Wednesday 3:00 AM

Dealing just beyond Hole 70 is a desirable position, even with our opponent leading by half a street!

We probably won't be able to get back 'on track' toward an equal position all during one deal, but we still have nearly two streets ahead of us in order to perform that task, so let's begin to "chip away" at our Opponent's lead.

As discussed a few days back, it is generally easier to s-l-o-w down our opponent as opposed to speeding ourselves up, but while we are the Dealer, it is usually the time to play OFFENSE, and so maybe later while we are Pone, we can resume our focus on DEFENSE.

As the Dealer here, we could Toss (5 T) and retain the FLUSH, which looks like a balanced approach; or we could Toss (8 9) and retain the Delightful Dozen; or, we might simply Toss (5 5), and use the One-Two-Punch of a Double RUN as well as Toss (5 5), which has a prospective Crib Value of approximately Nine Points!

I prefer this last idea, so Toss (5 5) it is, and away we go!

   

Wednesday 3:08 AM

Hold the double run and toss the fives!

   

Wednesday 4:01 AM

In a perfect world cut another ten and opponent discards two face cards and then play on. Might get close enough to go out next hand. Well maybe half of that happens now. We might have to play defense here. dec

   

Wednesday 4:02 AM

Great hand as dealer here-it’s too bad pone is in such a good position-we have to try to keep him down as much as possible-it’s likely we will be in decent position just onto 4th street ourselves-the double run creates a tad more pegging flexibility than the double ten double 5-if pone leads a 7 play off with the 10-we can’t afford to give up any 3 card runs if possible

   

Wednesday 4:34 AM

That what I chose also for the same reason.

   

Wednesday 4:47 AM

"Only" eleven known points, but plenty of helpful cuts for both hand and crib.

Speculation admittedly, but with two fives out of circulation, Pone may have little use for any X cards dealt. They're quite welcome in my crib of 10-5-?-?-?.

   

Wednesday 5:49 AM

I'll try the flush and toss myself suited 5-10. Problem will be that the opponent will probably get to hole 95 regardless of how clever I am defensively. Play defense if possible.

   

Wednesday 6:07 AM

Well it doesn't appear that our opponent will have K10 to throw, but hopefully still 2 face cards.

   

Wednesday 6:48 AM

I threw the 89 which has an expected average of 18.1 compared to the 55 which has an expected average of 18.8. 5,10 of diamonds to keep the flush also averaged 18.1. All the others tosses are massively worse.

   

Wednesday 6:49 AM

Was tempted to throw the two fives. But convinced myself that a 10-5 in the crib, while worth 2 points less than 5-5 in the crib, leaves us with a hand worth 1 point more. And that the slightly better pegging prospects as well, make throwing 10-5 a good toss.
I'm starting to second-guess myself - maybe the 5-5 toss is the better throw?
Let's see what Halscrib/Coeurdelion say later on.

   

Wednesday 7:01 AM

This hand is not the best pegging hand, but it is possible. We may not need that much. Toss 5-5 and hope for at least one X card.

   

Wednesday 7:26 AM

Like the double 5s to our crib here. Still potential for a big hand and we have the best toss to own crib for possible big crib as well.

   

Wednesday 8:24 AM

I think this will be better on defense, I also seem to have bad luck tossing myself 5-5.

   

Wednesday 9:39 AM

Today I "nickel-ized" my crib.

   

Wednesday 9:59 AM

I agree that it is always fantastic when you can get 5-5 into the crib. This falls into RAS's big hand rule.

However, that score scares me. I don't want to get stuck in a pegging battle. If Pone leads an 8, 9, or 10 there might be big trouble. So I'm taking the sure 12 points with a pretty good discard. This should let me minimize their pegs.

   

Wednesday 3:35 PM

5-5-10-10 (8-9), 8-9-10-10 (5-5) or 5C-8-9-10C (5-10)?:

5-5-10-10: 12pts + 4¾pts (Schell: 4.72) = 16¾pts

8-9-10-10: 8pts + 8¾pts (Schell: 8.79) = 16¾pts

5C-8-9-10C: 9pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.66) = 15½pts

Potential:

5-5-10-10: Improves with 55 + 14xXs = 16 cuts = 16/46 = 34.8% up to 16/20/22pts with all cuts.

8-9-10-10: Improves with 55, 6666, 7777, 888, 999, 1010, JJJJ = 22 cuts = 22/46 = 47.8% up to 12/15/16pts with 55, 888, 999, 1010 = 10 cuts.

5C-8-9-10C: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 55, 6666, 7777, 888, 999 + 14xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 12/13/14/16pts with 55, 7777, 888, 999, 1010, JJJJ = 18 cuts. Plus 9 clubs for 1pt extra for the flush = 9/46 = 0.20pt.

Position:

We're 2pts ahead of positional hole and Pone is 1pt ahead of where they need to be. So I'll play Optimally.

Pegging:

I think the flush will peg best.

Summary:

5-5-10-10 and 8-9-10-10 have a starting value 1¼pts more than the flush but the flush has many more cuts for improvement and 18 for 12-16pts plus 1pt extra for a club cut. It has a lower maximum as well so will it catch up the 1¼pts? It should peg best too but even so I think it will be close but I just favor the flush so I'll throw the suited 5D-10D.

   

Wednesday 3:49 PM

At 72*-87 playing a Defense strategy the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

___________________Pone's
Defense_____Hand___Pegs___Crib_Total____W3 %____W4 %
8-9-10-10___10.22+(-2.20)+8.49=16.51____36.7____34.2
5-5-10-10___13.83+(-2.17)+4.37=16.03____33.1____32.1
5C-8-9-10C__11.72+(-2.04)+6.29=15.97____32.7____30.6

Defense_________L3 %____L4 %
8-9-10-10_______55.9____53.6
5-5-10-10_______56.7____56.8
5C-8-9-10C______59.6____58.8

8-9-10-10 is best for expected averages by 0.48pt and is appreciably best for Win %s and Loss %s both of which take account of the critical board position. So I'll select 5-5 to discard.

After the K cut I'll play Defense to the lead.

   

Wednesday 7:12 PM

Coeurdelion goes with the flush, while Halscrib prefers the double run.
Which is more authoritative?
Often these two don't agree.

   

Wednesday 11:07 PM

Very late getting on today. Most of what needs to be said has been said. Can't see keeping a five in the hand for three points when the pair averages 8.876 (500) 1/91 in my crib. With opponent already at hole 87, will be def. def., and play off the lead.