May 21, 2019

*** This hand was suggested by james500 on ecribbage.com
32-42*  ?
63%
20%
14%
1%
Total votes: 167
dec
6355 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Tuesday 3:09 AM
A few choices here but one immediately stuck out to me. 4D-AH is what I would do here. First it starts with eleven overall, second this pegging hand usually nets an advantage in pegs. I would not be surprised to see either 2-3 or 6-A do well also. If another four comes up could be thirty or more points in our favor. That is what is really needed here to get back into the game. We now have thirteen known. Three lead we still need to think offensively here. dec
Guest says: Do over 6-A . Enough siad. dec
Guest says: c'mon - why give opponent points when you do not have too.
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Tuesday 3:32 AM
For me, I was looking at A-6 or 4-6 to opponent's crib. I like the double run which has a three card magic eleven, a safer toss to opponent and fewer cuts for improvement but at higher value than tossing the 4-6. Overall, ver close statistics here.
Great puzzle james500.
Guest says: Another piece of cake
mrob2199
1432 votes

Joined: February 2009
 
 
 
Tuesday 4:00 AM
Keep the guaranteed 10 and throw the less dangerous A-6 to opponent’s crib-we lead the 2 and in an ideal world dealer would play a 9 and match our 4 after the 15,thinking we would most likely lead from a pair
Guest says: I went this way. What I really like about your posts is explaining your lead. I would have led the 4 to try to get trips, or the 3 to get a picture. S :)
Guest says: I also like it when you explain the lead and why. This is what I have the most difficulty with. Have a good handle on what to keep and what to throw, but always struggle with what to lead.
Guest says: Many times you keep a hand just because you want a certain lead card or a particular pegging strategy to employ as well-they are important factors in your discard
Guest says: I look forward to see how you explain the hand you chose . Very interesting
orvani
328 votes

Joined: June 2011
 
 
 
Tuesday 4:19 AM
I'm not think that to donate at least 2pts to the dealer by throwing 4-A into his crib realy benefits in my way to come back into the game again because its a 5, for that reason I prefer to keep the double run with a real chance of getting much more points after uncovered the start card
Gougie00
5727 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Tuesday 4:54 AM
I'll keep the double run. Nothing makes a 5 appear faster as the starter than tossing a 4-6 in the opponents crib. I'll toss the less chancy A-6.
mfetchCT425
1396 votes

Joined: February 2009
 
 
 
Tuesday 5:21 AM
With opponent a little short on 2nd street as dealer (ideally dealer would like to be at least at hole 44 I believe), I like the more defensive toss of A-6, and hold the powerful double run. This hand improves on every cut, with a few shots at 16-18 points and quite a few shots for a dozen. With dealer short, I would probably lead from strength (the 4h in case I can utilize the flush fake), although I love mrob’s pegging logic too. Another great puzzle from James.
zeke76
1393 votes

Joined: August 2018
 
 
 
Tuesday 5:22 AM
It’s been said. The increased safety of this toss to the dealer’s crib was a big factor for me.
dgergens
938 votes

Joined: January 2018
 
 
 
Tuesday 6:15 AM
You have a guaranteed 11 points if you keep the flush and guaranteed 10 if you keep the double run, so why risk giving dealer a 4,6 when you can give them an A,6?
james500
3920 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Tuesday 6:21 AM
Ecribbage gives us another interesting dilemma.

Even though I know it's a guaranteed two points to Dealer, I'd like good position for the next deal.

3 lead from 3-2-6 combo.
JRCeagle78
1054 votes

Joined: June 2016
 
 
 
Tuesday 6:35 AM
Keep the flush. I have been burned far too many times with a 4-6 discard. A-2-3-4 is not a hand I like to keep with this board position, though the flush does make it look tempting. I'll lead the 3.
wasa
3015 votes

Joined: November 2014
 
 
 
Tuesday 6:41 AM
Others have said it well. One of my rules of thumb (that I often break!) is never toss opponent cards that will give a 24 point crib. If I toss 4-6, how will I feel if opponent tossed 5-5? Went with safer A-6 and still kept the points. Others comment "guaranteed 11 points if you keep the flush" yet C. Liam Brown has minimum 10 points keeping either of the two flushes.
Jazzselke
2584 votes

Joined: March 2009
 
 
 
Tuesday 7:18 AM
No reason to hold a flush for an extra point or two, when you can still hold a powerful hand that will be at least 10, and possibly 16 or 18. And also throwing less dangerous cards. The only downside is losing the pegging value of 2346, but we are not in a desperate situation
horus93
1281 votes

Joined: December 2017
 
 
 
Tuesday 8:10 AM
Holding such good cards I don't think we need to be too offensive and toss a-4. This should peg better too on average, I think.
Ras2829
5151 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Tuesday 9:41 AM
Ten points down and needing the deal in 2nd street CPZ (43-47) it's off., off., opt. for me. Dealer is one hole shy of that coveted position. The suited 2-3-4-6 admittedly is a wonderful hand for non-dealer to pass up. Offensive pegging favors that choice by about .4 over the double run. Will try to minimize dealer crib with the A-6. Here's a short profile on he A-6 and A-4 discards. A-6 average is 4.967 (769) 46/91 scores two or less 29.388%. The A-4 average is 5.618 (403) 59/91, scores two points 11.689% and never less. More later.
joekayak says: However, you often point out the pegging possibilities of the 2-3-4-6 combo as non dealer.
Ras2829 says: As non-dealer choosing an optimal pegging strategy, the 4H is the better lead as it leaves three cards in sequence allowing me to score 15-2 on a 7/8/9 response. On either a response of 8 or 9 am able to fake the flush with small heart (2/3). In addition if dealer playing the common hand of 5-X-X-X, n/d gets a chance to show how the 3-card 11 works (3-4-4). The lead of the four spot forces the five off the play, the dealer ten pointer follows, n/d advances the count to 18 with the remaining four forcing a five off the play again, count advances to 28, and the trey scores 31-2. Don't believe dealer would pair my four with a ten point lead. Even so, there is less chance for dealer to pair that four than there is by my leading from a single.
Ras2829 says: Admittedly, faking a flush in which the cards naturally fit together (suited 2-3 or 2-4 for that matter)is not likely to register. However if showing suited 9-K, 9-Q 6-K, 8-Q, etc. most observant players will assume you are playing a flush as these cards are not often seen together.
joekayak
1873 votes

Joined: May 2016
 
 
 
Tuesday 12:14 PM
A-6 still leaves me with good possibilities to get to next CPZ plus I prefer A-6 to dealers crib
Coeurdelion
5592 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Tuesday 3:18 PM
I think it must be between the two flushes 2-3-4-6 and A-2-3-4 or the double-run:

2-3-4H-6: 9pts - 6pts (Schell: 5.72) = +3pts

A-2-3-4H: 8pts + 5½pts (Schell: 5.34) = +2½pts

2-3-4-4: 8pts + 4¾pts (Schell: 4.91) = +3¼pts

Potential:

2-3-4H-6: Improves with AAA, 222, 333, 44, 5555, 666, 7777, 8888, 9999 + 16xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 13/15/16pts with 222, 333, 44, 5555, 666, 9999 = 19 cuts. Plus 8 hearts for 1pt extra for the flush = 8/46 = 0.17pts.

A-2-3-4H: Improves with AAA, 222, 333, 44, 5555, 666, 7777, 8888, 9999 + 16xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 11/12/14pts with AAA, 222, 333, 44, 5555, 8888, 9999 + 16xXs = 39 cuts. Plus 8 hearts for 1pt extra for the flush = 8/46 = 0.17pts.

2-3-4-4: Improves with AAA, 222, 333, 44, 5555, 666, 7777, 8888, 9999 + 16xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 12/16/17pts with 222, 333, 44, 5555, 666, 8888, 9999 = 23 cuts.

Position:

Dealer is 2pts short of position and we're way behind. I'll play Offense.

Pegging:

All these hands will peg well. With a 3-card magic eleven 2-3-4-6 and 2-3-4-4 should peg better.

Summary:

All three hands have guaranteed improvement and although A-2-3-4H doesn't have the best maximum it has 39 cuts for 11-14pts plus an extra 0.17pt for a heart turn-up as does 2-3-4H-6. However 2-3-4-4 is best for starting value by ¼pt over 2-3-4H-6 and ¾pt over A-2-3-4H. So I'll throw the A-6.
HalscribCLX
5315 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Tuesday 3:35 PM
At 32-42* playing Defense for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_________________Dlr's
Defense___Hand___Pegs____Crib___Total___W6 %____W7 %
2-3-4-4___11.87+(-2.52)+(-4.57)=4.78____24.5____35.0
A-2-3-4H__12.26+(-2.70)+(-4.98)=4.58____25.3____34.7
2-3-4H-6__12.59+(-2.59)+(-5.72)=4.28____27.3____35.0

Defense______L6 %____L7 %
2-3-4-4______39.1____46.7
A-2-3-4H_____41.8____47.5
2-3-4H-6_____43.2____47.7

2-3-4-4 is best for expected averages by 0.20pt and is lowest for Loss %s. Although 2-3-4H-6 is slightly best for Win %s I'll select A-6 to discard.

After the QH cut I'll lead the 4H and play Optimally (cautious offense):

Lead_________Net Pegging Pts.
4________________(-0.35)
3________________(-0.50)
2________________(-0.63)