August 12, 2019

*** This hand was suggested by james500
71*-87  ?
57%
20%
18%
2%
1%
0%
0%
Total votes: 194

Play this scenario out against a robot designed by Hal Mueller for eCribbage.com

Jazzselke
1349 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Monday 3:08 AM
Which open-ended double-run possibilty to keep? 78 has higher average to crib than 33 or 34, and 3348 has higher peg value than 3788 or 4788. Congrats to Jmath and Glmccuskey; each won a main tournament in their current home state of Texas this weekend
dec
4705 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Monday 3:42 AM
Congrats to both. Lots of good cuts here 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9, even an ace cut has possibilities. I think an eight cut might get us a boatful of points. Naw now we might have to finagle some pegs here. dec
james500
2332 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Monday 4:02 AM
Not too optimistic about discarding 3-8 since my hand deprives the crib of so many useful cards, but I'll try the flush regardless although it may be a better option if I was Pone.
Rosemarie44
1425 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Monday 4:19 AM
I, too, decided on the Flush with 34 cuts that improve the value of this hand.
Gougie00
4101 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Monday 4:52 AM
I'll do it this way. I wish the starter was better.
mrob2199
190 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Monday 5:01 AM
Jazz Selke explained it nicely-and I believe the better defensive pegging potential of this hand tilts it to my keep-congrats to Jason Gary and David Aiken on their wins this weekend-I think this site is helping us all!
mfetchCT425
438 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Monday 5:52 AM
Agree with those above holding it this way. It not only gives us the chance for max of a 14 hand (with the 5 cut) but also is the better defensive pegging hand in my opinion vs. holding the 3 middle cards. Congrats to Jason Gary and David on their wins! Nicely done.
JCM
322 votes

Joined: April 2019

   
Monday 6:15 AM
3C-3-4C-7C-8C-8
71*-87 We trail by 16. We want to make some of that up. The choice seems to be either the flush(3C-4C-7C -8C) which has, I think, 26 cuts to help it(2,3,4,5,6,7,8 and 9); or 3-3-4-8(7C-8C), which also has 26 cuts to help it(A,2,3,4,5,7,8 and 9). The big advantage of the latter is 7-8 going to our crib, which averages ~6.5 points there.
Discarding 3D-8D(keeping the flush) has lower max and lower average scores, mainly due to that discard being worth only ~ 4 pts in our crib(about 2.5 pts less than the 7-8).
So 3-3-4-8(7C-8C) it is, hoping for a middle card cut.
After the K cut(ugh!) we find ourselves sitting on 6 points in hand and an average 6 or 7 pts in crib, totaling 12 or 13 points.
We'd like to make a few pegging points to see if we can move 16 pts in all. I would lead 3C(Fake Flush) and take any pegging points offered.
glmccuskey
3119 votes

Joined: April 2011

   
Monday 6:25 AM
With non dealer at 87 will be forced to peg carefully. Would like to get a few pegs though with that king cut likely adding nothing. Just don’t want a pegging war.
JQT
2660 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Monday 7:06 AM
Here we begin with a combined 'static' Eight Points overall, and not only with open-ended chances for a Double RUN in our Hand, but also with an extremely powerful and suited (7 8) in our Crib.

Nothing else can top this!
horus93
590 votes

Joined: December 2017

   
Monday 8:11 AM
Despite pone threatening to hit 96 I think we have to risk playing offense to that cut to stay in the game.
jmath714
657 votes

Joined: January 2012

   
Monday 9:02 AM
Congrats to Gary on this weekend, and of course to Dave as well.
JRCeagle78
770 votes

Joined: June 2016

   
Monday 9:13 AM
I don't know which double run possibility has the better pegging potential, but this appears the way to go. Usually I like to play the low cards in a hand like this, but as every body knows, the only guarantee in cribbage is that someone will win and someone will not.
joekayak
935 votes

Joined: May 2016

   
Monday 12:24 PM
I think we have run across a puzzle where "It does NOT pay to flush." Keeping the 3-3-4, 8-7 to my own crib. A light at the end of the tunnel. Then the King cut blocks some of the light. Any body hear a train coming?
Coeurdelion
4023 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Monday 4:35 PM
The top three are likely to be, I think, 3-3-4-8D (7-8C), 3C-4-7-8C (3D-8D) and 4-7-8-8 (3-3):

3-3-4-8D: 6pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.53) = 12½pts

3-C-4-7-8C: 8pts + 4pts (Schell: 3.92) = 12pts

4-7-8-8: 6pts + 5¾pts (Schell: 5.94) = 11¾pts

Potential:

3-3-4-8D: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 33, 444, 5555, 777, 88, 9999 = 26 cuts = 26/46 = 56.5% up to 12/14pts with 2222, 33, 444, 5555, 88 = 15 cuts.

3C-4-7-8C: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 33, 444, 5555, 6666, 777, 88, 9999 = 30 cuts = 30/46 = 65.2% up to 11/12/13/14pts with 2222, 33, 444, 5555, 6666, 777, 88, 9999 = 26 cuts. Plus 9 clubs for 1pt extra = 9/46 = 0.20pt.

4-7-8-8: Improves with 33, 444, 6666, 777, 88, 9999 = 18 cuts = 18/46 = 39.1% up to 10/12pts with all cuts.

Position:

We're 1pt past positional hole and Pone is 1pt ahead of where they need to be I'll play Defgense to try to hold Pone back.

Pegging:

Normally the flush will peg best and be hardest to read.

Summary:

3-3-4-8 starts with ½pt more and although it doesn't have as many cuts for improvement or for approx. 11-14pts. With the flush the 3-8 discard has considerable negative delta as we hold another 3, 8 and a 7. So despite the better pegging and the extra 0.20pt for a club cut I'll throw the suited 7-8.
HalscribCLX
3798 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Monday 4:38 PM
At 71*-87 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

__________________Pone's
Defense____Hand___Pegs___Crib_Total____W3 %____W4 %
3-3-4-8D____8.61+(-2.22)+6.38=12.77____19.2____22.5
3C-4-7-8C__10.67+(-2.02)+3.50=12.15____14.9____20.9
4-7-8-8_____8.13+(-2.09)+5.74=11.78____14.7____20.3

Defense________L3 %____L4 %
3-3-4-8D_______58.7____70.0
3C-4-7-8C______59.0____72.8
4-7-8-8________57.2____73.1

3-3-4-8D is best for expected averages by 0.62pt and is appreciably best for Win %s and slightly best for Loss %s. So I'll select 7-8C to discard.

After the K cut I'll play Defense to the lead.
Ras2829
3561 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Monday 5:38 PM
With opponent at 87 needing to deal from 4th street CPZ (95-99, most important thing can do here is to slow n/d of this hand down. A X-pointer of many kind is exactly what I didn't want. That King seems to add nothing to my hand or crib, and increases chances for n/d to have large hand since I had no 5-X combinations among my six cards. That being a likely scenario, will play my 8 spot on any lead from Jack upwards. Will play the trey on a 10 lead. Would pair a trey lead; otherwise would play off.