August 11, 2019

*** This hand was suggested by jmath714
96-95*  ?
34%
24%
18%
16%
3%
1%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 174

Play this scenario out against a robot designed by Hal Mueller for eCribbage.com

JQT
2552 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Sunday 3:00 AM
Our opponent is Dealing from the "edge" of the Fourth Street 'par' Hole, so we would like to S-L-O-W D-O-W-N our Opponent! We cannot achieve this if we Toss (5 5) or (7 8)!

Thus, it's a simple "process of elimination" until we get to Keep (5 6 7 7) and Toss (5 8) today, and it costs us nothing to retain the Spade Suited 5 Card that matches the suit of our 6 Card.

But suits probably won't matter, as we'll be looking to reduce the Dealer's Pegging as much as possible, so after the Jack Cut, let's lead a 7 Card from our PEAR.

Leading the 7 Card allows us to still hold the most variable remaining three cards in order to attempt to "Play OFF" and peg as defensively as possible, although we might get 'jammed up' anyway; yet that's a risk inherent with such an arrangement as this.
Rosemarie44
1317 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Sunday 3:08 AM
Good to see my hand showing up on the screen this morning! Agree with JQT not tossing 7-8 or 5-5 to opponent. Tossing safer 5-8. As others would say "we have two sevens, a six iand a five n our hand" to offset our toss to opponent.
james500
2229 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Sunday 3:19 AM
6-8 with two sevens known to be out of circulation may be as safe as we can muster today, but 5-8 might not be too dangerous here either(?), and it allows us to retain many more points in hand.
7D lead.
Jazzselke
1276 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Sunday 3:24 AM
No defensive discard available, 58 seems to be the best. The second problem is not a good hand to lead from, but JQT describes what sounds like the best approach. Of course if we knew a middle-card cut was in the offing we wouldn't have to worry about the first 2 problems. But 55 is a heavy price to pay if that doesn't happen
joekayak
841 votes

Joined: May 2016

   
Sunday 3:59 AM
I'm really in the minority here. I went for the "safe" 6-8 to opponent. My 2 pair will get me to 100 and I'll take my chances of getting out from there with the deck in my hand. Must slow down opponent. Knowing where 2 of the 8's and one of the 6's are, relatively safe lead of the 7. Cut is kind. Now at 104. DEF DEF DEF
dec
4575 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Sunday 4:25 AM
No I will join you. The Jack cut actually does not help my opinion in two words, Defense and desperation. yes 95 is the end all in positioning but 97 does boost it enough. I wanted to see something like 104 to something in the low to mid 100s for them. If they get a minimal hand I wanted that crib to be minimal also. Lead is not great a seven but at least half the sevens/eights accounted for. I like to think this is playing to win here. dec
Gougie00
3995 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Sunday 6:43 AM
Excellent puzzle. Early in the game or 10 pegs closer, I'd toss the 55. Here, I hedge with the 5-8, and hope the crib doesnt cripple me. Lead a 7 and try not to peg, and good luck doing that.
horus93
501 votes

Joined: December 2017

   
Sunday 8:49 AM
This is a purely positional puzzle. Dealer is one short of par. No way am I risking 5-8 to keep a hand that maxes out at 16!

What's the point of dealing from 113-115 next hand if our opponent has first count from 110+? And 113-115 is the very best case scenario.

6-8 is a pretty bad discard normally but here we have such significant negative delta that it's practically a balk.
Ras2829
3463 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Sunday 10:02 AM
We've got a problem here to begin with as n/d. There is no low-scoring discard among these six cards. There is however a vast difference in the values of 5-8 and 5-5 discards in favor of the former. You can see that huge difference between 5-8 and 5-5 in their profiles. The 5-8 average is 6.393 (178) 14/91 scores two points 6.39%, tallies 3-7 points 64.412%, reaches 8-11 points 27.399%, and climbs to 12 and more 1.799%. The 5-5 average is 9.086 (58) 1/91 scores two points 2.16%, tallies 3-7 points 8.76%, reaches 8-11 points 66.2%, and climbs to 12 and more 22.88%. So 5-8 to opponent will score two points at three times the rate of 5-5 and will score 8 or more at a rate of about 1 to 3.3. In addition 5-8 scores 2-7 points 70.802% while 5-5 does that at a rate of 10.92%. Those are huge differences in discard values. You can tell that RAS tosses either very seldom as the number in parentheses indicates the number of times I've discarded to opponent in live play and recorded the results. I did not seriously consider the 6-8 since it averages only .53 less than does the 5-8 and reduces my potential hand score too much. horus93 does a good job of defining his choice of the 6-8 above as retaining 7-7 significantly reduces the average of 6-8. None of my comments are meant to discredit other contributors at anytime. The more who pitch in here with divergent views, the better the site becomes. And CHOD has come a long way in a relatively short time.
JCM
155 votes

Joined: April 2019

   
Sunday 11:27 AM
96-95* Dealer needs 26 pts to win, and we, as pone need 25 pts. The problem is dealer gets 1st count next hand. So he has hand, crib, pegging(all this hand) + hand, pegging(next hand to do make 26 pts. It's what he does on average.(26-pt cycle)

OTOH, we have hand and pegging(this hand), plus pegging(next hand) - to beat dealer to the finish line. We can't count our own hand(next hand) since Opp counts first then. We only get to count it if he fails to 1st reach 21.

So our objective is to slow Opp. down this hand(and hope he doesn't make it to 21 next hand). Or at least, not help him get there.
Problem is there is no really good crib balk here. Best would be 5-8, retaining a double run(5-5-6-7)

So 5-5-6-7(5-8) it is. Hold breath and cross fingers.

After the J cut(which gives Opp. 2 of his needed 26 pts), we sit with 12 points in hand, of our needed 25. We need 13 more. Next hand we can only count on the pegging, perhaps 3 pts, maybe a bit more if we're lucky. So we have to hope Opp. doesn't make it next hand and keep slowing him down this hand.

I would lead a 7, but not triple if he pairs. 6 pts would be nice, but 12 pts for Opp. would be disaster.

If we're lucky, Opp. fails to make 121 pts and we get to count next hand, and probably win.
cwed
875 votes

Joined: October 2014

   
Sunday 1:00 PM
When it is impossible to make a safe discard, I have a tendency to hold the highest scoring hand. So I pulled the trigger here--and shot myself in the foot! With this revolting turn of events, I will try to peg as much as I can so that I lose by less.
Coeurdelion
3917 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Sunday 2:17 PM
I think its between 6-7-7-8 (5-5), 5-6-7-7 (5-8) or perhaps 5-5-6-7 (7-8):

6-7-7-8: 12pts - 9½pts (Schell: 9.37) = +2½pts

5-6-7-7: 8pts - 6½pts (Schell: 6.30) = +1½pts

5-5-6-7: 8pts - 7½pts (Schell: 7.63) = +½pt

Potential:

6-7-7-8: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 55, 666, 77, 888, 9999 = 22 cuts = 22/46 = 47.8% up to 14/16/20/21/24pts with all cuts.

5-6-7-7: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 3333, 4444, 55, 666, 77, 888, 9999 + 16xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 12/14/15/16pts with 2222, 3333, 4444, 55, 666, 77, 888 = 22 cuts.

5-5-6-7: Improves with 3333, 4444, 55, 666, 77, 888, 9999 + 16xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 12/14/16/17pts with 3333, 4444, 55, 666, 77, 888, + 16xXs = 34 cuts.

Position:

We're already at positional hole so I'll play Defense.

Pegging:

All these hands are not ideal for playing Defense. But with magic elevens 5-6-7-7 and 5-5-6-7 perhaps better than 6-7-7-8.

Summary:

5-6-7-7 starts with 1pt less than 6-7-7-8 and 1pt more than 5-5-6-7. It also has guaranteed improvement and 22 cuts for 12-16pts. It also should peg reasonably. So I'll throw a 5-8.
HalscribCLX
3697 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Sunday 2:40 PM
At 96-95* playing a Safe strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_________________Dlr's
Defense___Hand___Pegs____Crib___Total___W1 %___W2 %
5-6-7-7___11.65+(-3.02)+(-5.85)=2.78____0.0____36.7
6-7-7-8___14.83+(-2.63)+(-9.61)=2.59____0.2____28.1
5-5-6-7___12.13+(-3.87)+(-6.49)=1.77____0.7____32.4

Defense______L1 %___L2 %
5-6-7-7______3.8____51.6
6-7-7-8_____14.5____62.3
5-5-6-7______8.3____55.2

5-6-7-7 is best for expected averages by 0.19pt and is significantly best for Win %s and Loss %s which both take account of the critical board position. So I'll select 5-8 to discard

After the J cut I'll lead a 7 and play Defense:

Lead___________Dealer's Pegging Pts.
7_____________________(-2.68)
6_____________________(-2.93)
5_____________________(-3.58)
Andy (muesli64)
1562 votes

Joined: August 2009

   
Sunday 2:54 PM
Well known hand. If not known to you - apply logic!!