May 11, 2019

*** This hand was suggested by cwed
60-46*  ?
52%
16%
13%
7%
3%
1%
1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 152
james500
3917 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Saturday 3:15 AM
I'd do 2-3 if I were dealing, but 8-3 here because I'm not. 2,4,5,6,7,8 and 9 are all helpful cuts.
6-7 may tempt some brave souls who want to keep 2-2-3 together incase of an Ace,4 or X cut.
Interesting puzzle.
dec
6352 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 3:23 AM
I believe the contention might be throw away the 2-3 to keep two more points in the hand. I go with averages here seeing 2-4-5-6-7-8-9 , thats twenty four cuts add on hand. Now strat changed on cut lead the seven on hopefully it will be play on. I like my game lead here still after. Too unagressive? dec
Guest says: debate on keeping one more point? Hope to see it. dec
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Saturday 3:24 AM
Toss 3-8 to dealer. Hand has a 3 card magic eleven.
horus93
1281 votes

Joined: December 2017
 
 
 
Saturday 4:31 AM
If we could keep or had a very good likelihood of hitting 10+ points between hand and pegging I'd be more inclined to throw 2-3 here but 2-6-7-8 fails on too many cuts to take that risk imo.

Defense to the cut aiming to keep opponent short of 60 for next hand.

This is an example of a spot where an unthinking application of positional shorthand (+0/-24) would lead you astray into making an overly risky play.
horus93 says: But if dealer was at, say, 55 I'd be much more inclined to toss 2-3 because at that point his surplus is too great for us to stand much shot winning by lengthening the game and we'd be more locked into an offensive posture.
polynumeral
4527 votes

Joined: December 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 5:09 AM
Nice puzzle cwed. If pone and crib were reversed my reply would change
cwed says: Yep, I would definitely toss 2-3 to my crib.
Gougie00
5724 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 5:38 AM
Another hedge. (must be hedge week) No sense giving the dealer 2-3 to hold 7 points. Not that I am crazy about tossing 3-8, but it has the less chance of going boom. Lead the 2.
King Richard says: Agree - Last thing we need is a crib boom in this position.
glmccuskey
4095 votes

Joined: April 2011
 
 
 
Saturday 5:54 AM
I play my position first. All out offense. I’ll lead the two and take any pegs offered. By leading the two with these middle cards you can score on a 5-6-7-8 reply.
Guest says: I'm with you today--lone rangers. If I remember correctly, this was my hand playing him in Bowler .Since he's my mentor, and he told me to hold 2-2-6-7 like everyone else voted. Luckily, it worked out cuz I won the game--again, luckily lol. S:)
Guest says: I'm with you today--lone rangers. If I remember correctly, this was my hand playing him in Bowler .Since he's my mentor, and he told me to hold 2-2-6-7 like everyone else voted. Luckily, it worked out cuz I won the game--again, luckily lol. S:)
Guest says: should read: ...told me I should hold... S
Guest says: should read: ...told me I should hold... S
cwed says: Yep, this hand was in a game versus Madame S at Bowler. Of course, she could've held anything and still have beaten me. I think I am 1-23 against her at club this year!
cwed says: Yep, this hand was in a game versus Madame S at Bowler. Of course, she could've held anything and still have beaten me. I think I am 1-23 against her at club this year!
Hillchem says: I’m on the offensive today as well. If I can move 10-14 pegs, I don’t really care where pone ends up.
Hillchem says: I’m on the offensive today as well. If I can move 10-14 pegs, I don’t really care where pone ends up.
Guest says: lol cwed! At least the one you've gotten off of me started your grand slam since you were still mad at me lol. If it makes you feel any better, remember that I gave you a grand slam in game 9 when I first started playing, which also gave me only string of pearls, ever! S :)
Guest says: lol cwed! At least the one you've gotten off of me started your grand slam since you were still mad at me lol. If it makes you feel any better, remember that I gave you a grand slam in game 9 when I first started playing, which also gave me only string of pearls, ever! S :)
cwed says: Madame S: I had forgotten about that very early slam/string symmetry. Oh, for the good ole days. . . .
cwed says: Madame S: I had forgotten about that very early slam/string symmetry. Oh, for the good ole days. . . .
cwed
1355 votes

Joined: October 2014
 
 
 
Saturday 6:34 AM
The basic choices are toss 2-3 or 3-8. (Why can't it be my crib whenever I get hands like this?!) As I've stated before: I hate playing defense, but I have to do so in this position, so I decided to give up one point and hold 2-2-6-7. With a terrible cut, I will take any pegging points offered. Thus, the 2 is a good lead: if paired, I'll take the trips; if the dealer responds with an X-card, I'll play the 7 next, hoping for yet a second X-card from the dealer so I get 31-2.
Ras2829 says: Hi cwed: Strong puzzle. Keep 'em coming!
Jazzselke
2583 votes

Joined: March 2009
 
 
 
Saturday 8:09 AM
Another way to analyze this dilemma is that by holding either 2267 or 2678, we are looking for similar vards
Jazzselke
2583 votes

Joined: March 2009
 
 
 
Saturday 8:19 AM
..cards to be cut. With the 2267, a 2, 6, 7 or 8 still gives us 11 or 12. A 5 will actually yield 11 instead of 10. Yes, an ace shuts us out, and adds 2 to 2678. And a 9 would be 8 with 2267 and 10 with 2678. But I think we can afford the downside of foregoing the possibility of the cuts for up to 14 or 16 points with 2678 to avoid the risk of 23 and letting our opponent back in the game.
mrob2199
1429 votes

Joined: February 2009
 
 
 
Saturday 8:29 AM
Well explained Dan-you are looking at the same cuts helping your hand with either discard,so no reason to risk the 2-3 toss there
Guest says: I thought of that, too...so many options. (Buth then I remembered who I was playing hahahaha.) S :)
dgergens
938 votes

Joined: January 2018
 
 
 
Saturday 12:56 PM
Have a great weekend to all.
Ras2829
5147 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 2:56 PM
Went with majority today and held six points. My second choice would be 2-2-3-8. Errands have stacked up. More later.
Ras2829 says: it's off., off., off for me with just a bit of caution. Will lead a deuce.
Coeurdelion
5589 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Saturday 3:56 PM
I think it's between 2-6-7-8 (2-3) or 3-6-7-8 (2-2) or perhaps a more Defensive 2-2-6-7 (3-8):

2-6-7-8: 7pts - 7½pts (Schell: 7.33) = -½pt

3-6-7-8: 5pts - 6½pts (Schell: 6.38) = -1½pts

2-2-6-7: 6pts - 5pts (Schell: 5.05) = +1pt

Potential:

2-6-7-8: Improves with AAAA, 22, 5555, 666, 777, 888, 9999 = 23 cuts = 23/46 = 50.0% up to 10/11/14/16pts with 22, 5555, 666, 777, 888, 9999 = 19 cuts.

3-6-7-8: Improves with AAAA, 22, 333, 4444, 5555, 666, 777, 888, 9999 = 30 cuts = 30/46 = 65.2% up to 8/12pts with 5555, 666, 777, 888, 9999 = 17 cuts.

2-2-6-7: Improves with 22, 5555, 666, 777, 888, 9999 = 19 cuts = 19/46 = 41.3% up to 11/12pts with 22, 5555, 666, 777, 888 = 15 cuts.

Position:

Dealer is in positional hole +2pts and we are on target to reach 70pts with the average 10 points. So I'll play Offense but a little cautiously.

Pegging:

All three hands will peg well but I think 2-2-6-7 with a 3 card magic eleven will peg best.

Summary:

2-2-6-7 starts with the most by 1½/2½pts but it has the fewest cuts for improvement but it still has 15 cuts for 11/12pts. Plus it will peg very well. So I'll throw the more cautious 3-8.
HalscribCLX
5312 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 4:08 PM
At 60-46* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs__Crib___Total___W4 %____W5 %
2-2-6-7___8.15+1.20+(-4.30)=5.05____14.3____50.6
2-2-3-8___7.96+2.20+(-5.50)=4.66____15.8____53.2
2-6-7-8___9.67+1.28+(-7.25)=3.40____18.1____55.7

Offense______L4 %____L5 %
2-2-6-7______0.8_____7.8
2-2-3-8______1.4_____8.7
2-6-7-8______1.6_____9.6

2-2-6-7 is best for expected averages by 0.39pt and although it's not best for Win %s it is lowest for Loss 5s. So I'll select 3-8 to discard.

After the K cut I'll lead a 2 and play Offense:

Lead_____________Our Pegging Pts.
2______________________1.25
7______________________1.18
6______________________1.10