Friday 3:12 AM

I will play the odds for a next hand count. There are still a few cuts will make this hand twelve or more. Lead a four minimize any pegging damage. dec

   

Friday 3:16 AM

I believe I need to bite the bullet and hold 12 points in this position with a possibility of 14-24 points. Defense in the pegging which is helped with the three 4's in the hand. Let's see what others recommend.

   

Friday 3:32 AM

I don't need all twelve points, but they're hard to turn down.
Not the cut I wanted to see.
4H lead.

   

Friday 4:02 AM

While the pat 12 hand will put us in fantastic position for our next deal,the 5-j is just too risky to give to the opponent in this spot-even an 8 or 9 crib can be fatal if it’s combined with a good hand and some pegs-by keeping the 4-4-4-5 we are guaranteed to at least be at 100-and that is not counting the cut or pegging-hold the opponent down and we will be a huge favorite to win in the next deal or first count in the hand after

   

Friday 5:11 AM

Went defense with the lead.

   

Friday 5:59 AM

Agree with Dan, Rob, and Zeke today. If this was the first hand of the game or neutral position and we were pone, would retain the dozen hand every time. At this position, with dealer a little short and us in pretty good shape even with a 6 starter hand, I think primary goal is to hold back opponent. I don’t love that cut but could have been really scary if we had tossed 5-X- will lead from strength, 4h, and peg defensively.

   

Friday 5:59 AM

My gut was to toss the 5J. No need to bet the farm. I reluctantly toss 7J. Lead the 4. Lets hope we dont end up losing by 5 or less.

   

Friday 6:12 AM

We're in a favorable 4th street position, no need to risk 5J.

   

Friday 6:24 AM

I’m not inclined to let my opponent back in this game. I’ll lead the four of hearts and peg as defensively as I can.

   

Friday 7:19 AM

As most of the above said, I can't give up the 5-J in this position. "He who fights and runs away lives to fight another day"

   

Friday 7:25 AM

Ditto!

   

Friday 8:09 AM

At an analogous but earlier relative position, say 42-37*, I'd definitely toss the 5-J, but I tend to be more cautious on fourth street.

   

Friday 11:01 AM

So I took some time to really think this one through. First question, what rule of thumb does everyone use for average score per round? For my analysis I used 10 for pone and 16 for dealer. If I took the for sure 12 plus estimated 2 pts pegging (instead of 10 pt average), that puts me at 108 and dealer at 105 (using 16 average). That seems a good position for winning next hand. But giving dealer a J,5 is a risk, but how much over the 16? Since they count first next deal, this is important. If I keep the 6 for sure points plus 2 pegging, then I'm at 102 and dealer at 105. Which means another hand as dealer ending 118 to 115 (using averages), and then a third hand at which time I'm in postion to win as pone, either by pegging or scoring first. I think there is a risk in dragging this out two more hands also. But since I have control over the risk right now, I decide to err on the side of caution and be patient for the win.

   

Friday 1:39 PM

Dealer has deal short of 4th street CPZ (95-99); don't turn that disadvantage into advantage. The 5-J to opponent crib averages 8.136 (169) 2/91 and scores 8 or more 51.851%. This game should be a win for us with 8 known points. If we score no pegs, will deal from 102. Losing with the deal there is less than 10% based on scant empirical data. We are often rewarded for a good decision in cribbage. Aren't you glad to hold the five spot in hand after cutting the 5 starter card?Will lead the 4H, try to dump the 5 next play. If the first four was safe, the other two ought to be even safer. It's def., def., SAFE.

   

Friday 3:24 PM

4-4-4-7 (5-J) or 4-4-4-5 (7-J):

4-4-4-7: 12pts - 8pts (Schell: 7.76) = +4pts

4-4-4-5: 6pts - 4½pts (Schell: 4.68) = +1½pts

Potential:

4-4-4-7: Improves with 3333, 4, 777, 8888 = 12 cuts = 12/46 = 26.1% up to 20/24pts with 4, 777 = 4 cuts.

4-4-4-5: Improves with 2222, 3333, 4, 555, 6666, 777 + 15xXs = 34 cuts = 34/46 = 73.9% up to 12/17/21pts with 2222, 3333, 4, 6666, 777 = 16 cuts.

Position:

We're only 2pts short of position and dealer is 7pts short so I'll play Defense.

Pegging:

I think 4-4-4-5 will peg marginally better.

Summary:

4-4-4-7 has a starting value 2½pts higher than 4-4-4-5 but the latter has many more cuts for improvement and 16 cuts for 12-21pts. It may also peg marginally better. I'm not sure that this will catch up the 2½pts but as we're playing Defense I'll throw the 7-J.

   

Friday 3:27 PM

At 94-89* playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_________________Dlr's
Defense___Hand___Pegs____Crib___Total___W1 %___W2 %
4-4-4-5___10.09+(-2.63)+(-4.62)=2.84____0.4____42.5
4-4-4-7___13.19+(-2.80)+(-7.79)=2.54____0.2____49.9

Defense______L1 %___L2 %
4-4-4-5______0.2____13.1
4-4-4-7______1.1____24.1

4-4-4-5 is better for expected averages by 0.30pt and although 4-4-4-7 is much better for Win %s 4-4-4-5 is very much lower for Loss %s. As I'm recommending a Defense strategy and the expected averages favor 4-4-4-5 I'll select 7-J to discard.

After the 5 cut I'll lead the 4H and play Defense:

Lead____________Dealer's Pegging Pts
4_____________________(-2.52)
5_____________________(-3.58)