Saturday 3:03 AM

I will have to read up again about the frequency of fives being dealt in a hand... at any rate I did see 5-5-6-6 but opted to play percentages here and keep eight total if I had a sizable lead I would have gone for it. Happy on my keep anyway. offense. dec

   

Saturday 3:34 AM

Just don’t see any other way here-the 2 fives in the dealers hand always hold great pegging potential-and with the discard of the pair of sixes to the crib it’s likely the cut will hit us somewhere

   

Saturday 3:35 AM

This would be a wonderful arrangement to be dealt if, say we needed Twenty-Four Points to somehow finagle a WIN or to salvage a SKUNK, from perhaps a score such as (90*-108) or (59*-104), respectively; who knows, we might get our Bougie Beret on and try for the likes of Keep (5 5 6 6) and Toss (2 8). But are we playing Cribbage, or Fishing?

Or even slightly more to the wilder-side of dreaming: maybe if we were in that savage-sort of Bacchanalian Mood, wanting to gamble on getting a Ten-Point Hand as well as a Ten-Point Crib, we could simply Keep (2 6 6 8) and Toss (5 5). The symmetry of it all looks so invigorating!

But the thing is ... we're Dealer at Hole 10, and our Opponent is at Hole 12. Let's check that score AGAIN: (10*-12)!

One thing in my opinion that helps a LOT in Cribbage (and, frankly, in LIFE as well...) is to put any potential problem in the form of a question, and examine it carefully before acting. I contend that one of the best questions we can ask ourselves in Cribbage is the following five words: "Do we need the points?"

I've already mentioned on numerous occasions that Cribbage is a game of probabilities; or, that it is probabilistic. Players who do not grasp this use terms like "go for" a Cut Card, or "I made my discard on a hunch" and so on, this-and-that, etc.

Meanwhile, those who simply play the Expected Averages know that, given enough discards, if we can raise our odds or percentages by just a fraction of a point per Deal (and expert players often seek to do this merely on a per-GAME basis!), that these small amounts shall frequently add up to WINS.

So, by all means: if and when we need a Big Crib, Toss (5 5) and have at it; similarly, if and when we need to negotiate a whole street in order to have any hope of winning, aim high for that Twenty-Four-Point Hand! (Or maybe there's a wad of dough in the Twenty-Four-Point Jar! Seize the day!)

But this early in a game, it's usually best to simply be calm, make the proper split among the cards, and move on. Thus, I'll Toss (6 6) today ... and I'll try not to visibly cringe if we Cut a 4 Card or a 7 Card. For the fact is that it's not an easy thing to "make up" those "lost" points if and when we don't Toss (6 6).

And that's because if we indeed do not Toss (6 6), we would be splitting the 'static' number of points in half, from Eight Points all the way down to Four Points! And I'm waging that it's probably unlikely that only Eight Cuts out of Forty-Six will 'make up' that difference in the long run.

   

Saturday 3:47 AM

This retention and discard has the best value for hand and crib. It's been said by others.

   

Saturday 4:07 AM

Maybe I've misunderstood Ras' guide regarding sacrifice limits.
A four point reduction for 5-5, but maintaining the possibility of 12+ in hand.

Knowing that Pone can't have been dealt three of the four fives, I'm inclined to believe (hope), that they may have had no use for any X cards they may have been dealt, and discarded them.

   

Saturday 8:17 AM

Discard the 6's for me. It's all been said above. I would lead the 2. There is little chance Opp. has the 4th 5, and we have no X-cards, so leading a 5 is no avail here.

   

Saturday 9:29 AM

Best expected averages

   

Saturday 11:20 AM

Early on. "Only" minus 7. Lots of cribbage to be played. More afraid of messing up a decent hand/crib of 8 points than I am enamored (at this point in the game/position) of a home run. Toss the two 6's.

   

Saturday 12:00 PM

Yeah, I'll hold 6 + 2. The wonderful cut fives me 14 with great potential in the crib. I will peg offensively, as I want to make sure I get onto second street before the start of the next deal.

   

Saturday 1:29 PM

Dealer seldom retains 5-5-6-6. So it is here. The time to carefully consider holding 5-5-6-6 is when playing as non-dealer. Here much preferable to start with 8 points on the deal. Am thinking off., off. and once seeing the starter card for big help to hand and good chance for crib of 8 or more will shift to optimal pegging strategy.

   

Saturday 2:31 PM

There is a time and place to hold the 5566 together and shoot the moon. If I was down by 20, I would entertain the notion. Right, toss the 6-6 and be prepared to kick yourself if a 4 turns up.

   

Saturday 3:57 PM

2-5-5-8 (6-6), 5-5-6-6 (2-8) or perhaps 2-6-6-8 (5-5):

2-5-5-8: 6pts + 5¾pts (Schell: 5.76) = 11¾pts

5-5-6-6: 4pts + 3½pts (Schell: 3.66) = 7½pts

2-6-6-8: 2pts + 8¾pts (Schell: 8.79) = 10¾pts

Potential:

2-5-5-8: Improves with 222, 3333, 55, 7777, 888 + 16xXs = 32 cuts = 32/46 = 69.6% up to 10/12/14pts with 222, 55, 888 + 16xXs = 24 cuts.

5-5-6-6: Improves with 3333, 4444, 55, 66, 7777, 9999 + 16xXs = 36 cuts = 36/46 = 78.3% up to 8/10/16/24pts with 4444, 55, 66, 7777, 9999 + 16xXs = 32 cuts.

2-6-6-8: Improves with AAAA, 222, 3333, 55, 66, 7777, 888, 9999 = 26 cuts = 26/46 = 56.5% up to 6/14pts with AAAA, 66, 7777, 9999 = 14 cuts.

Position:

It looks like we were First Pone so I'll continue to play Offense.

Pegging:

Playing Offense I think 2-5-5-8 will peg better.

Summary:

5-5-6-6 has most cuts for improvement and more for 8-24pts plus the best maximum. But will that make up 1/4¼pts difference in starting value? I don't think so especially as I think 2-5-5-8 will peg better. So I'll throw 6-6.

   

Saturday 3:59 PM

At 10*-12 playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total____W8 %____W9 %
2-5-5-8___8.87+3.41+5.43=17.71____27.7____32.7
2-6-6-8___4.61+2.80+8.73=16.14____24.8____29.6
5-5-6-6___9.13+3.20+3.49=15.82____25.2____29.1

Offense_______L8 %____L9 %
2-5-5-8_______28.8____42.3
2-6-6-8_______28.9____44.0
5-5-6-6_______29.1____44.0

2-5-5-8 is best for expected averages by 1.57pts and is significantly best for Win %s and Loss %s both of which take account of the board position. So I'll select 6-6 to discard.

After the 5 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.