July 14, 2019

*** This hand was suggested by james500
72*-84  ?
49%
15%
15%
12%
3%
1%
1%
Total votes: 163
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Sunday 3:17 AM
I like the Flush today. A nice combination of a good hand and a good crib. Dealer is 12 short of the next CPZ of 96. The hand has more cuts for improvement although at a lower maximum than discarding 2-T.
JQT says: I really like your observations today, Rosemarie44: The disparate cards that often comprises a FLUSH such as this (with their w-i-d-e separation in ranks) are usually very effective at minimizing Pone's ability to peg some much-needed points, points in this case that might easily enable her/him to reach a desirable position.
Rosemarie44 says: Hi JQT: Thank you for your kind words. Glad to see you have joined me in choosing this selection of cards as I was the Lone Ranger this morning.
JQT says: I typically post earlier in the day; but when posting after others, I generally do not look at others' ideas UNTIL after I post, much like yourself I believe. Therefore, in addition to ultimately 'joining' you, I more importantly agreed with your thoughts before even seeing them. And if we're not right today, at least we can proceed to fail in good company!
Rosemarie44 says: I really really like your way of thinking!
dec
6358 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Sunday 3:44 AM
I like this keep more. I call this hand an "automatic" sixteen ( 6 7 8 9 cuts ) easy to count. We need a boatfull of points here. I hope we can play on here thats my goal. dec
james500
3923 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Sunday 4:21 AM
Pone is a little behind here, my position is ok. As such, I'd like to keep hold of the 2 card in order to prevent becoming trapped in a run, which would help them more than me.

2-6-9-T (7-8) or 2-6-7-9 (8-T) both allow me to do this, and both start with a known eight points.

I'll try the 8+? option, rather than the 6+2.
JQT says: This seems like it may be the "Cinderella Story" Hand today. I wasn't too wild about Toss (8 T), and I would also worry about being on the 'wrong end' of something like a 5-6-7 Run during the pegging, but the hand itself has its appeal. If we were not so concerned here with minimizing Pone's Pegging, this is the type of arrangement in which you can sometimes obtain a real 'pegging coup' by dropping a 6 Card Reply after a 4 Card Lead, and if Pone grabs the ubiquitous 4-5-6 Run for (15-5), we can often get not only 4-5-6-7, but sometimes even score 2-3-4-5-6-7 for (27=7), and we are happy as long as Pone has no Ace or (gasp!) another 4 Card (ouch!).
Gougie00
5730 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Sunday 5:05 AM
I like the 4 card run more than I like the flush. The pone already has decent position and I need to generate some offense. Cautious offense?
mfetchCT425
1399 votes

Joined: February 2009
 
 
 
Sunday 6:37 AM
Another great puzzle by James. I like this hold slightly better than the 7-8 toss to crib and slightly better than holding the 6-7-8-9. We have the 2-9 magic 11 to guard against any face lead and pretty nice variety of cards to play off in the pegging. I think #1 goal here is to keep pone from reaching good position on 4th street. Gap cards in the crib could catch something (with the cut of 9 we have good prospects in the crib). With cut, 12 in hand, at least 3 in crib and guaranteed 1 peg, we should be in pretty good shape next deal if we can hold opponent back.
james500 says: Hi Mike, hope your weekend has been a good one. Thank you for the complimentary words.
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Sunday 7:00 AM
Toss (7 8) appears to have the best 'harmony' between our Hand and Crib today.

Just as we chose to defend as Pone a few puzzles ago, today as Dealer, we are likely to profit by maintaining a posture of OFFENSE, as we look to gain points during both the Pegging and also with our super-charged Crib.
JQT says: A Jack Lead might be troublesome, and Dealer could have (5 5 X X) or some similar such hand composition, so while we should be able to dodge any 5 Card shenanigans, I might worry most about stumbling into giving up either a 9-T-J or an 8-9-T Run towards the final volley of the pegging.
JCM
910 votes

Joined: April 2019
 
 
 
Sunday 8:28 AM
The score is 72*-84. We want to try for 85(13 points) and hold dealer from reaching 95(11 points for him).
If I keep the flush, putting 7-8 into my crib, I'll be holding 8 points between hand/crib. Only a cut of A,3,Q or K don't help. That's 16 cards not helping - though 4 of them will add 1 point if they're diamonds. That leaves 47-16 = 31 helpful cuts, which will put us well on our way to the 13 points+ we want.
The spread of cards should give me options to peg(if I need to, to make 13 pts) or defend(not peg much) if I have enough points. The 9-2 will help guard against any X-card lead.
JCM says: With the cut of the 9, we now have 15 points between hand and crib already, possibly more depending on what pone threw. So we're sitting at 87 points, possibly more. Means probably playing defense in the pegging department, to try to hold dealer back from 95 pts, if possible.
JCM says: "try to hold dealer back from 95 pts, if possible." = "try to hold PONE back from 95 pts, if possible."
JQT says: As of about Fourteen Hundred Hours Eastern Daylight Time, we're holding fast onto second place at about 15% of the total votes cast, neck-and-neck with that 'other' FLUSH!
JCM says: Isn't it nice to be in the minority yet still feel you're right? - One of those flushes just seems the balanced way to go, and I like that ours puts 7-8 in our crib, and gives pegging options, to boot.
JCM says: As of about 12:50pm PDT, we've dropped to 3rd place. We're 15% of total votes cast and the other flush is 16%. - But I'm still sticking to my guns. RAS has swung into a defense of his 6-7-8-9 keep - which is not at all unreasonable, IMO. I just think our flush, with points in the crib, gives better balance - and good prospects of achieving both our aims - namely, reaching 85+ for ourselves and holding Pone under 95. - Interested to see what Halscrib/Coeurdelion say, later on today.
JQT says: At Twenty-One Hundred Hours, as the waxing moon rises ever-so-brilliantly over the clear and dry Southeastern skies of Western New York State, let's just enjoy not knowing who's right today, for just a little while longer.
JCM says: Looks like we'll never know :-) 10:25pm PDT
JQT says: To sleep, perchance to dream . . .
zeke76
1396 votes

Joined: August 2018
 
 
 
Sunday 10:40 AM
Flushed
Ras2829
5154 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Sunday 1:10 PM
My eye is trained to look for flushes. Will nearly always hold if equal in points to the best possible retention. Will give up points in hand score to put the following discards to own crib: 5-5, 2-3, 5-J, 5-6, 5-K, 5-10, 5-Q, and 4-5. The 7-8 is just a little too far down the list to give up on that 16-point hand prospect. In addition if discarding 7-8, the average is further diminished since we are holding the 6-9, cards either side of the 7-8, that moves the 7-8 even further down the list. What are chances that opponent can reach 4th street CPZ (95-99). There's 1 chance in 3.5; so my choice is optimal from the time of looking at the cards for the first time and remaining so after seeing the starter card. If choosing defense, believe the suited 2-6-9-10 might be superior by a hair. At what point would I have considered a defense strategy? If I had been ten points further down the board or n/d needed 6-9 points to reach 4th street dealing 95-99. Admittedly my play over the years has become more offense-based with good results. Often when HalscribCLX chooses optimal, my choice will be offense. Quite often when the cribbot chooses defense, RAS will opt for optimal. Knowing that I have a guaranteed peg, 16 points in hand, and a ? crib know will be at a minimum of hole 89. So take pegs that look reasonably safe. Let the n/d assume the risks. Based on my scant empirical data, the difference between the 2-6-9-10 flush and the 6-7-8-9 is less than .2 of a point favoring the 4-card run. It continues to amaze me as to how frequent these four cards turn into 16 points. So it is today.
joekayak
1873 votes

Joined: May 2016
 
 
 
Sunday 4:45 PM
To flush or not. At lease it made mw think today. I'm with Ras. After that cut, let's try to get into the low to mid 90's with pegs. I'd rather go down swinging than take strike 3 defensively.
HalscribCLX
5318 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Monday 2:21 AM
At 72*-84 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_________________Pone's
Defense___Hand___Pegs___Crib_Total____W3 %____W4 %
2-6-9-10___8.07+(-2.11)+6.26=12.22____18.1____33.4
6-7-8-9___10.54+(-2.00)+3.53=12.07____19.1____31.9
2-6-7-9___10.17+(-2.13)+3.51=11.55____16.8____32.1
2-6-7-8____9.39+(-2.09)+3.99=11.29____17.1____31.1

Defense_______L3 %____L4 %
2-6-9-10______42.1____56.4
6-7-8-9_______43.7____57.7
2-6-7-9_______42.8____58.1
2-6-7-8_______42.8____58.9

2-6-9-10 is best for expected averages by 0.15pt and is best for Win %s and Loss %s both of which take account of the board position at this critical position. So I'll select 7-8 to discard.

After the 9 cut I'll play a Safe strategy to the lead.
Coeurdelion
5595 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Monday 2:57 AM
Two flushes or 6-7-8-9?:

2-6-9-10: 6pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.53) = 12½pts

2-6-7-9: 8pts + 3¾pts (Schell: 3.80) = 11¾pts

6-7-8-9: 8pts + 3½pts (Schell: 3.55) = 11½pts

Potential:

2-6-9-10: Improves with 222, 3333, 4444, 5555, 666, 777, 888, 999, 101010, JJJJ = 34 cuts = 73.9% up to 9/10pts with 666, 888, 999, JJJJ = 13 cuts. Plus 8 diamonds for 1pt extra for the flush = 8/46 = 0.17pt.

2-6-7-9: Improves with 222, 4444, 5555, 666, 777, 888, 999 = 23 cuts = 23/46 = 50.0% up to 11/12/14pts with 222, 5555, 666, 777, 888, 999 = 19 cuts. Plus 8 diamonds for 1pt extra for the flush = 8/46 = 0.17pt.

6-7-8-9: Improves with AAAA, 222, 5555, 666, 777, 888, 999, 101010 = 26 cuts = 26/46 = 56.5% up to 16pts with 666, 777, 888, 999 = 12 cuts.

Position:

We're 2pts ahead of position and Pone is 2pts short so I'll play Defense.

Pegging:

Flushes will normally peg well and playing Defense I think they will peg better than 6-7-8-9.

Summary:

2-6-9-10 starts with at least ¾pt more and has the most cuts for improvement. It has a lower maximum but still 13 cuts for 9/10pts. It also should peg well Defensively so I'll throw 7-8.