June 15, 2019

*** This hand was suggested by james500
44*-57  ?
72%
20%
6%
Total votes: 148
Rosemarie44
2051 votes

Joined: March 2016

 
 
 
Saturday 3:22 AM
This hand increases with every cut. Tossing 8-8, 5-6, or 5-8 all start with 6 points in the hand and 2 in the crib.
Twenty cuts increase hand to 9, 14, or 16 points.
Rosemarie44 says: Combined averages are 9.90 for expected average hand plus crib 5.50 points (15.40 points) Tossing 5-8, 8.80 for averages expected hand plus crib 5.56 (14.36 points) These are Ras's crib values.
james500
3896 votes

Joined: June 2013

 
 
 
Saturday 3:40 AM
I think this option may be best because of its pegging ability: a two card eleven with the 3-8, and a 5 trap on the second sequence with 4-6.

X(10)-3(13)-X(23)-8(31/2).
X(10)-6(16)-5(21)-4(25/3+2).

The cut of another 8 suits everyone, whatever they chose.
dec
6328 votes

Joined: April 2008

 
 
 
Saturday 4:18 AM
All out offense . A six cut might have been real good for us. Now hope they have some kind of face card hand to play off and they helped the crib just a lil. Might still be able to do some trapping in the pegging. dec
joekayak
1873 votes

Joined: May 2016

 
 
 
Saturday 4:24 AM
What Rosemarie said. Plus we have a two card 11 in this hand also.
Gougie00
5703 votes

Joined: March 2008

 
 
 
Saturday 4:33 AM
88 generally gets no help from the opponent, but this could be the one time. 3456 should be a nice pegger, and I'll play offense.
glmccuskey
4076 votes

Joined: April 2011

 
 
 
Saturday 4:45 AM
3-4-5-6 is such a good pegging hand and since we should be on the offensive in this board position, I’ll keep it.
Ras2829
5126 votes

Joined: November 2008

 
 
 
Saturday 5:07 AM
As much as I love to flush, can't do so here. Same song - another verse, just an echo this morn.
Andy (muesli64)
2221 votes

Joined: August 2009

 
 
 
Saturday 6:02 AM
As above
mrob2199
1408 votes

Joined: February 2009

 
 
 
Saturday 7:02 AM
Have to keep this run and excellent pegging hand-could make a slight case for 3-4-8-8 with the 5-6 discard but that is clearly not the first option
LoneStarPegger
811 votes

Joined: January 2008

 
 
 
Saturday 10:22 AM
Ditto as above.
Coeurdelion
5574 votes

Joined: October 2007

 
 
 
Saturday 2:58 PM
Must look at the flush with suited 5-8, 3-4-8-8 (5-6) and 3-4-5-6 (8-8):

3-4-6-8D: 6pts + 5½pts (Schell: 5.48) = 11½pts

3-4-8-8: 6pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.63) = 12½pts

3-4-5-6: 6pts + 5¾pts (Schell: 5.45) = 11¾pts

Potential:

3-4-6-8D: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 333, 444, 555, 666, 7777, 88, 9999 = 30 cuts = 30/46 = 65.2% up to 10/11/12pts with 2222, 444, 555, 666, 7777, 88 = 19 cuts.

3-4-8-8: Improves with 2222, 333, 444, 555, 7777, 88 = 19 cuts = 19/46 = 41.3% up to 9/10/12pts with all cuts.

3-4-5-6: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 333, 444, 555, 666, 7777, 88, 9999 + 16xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 9/14/16 with 2222, 333, 444, 555, 666, 7777 = 20 cuts.

Position:

We're at positional hole and Pone is 3pts short of where they would like to be so I'll play Defense.

Pegging:

I think the flush and 3-4-5-6 will peg well but playing Defense 3-4-8-8 should also peg well.

Summary:

3-4-5-6 has a starting value ¾pt lower than 3-4-8-8 but it has guaranteed improvement and 20 cuts for 9-16pts. It may be difficult to peg defensively but even so I'll throw the 8-8.
HalscribCLX
5297 votes

Joined: February 2008

 
 
 
Saturday 3:43 PM
At 44*-57 playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total____W5 %____W6 %
3-4-5-6___9.87+3.85+5.30=19.02____22.5____33.2
3-4-6-8D__8.76+3.59+5.53=17.88____17.9____30.3
3-4-8-8___7.85+3.02+6.53=17.40____17.9____31.6

Offense_______L5 %____L6 %
3-4-5-6_______40.1____50.8
3-4-6-8D______39.9____54.7
3-4-8-8_______36.5____52.4

3-4-5-6 is best for expected averages by 1.14pts and also appreciably best for Win %s. It isn't lowest for Loss %s but even so I'll select 8-8 to discard.

After the 8 cut I'll play Optimally (cautious offense) to the lead.