averages by 0.08pt and is also slightly best for Win %s although 2-4-9-9 is lowest for Loss %s. Even so I'll select 9-9 to discard.

After the 8 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.

   

Wednesday 3:51 PM

Ras,i would keep 2345 in many positions on the board,but I don’t believe this is one of them-you’re in pretty good position here dealing-the pone needs a monster hand or a good one with some extra pegging to get where he wants to be-why possibly help him with a vulnerable pegging hand? If Pone leads a 3 what do you play? If you play the 4 or 5 you invite a pegging war that pone will be very content to hop into-if you risk the match and pone trips it, you’ve given up 6 points and are still in horrendous shape with your next play-so while the numbers may suggest your hold is a bit better in the long run,it does not take into account this bad or worst case scenario which could completely flip the game around,