May 11, 2019

*** This hand was suggested by cwed
60-46*  ?
52%
16%
13%
7%
3%
1%
1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 152

Play this scenario out against a robot designed by Hal Mueller for eCribbage.com

james500
2136 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Saturday 3:15 AM
I'd do 2-3 if I were dealing, but 8-3 here because I'm not. 2,4,5,6,7,8 and 9 are all helpful cuts.
6-7 may tempt some brave souls who want to keep 2-2-3 together incase of an Ace,4 or X cut.
Interesting puzzle.
dec
4475 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Saturday 3:23 AM
I believe the contention might be throw away the 2-3 to keep two more points in the hand. I go with averages here seeing 2-4-5-6-7-8-9 , thats twenty four cuts add on hand. Now strat changed on cut lead the seven on hopefully it will be play on. I like my game lead here still after. Too unagressive? dec
Rosemarie44
1219 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Saturday 3:24 AM
Toss 3-8 to dealer. Hand has a 3 card magic eleven.
horus93
419 votes

Joined: December 2017

   
Saturday 4:31 AM
If we could keep or had a very good likelihood of hitting 10+ points between hand and pegging I'd be more inclined to throw 2-3 here but 2-6-7-8 fails on too many cuts to take that risk imo.

Defense to the cut aiming to keep opponent short of 60 for next hand.

This is an example of a spot where an unthinking application of positional shorthand (+0/-24) would lead you astray into making an overly risky play.
polynumeral
2937 votes

Joined: December 2008

   
Saturday 5:09 AM
Nice puzzle cwed. If pone and crib were reversed my reply would change
Gougie00
3899 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Saturday 5:38 AM
Another hedge. (must be hedge week) No sense giving the dealer 2-3 to hold 7 points. Not that I am crazy about tossing 3-8, but it has the less chance of going boom. Lead the 2.
glmccuskey
2978 votes

Joined: April 2011

   
Saturday 5:54 AM
I play my position first. All out offense. I’ll lead the two and take any pegs offered. By leading the two with these middle cards you can score on a 5-6-7-8 reply.
cwed
803 votes

Joined: October 2014

   
Saturday 6:34 AM
The basic choices are toss 2-3 or 3-8. (Why can't it be my crib whenever I get hands like this?!) As I've stated before: I hate playing defense, but I have to do so in this position, so I decided to give up one point and hold 2-2-6-7. With a terrible cut, I will take any pegging points offered. Thus, the 2 is a good lead: if paired, I'll take the trips; if the dealer responds with an X-card, I'll play the 7 next, hoping for yet a second X-card from the dealer so I get 31-2.
Jazzselke
1224 votes

Joined: March 2009

Saturday 8:09 AM
Another way to analyze this dilemma is that by holding either 2267 or 2678, we are looking for similar vards
Jazzselke
1224 votes

Joined: March 2009

Saturday 8:19 AM
..cards to be cut. With the 2267, a 2, 6, 7 or 8 still gives us 11 or 12. A 5 will actually yield 11 instead of 10. Yes, an ace shuts us out, and adds 2 to 2678. And a 9 would be 8 with 2267 and 10 with 2678. But I think we can afford the downside of foregoing the possibility of the cuts for up to 14 or 16 points with 2678 to avoid the risk of 23 and letting our opponent back in the game.
mrob2199
39 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Saturday 8:29 AM
Well explained Dan-you are looking at the same cuts helping your hand with either discard,so no reason to risk the 2-3 toss there
dgergens
337 votes

Joined: January 2018

   
Saturday 12:56 PM
Have a great weekend to all.
Ras2829
3373 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Saturday 2:56 PM
Went with majority today and held six points. My second choice would be 2-2-3-8. Errands have stacked up. More later.
Coeurdelion
3844 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Saturday 3:56 PM
I think it's between 2-6-7-8 (2-3) or 3-6-7-8 (2-2) or perhaps a more Defensive 2-2-6-7 (3-8):

2-6-7-8: 7pts - 7˝pts (Schell: 7.33) = -˝pt

3-6-7-8: 5pts - 6˝pts (Schell: 6.38) = -1˝pts

2-2-6-7: 6pts - 5pts (Schell: 5.05) = +1pt

Potential:

2-6-7-8: Improves with AAAA, 22, 5555, 666, 777, 888, 9999 = 23 cuts = 23/46 = 50.0% up to 10/11/14/16pts with 22, 5555, 666, 777, 888, 9999 = 19 cuts.

3-6-7-8: Improves with AAAA, 22, 333, 4444, 5555, 666, 777, 888, 9999 = 30 cuts = 30/46 = 65.2% up to 8/12pts with 5555, 666, 777, 888, 9999 = 17 cuts.

2-2-6-7: Improves with 22, 5555, 666, 777, 888, 9999 = 19 cuts = 19/46 = 41.3% up to 11/12pts with 22, 5555, 666, 777, 888 = 15 cuts.

Position:

Dealer is in positional hole +2pts and we are on target to reach 70pts with the average 10 points. So I'll play Offense but a little cautiously.

Pegging:

All three hands will peg well but I think 2-2-6-7 with a 3 card magic eleven will peg best.

Summary:

2-2-6-7 starts with the most by 1˝/2˝pts but it has the fewest cuts for improvement but it still has 15 cuts for 11/12pts. Plus it will peg very well. So I'll throw the more cautious 3-8.
HalscribCLX
3607 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Saturday 4:08 PM
At 60-46* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs__Crib___Total___W4 %____W5 %
2-2-6-7___8.15+1.20+(-4.30)=5.05____14.3____50.6
2-2-3-8___7.96+2.20+(-5.50)=4.66____15.8____53.2
2-6-7-8___9.67+1.28+(-7.25)=3.40____18.1____55.7

Offense______L4 %____L5 %
2-2-6-7______0.8_____7.8
2-2-3-8______1.4_____8.7
2-6-7-8______1.6_____9.6

2-2-6-7 is best for expected averages by 0.39pt and although it's not best for Win %s it is lowest for Loss 5s. So I'll select 3-8 to discard.

After the K cut I'll lead a 2 and play Offense:

Lead_____________Our Pegging Pts.
2______________________1.25
7______________________1.18
6______________________1.10