August 12, 2019

*** This hand was suggested by james500
71*-87  ?
57%
20%
18%
2%
1%
0%
0%
Total votes: 194
Jazzselke
2569 votes

Joined: March 2009

 
 
 
Monday 3:08 AM
Which open-ended double-run possibilty to keep? 78 has higher average to crib than 33 or 34, and 3348 has higher peg value than 3788 or 4788. Congrats to Jmath and Glmccuskey; each won a main tournament in their current home state of Texas this weekend
Ras2829 says: Hi jazzselke: Pleased to hear of the success ofJmath and glmccuskey. Congratulations to both and really appreciate the positive manner in which they relate to others, whether winning or losing.
Guest says: I must reply - the 3-3--4 is not only the riht throw - it is the only throw. Reasons - you are behind you have a potential of a 14 hand. - you have a pissible 5 trap if you care to try for it. - You have better pegging cards. - your crib is "alive with a 7-8. I do not understand why there is any discussion, or choice. A lousy cribbage player.
JQT says: That's a very logical analysis (in my opinion) of today's puzzle by the Guest immediately above. Also, those are some very wise words indeed spoken by RAS, too. I think it's no surprise that, in spite of our varying thoughts and ideas and analyses that get posted on this site, that it's no accident that several of our "regulars" here have taken home winning trophies. There is a wonderful 'pool' of Cribbage Knowledge present at "Hand of the Day," and that's as good a reason as any to keep coming back, for expert and novice alike.
Jazzselke says: Also congrats to CWED!
dec
6327 votes

Joined: April 2008

 
 
 
Monday 3:42 AM
Congrats to both. Lots of good cuts here 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9, even an ace cut has possibilities. I think an eight cut might get us a boatful of points. Naw now we might have to finagle some pegs here. dec
Guest says: When it comes to have either different outtakes or even different keeps you can always learn something new or reinforce some well thought line of resaoning here. dec
james500
3895 votes

Joined: June 2013

 
 
 
Monday 4:02 AM
Not too optimistic about discarding 3-8 since my hand deprives the crib of so many useful cards, but I'll try the flush regardless although it may be a better option if I was Pone.
Rosemarie44
2051 votes

Joined: March 2016

 
 
 
Monday 4:19 AM
I, too, decided on the Flush with 34 cuts that improve the value of this hand.
james500 says: Hi Rosemarie, hope all's well. I tried submitting some hands directly from Ecribbage last night, but I'm not sure that the link through to this site is still operational. Rather than see a confirmation message, all I got was a host of, what I assume to be, computer code. Have the updates that you recently hinted at had some effect on the connection between the two sites? As a moderator, are you able to see upcoming hands listed by submission date to confirm/deny whether I successfully submitted two hands yesterday? Has anybody else mentioned to you having had difficulty sharing hands from Ecribbage? Thanks in advance.
Ras2829 says: Hi james500: It does appear that submissions from ECribbage are not now processed. Some time ago there was nearly one year wait for a puzzle to appear once submitted. Now there is nothing beyond the ealy days of October and I see no recent puzzles from the ECribbage site. Don't see anything posted by you yesterday.
Rosemarie44 says: Hi James: If there are any updates between CHOD and Cribbage you would need to inquire by sending an email to the Webmaster (see below on this page). Also any difficulty with submitting hands would be best sent to the Webmaster. I will check and look for two submissions from you and get back to you. No one has mentioned about sharing hands from Ecribage.
Rosemarie44 says: Hi James: I don't see submission dates but here are two submissions to be shown on 8/29 and 8/30 positions 71*-87 and 45*-57 and the next two submissions are for 9/3 and 9/4; 83-94* and 86-93*. Are any of these the submissions you are referring to?
Rosemarie44 says: Hi James: Any reason why you are not submitting a hand through this site? Option is listed below on this page.
JQT says: Yes, as Rosemarie indicates, you can always submit a puzzle manually: so just pull up a copy of any interesting game you played, and look up the hand you wish to post. This is yet another great reason why I think SAVING OUR GAMES is so important! The puzzle buffer is full up to early October as RAS indicates, but occasionally, there are some "open" dates that occur in our calendar; and so oftentimes, if you post a puzzle, it will "grab" an earlier date instead of merely getting appended to the end of the calendar.
james500 says: Thanks to you all for the feedback. To Rosemarie in particular, in answer to your question I do often submit hands through this site, today's puzzle being one such submission. Should I find myself in an interesting position during a game on Ecribbage though, it is much easier to simply click the "share scenario" link, than it would be to write the hand down, wait to finish the match/tournament, login to this site and then go through the process of entering the specific situational details manually. It is a very useful feature of the Ecribbage site, and it is a shame if, as Ras suggests, that function is no longer available.
Gougie00
5702 votes

Joined: March 2008

 
 
 
Monday 4:52 AM
I'll do it this way. I wish the starter was better.
mrob2199
1407 votes

Joined: February 2009

 
 
 
Monday 5:01 AM
Jazz Selke explained it nicely-and I believe the better defensive pegging potential of this hand tilts it to my keep-congrats to Jason Gary and David Aiken on their wins this weekend-I think this site is helping us all!
mfetchCT425
1382 votes

Joined: February 2009

 
 
 
Monday 5:52 AM
Agree with those above holding it this way. It not only gives us the chance for max of a 14 hand (with the 5 cut) but also is the better defensive pegging hand in my opinion vs. holding the 3 middle cards. Congrats to Jason Gary and David on their wins! Nicely done.
JCM
910 votes

Joined: April 2019

 
 
 
Monday 6:15 AM
3C-3-4C-7C-8C-8
71*-87 We trail by 16. We want to make some of that up. The choice seems to be either the flush(3C-4C-7C -8C) which has, I think, 26 cuts to help it(2,3,4,5,6,7,8 and 9); or 3-3-4-8(7C-8C), which also has 26 cuts to help it(A,2,3,4,5,7,8 and 9). The big advantage of the latter is 7-8 going to our crib, which averages ~6.5 points there.
Discarding 3D-8D(keeping the flush) has lower max and lower average scores, mainly due to that discard being worth only ~ 4 pts in our crib(about 2.5 pts less than the 7-8).
So 3-3-4-8(7C-8C) it is, hoping for a middle card cut.
After the K cut(ugh!) we find ourselves sitting on 6 points in hand and an average 6 or 7 pts in crib, totaling 12 or 13 points.
We'd like to make a few pegging points to see if we can move 16 pts in all. I would lead 3C(Fake Flush) and take any pegging points offered.
glmccuskey
4075 votes

Joined: April 2011

 
 
 
Monday 6:25 AM
With non dealer at 87 will be forced to peg carefully. Would like to get a few pegs though with that king cut likely adding nothing. Just don’t want a pegging war.
Guest says: Congrats to you and Jason!wtg S :)
JQT
4136 votes

Joined: October 2008

 
 
 
Monday 7:06 AM
Here we begin with a combined 'static' Eight Points overall, and not only with open-ended chances for a Double RUN in our Hand, but also with an extremely powerful and suited (7 8) in our Crib.

Nothing else can top this!
horus93
1272 votes

Joined: December 2017

 
 
 
Monday 8:11 AM
Despite pone threatening to hit 96 I think we have to risk playing offense to that cut to stay in the game.
horus93 says: And this is a good hand for it with a magic 11 and a 5-trap
jmath714
1290 votes

Joined: January 2012

 
 
 
Monday 9:02 AM
Congrats to Gary on this weekend, and of course to Dave as well.
JRCeagle78
1054 votes

Joined: June 2016

 
 
 
Monday 9:13 AM
I don't know which double run possibility has the better pegging potential, but this appears the way to go. Usually I like to play the low cards in a hand like this, but as every body knows, the only guarantee in cribbage is that someone will win and someone will not.
joekayak
1873 votes

Joined: May 2016

 
 
 
Monday 12:24 PM
I think we have run across a puzzle where "It does NOT pay to flush." Keeping the 3-3-4, 8-7 to my own crib. A light at the end of the tunnel. Then the King cut blocks some of the light. Any body hear a train coming?
Coeurdelion
5573 votes

Joined: October 2007

 
 
 
Monday 4:35 PM
The top three are likely to be, I think, 3-3-4-8D (7-8C), 3C-4-7-8C (3D-8D) and 4-7-8-8 (3-3):

3-3-4-8D: 6pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.53) = 12½pts

3-C-4-7-8C: 8pts + 4pts (Schell: 3.92) = 12pts

4-7-8-8: 6pts + 5¾pts (Schell: 5.94) = 11¾pts

Potential:

3-3-4-8D: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 33, 444, 5555, 777, 88, 9999 = 26 cuts = 26/46 = 56.5% up to 12/14pts with 2222, 33, 444, 5555, 88 = 15 cuts.

3C-4-7-8C: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 33, 444, 5555, 6666, 777, 88, 9999 = 30 cuts = 30/46 = 65.2% up to 11/12/13/14pts with 2222, 33, 444, 5555, 6666, 777, 88, 9999 = 26 cuts. Plus 9 clubs for 1pt extra = 9/46 = 0.20pt.

4-7-8-8: Improves with 33, 444, 6666, 777, 88, 9999 = 18 cuts = 18/46 = 39.1% up to 10/12pts with all cuts.

Position:

We're 1pt past positional hole and Pone is 1pt ahead of where they need to be I'll play Defgense to try to hold Pone back.

Pegging:

Normally the flush will peg best and be hardest to read.

Summary:

3-3-4-8 starts with ½pt more and although it doesn't have as many cuts for improvement or for approx. 11-14pts. With the flush the 3-8 discard has considerable negative delta as we hold another 3, 8 and a 7. So despite the better pegging and the extra 0.20pt for a club cut I'll throw the suited 7-8.
HalscribCLX
5296 votes

Joined: February 2008

 
 
 
Monday 4:38 PM
At 71*-87 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

__________________Pone's
Defense____Hand___Pegs___Crib_Total____W3 %____W4 %
3-3-4-8D____8.61+(-2.22)+6.38=12.77____19.2____22.5
3C-4-7-8C__10.67+(-2.02)+3.50=12.15____14.9____20.9
4-7-8-8_____8.13+(-2.09)+5.74=11.78____14.7____20.3

Defense________L3 %____L4 %
3-3-4-8D_______58.7____70.0
3C-4-7-8C______59.0____72.8
4-7-8-8________57.2____73.1

3-3-4-8D is best for expected averages by 0.62pt and is appreciably best for Win %s and slightly best for Loss %s. So I'll select 7-8C to discard.

After the K cut I'll play Defense to the lead.
Guest says: you play defense regardless.
Ras2829
5125 votes

Joined: November 2008

 
 
 
Monday 5:38 PM
With opponent at 87 needing to deal from 4th street CPZ (95-99, most important thing can do here is to slow n/d of this hand down. A X-pointer of many kind is exactly what I didn't want. That King seems to add nothing to my hand or crib, and increases chances for n/d to have large hand since I had no 5-X combinations among my six cards. That being a likely scenario, will play my 8 spot on any lead from Jack upwards. Will play the trey on a 10 lead. Would pair a trey lead; otherwise would play off.