August 12, 2019

*** This hand was suggested by james500
71*-87  ?
Total votes: 194

Play this scenario out against a robot designed by Hal Mueller for

1349 votes

Joined: March 2009

Monday 3:08 AM
Which open-ended double-run possibilty to keep? 78 has higher average to crib than 33 or 34, and 3348 has higher peg value than 3788 or 4788. Congrats to Jmath and Glmccuskey; each won a main tournament in their current home state of Texas this weekend
4705 votes

Joined: April 2008

Monday 3:42 AM
Congrats to both. Lots of good cuts here 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9, even an ace cut has possibilities. I think an eight cut might get us a boatful of points. Naw now we might have to finagle some pegs here. dec
2332 votes

Joined: June 2013

Monday 4:02 AM
Not too optimistic about discarding 3-8 since my hand deprives the crib of so many useful cards, but I'll try the flush regardless although it may be a better option if I was Pone.
1425 votes

Joined: March 2016

Monday 4:19 AM
I, too, decided on the Flush with 34 cuts that improve the value of this hand.
4101 votes

Joined: March 2008

Monday 4:52 AM
I'll do it this way. I wish the starter was better.
190 votes

Joined: February 2009

Monday 5:01 AM
Jazz Selke explained it nicely-and I believe the better defensive pegging potential of this hand tilts it to my keep-congrats to Jason Gary and David Aiken on their wins this weekend-I think this site is helping us all!
438 votes

Joined: February 2009

Monday 5:52 AM
Agree with those above holding it this way. It not only gives us the chance for max of a 14 hand (with the 5 cut) but also is the better defensive pegging hand in my opinion vs. holding the 3 middle cards. Congrats to Jason Gary and David on their wins! Nicely done.
322 votes

Joined: April 2019

Monday 6:15 AM
71*-87 We trail by 16. We want to make some of that up. The choice seems to be either the flush(3C-4C-7C -8C) which has, I think, 26 cuts to help it(2,3,4,5,6,7,8 and 9); or 3-3-4-8(7C-8C), which also has 26 cuts to help it(A,2,3,4,5,7,8 and 9). The big advantage of the latter is 7-8 going to our crib, which averages ~6.5 points there.
Discarding 3D-8D(keeping the flush) has lower max and lower average scores, mainly due to that discard being worth only ~ 4 pts in our crib(about 2.5 pts less than the 7-8).
So 3-3-4-8(7C-8C) it is, hoping for a middle card cut.
After the K cut(ugh!) we find ourselves sitting on 6 points in hand and an average 6 or 7 pts in crib, totaling 12 or 13 points.
We'd like to make a few pegging points to see if we can move 16 pts in all. I would lead 3C(Fake Flush) and take any pegging points offered.
3119 votes

Joined: April 2011

Monday 6:25 AM
With non dealer at 87 will be forced to peg carefully. Would like to get a few pegs though with that king cut likely adding nothing. Just don’t want a pegging war.
2660 votes

Joined: October 2008

Monday 7:06 AM
Here we begin with a combined 'static' Eight Points overall, and not only with open-ended chances for a Double RUN in our Hand, but also with an extremely powerful and suited (7 8) in our Crib.

Nothing else can top this!
590 votes

Joined: December 2017

Monday 8:11 AM
Despite pone threatening to hit 96 I think we have to risk playing offense to that cut to stay in the game.
657 votes

Joined: January 2012

Monday 9:02 AM
Congrats to Gary on this weekend, and of course to Dave as well.
770 votes

Joined: June 2016

Monday 9:13 AM
I don't know which double run possibility has the better pegging potential, but this appears the way to go. Usually I like to play the low cards in a hand like this, but as every body knows, the only guarantee in cribbage is that someone will win and someone will not.
935 votes

Joined: May 2016

Monday 12:24 PM
I think we have run across a puzzle where "It does NOT pay to flush." Keeping the 3-3-4, 8-7 to my own crib. A light at the end of the tunnel. Then the King cut blocks some of the light. Any body hear a train coming?
4023 votes

Joined: October 2007

Monday 4:35 PM
The top three are likely to be, I think, 3-3-4-8D (7-8C), 3C-4-7-8C (3D-8D) and 4-7-8-8 (3-3):

3-3-4-8D: 6pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.53) = 12½pts

3-C-4-7-8C: 8pts + 4pts (Schell: 3.92) = 12pts

4-7-8-8: 6pts + 5¾pts (Schell: 5.94) = 11¾pts


3-3-4-8D: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 33, 444, 5555, 777, 88, 9999 = 26 cuts = 26/46 = 56.5% up to 12/14pts with 2222, 33, 444, 5555, 88 = 15 cuts.

3C-4-7-8C: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 33, 444, 5555, 6666, 777, 88, 9999 = 30 cuts = 30/46 = 65.2% up to 11/12/13/14pts with 2222, 33, 444, 5555, 6666, 777, 88, 9999 = 26 cuts. Plus 9 clubs for 1pt extra = 9/46 = 0.20pt.

4-7-8-8: Improves with 33, 444, 6666, 777, 88, 9999 = 18 cuts = 18/46 = 39.1% up to 10/12pts with all cuts.


We're 1pt past positional hole and Pone is 1pt ahead of where they need to be I'll play Defgense to try to hold Pone back.


Normally the flush will peg best and be hardest to read.


3-3-4-8 starts with ½pt more and although it doesn't have as many cuts for improvement or for approx. 11-14pts. With the flush the 3-8 discard has considerable negative delta as we hold another 3, 8 and a 7. So despite the better pegging and the extra 0.20pt for a club cut I'll throw the suited 7-8.
3798 votes

Joined: February 2008

Monday 4:38 PM
At 71*-87 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

Defense____Hand___Pegs___Crib_Total____W3 %____W4 %

Defense________L3 %____L4 %

3-3-4-8D is best for expected averages by 0.62pt and is appreciably best for Win %s and slightly best for Loss %s. So I'll select 7-8C to discard.

After the K cut I'll play Defense to the lead.
3561 votes

Joined: November 2008

Monday 5:38 PM
With opponent at 87 needing to deal from 4th street CPZ (95-99, most important thing can do here is to slow n/d of this hand down. A X-pointer of many kind is exactly what I didn't want. That King seems to add nothing to my hand or crib, and increases chances for n/d to have large hand since I had no 5-X combinations among my six cards. That being a likely scenario, will play my 8 spot on any lead from Jack upwards. Will play the trey on a 10 lead. Would pair a trey lead; otherwise would play off.