April 23, 2019

*** This hand was suggested by dan the man on ecribbage.com
108-93*  ?
57%
12%
11%
8%
3%
2%
1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 206
dec
6356 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Tuesday 3:12 AM
First. Straight game out cuts,seven. Ten to twelve points, sixteen. That is half the deck to improve hand on. Where I hedged it a lil was the discard doing the eight-five instead of ten-five if they do x-five combinations on the discard and get one of those 5-6-7-J cuts I might survive to be able to peg out or even possibly go out still this hand. Now I lead the eight of diamonds and they will play on. dec
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Tuesday 4:30 AM
Agree with dec with all his comments. Will check to see if tossing 5-T might be better than 5-8 with a little math.
Rosemarie44 says: tossing the 5-T is a little riskier but all things equal except 11 cuts increase hand to 10 pts. (555, 6666, JJJJ; Four cuts increase to 14 points (7777). Tossing 5-8, eight cuts increase to 10 points (6666, JJJJ; seven cuts increase to 12 points (555, 7777)
Rosemarie44 says: I should include that with each toss there is still 7 additional cuts that increase each hand to 15 or 16 points. (88, 999, TT). (TT, 88, 999)
Guest says: Man on first and the bunt signal is on
james500
3921 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Tuesday 4:49 AM
No need for anything risky with Dealer back at 93.

I'll lead my 10 on the basis that I know where a second 10 plus a 5 are.

Three hearts in hand, so have the option to fake a flush if the opportunity arises.

Happy St George's day to you all.
Andy (muesli64)
2223 votes

Joined: August 2009
 
 
 
Tuesday 5:17 AM
Yes, go with the flow.
mfetchCT425
1397 votes

Joined: February 2009
 
 
 
Tuesday 5:38 AM
With the end in sight, like to be aggressive. Will lead the 8 and look to peg anyway I can. If we don’t peg enough to go out after count of hand, we should have a good chance to peg out as dealer next round.
JRCeagle78
1054 votes

Joined: June 2016
 
 
 
Tuesday 7:12 AM
At this point of the game, you need to keep as many points as possible. The double run is the only way to do it. The dealer may be far enough back to chance the 5-T discard but DO NOT risk it.

There are some players who may retain the 5, but at this point of the game the 5 is just another card. If you keep the 5 the dealer has a great chance of getting points off of it any way. Toss the 5-8 into his crib and you could conceivably peg out without the 5 coming into play.
horus93
1281 votes

Joined: December 2017
 
 
 
Tuesday 7:59 AM
I don't want to keep the double run. The chance of getting a bunk cut and the 5 toss pushing oppon into the kill zone next hand is too high IMO.
Jazzselke
2585 votes

Joined: March 2009
 
 
 
Tuesday 8:45 AM
Close enough to go for it, should be another deal for us to peg out next hand as mentioned.
Guest says: I am not sure about that. Dealing from 93 is not an automatic win. There is nothing wrong with a 5-8 throw, but you do have to stop your opponent from getting in dealing/scoring position. I ould also consider very strongly throwing -8-10
Ras2829
5152 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Tuesday 9:32 AM
With my need of 13 points to win, a dealer of mediocre-excellent understanding of board position will not touch an 8 lead, either to pair or 15-2. The exception would be if dealer held only middle cards. Don't like the 5 spot with anything over there. The 5-8 to opponent crib scores 8-11 27.399%. The 5-8 does score 12 or more very infrequently with only 1.799% at that level. Need to get as close as possible knowing that I have 10 points. Since dealer likely took the two points for the Jack, dealer needs only average pegs, hand and crib scores to win on this deal. More later.
horus93 says: If I was dealer here I'd almost certainly be playing offense and hoping the other guy was holding crap. With a really good run of luck the score next hand could be something like 108-115* and I'd stand a fighting chance of winning. Chance of winning this way would be very low but chance of winning by being extremely defensive would be even lower.
Ras2829 says: Since discarded a five, hold two tens, will lead the 10H. That leaves me three cards in sequence. Provides nearly as much offensive pegging punch as does leading the 8 which only leaves me two ranks (9/10). Only way dealer is going to touch my lead is in the event has a small hand and doesn't know of much of a crib score after seeing the Jack on the deck. It's def., def., off. for sure.
Ras2829 says: HalscribCLX has posted and shows the lead of the 10 at just .08 hundredths less than the lead of the 8. In my view that's close enough to justify retaining 3 cards in sequence after the opening lead.
Ras2829 says: Oh and that cribbot might know that the best hope is to hold that big pair, calculating that dealer has small cards since n/d had none. Could it be that we are more likely to score the 3 needed pegs with that pair and a go than to score a run with cards of sequence? All of that probably doesn't matter with dealer at 93 points. You can play it any old way you want.
Ras2829 says: If dealer were at 103, this would be a much better puzzle. Sorry that was what I had written on my scratch pad - so my opening comments were confusing am sure. Sorry about that. Very high chance n/d of this hand will win this game on this or the next deal.
dgergens says: Regarding last comment, that's how I felt when discarding. But after J cut, n/d this hand is virtually guaranteed to win next hand,(if they don't lose this hand) would you agree?
Ras2829 says: Hi dgergens: Right on! If don't get out this hand will on the next. Got to be near 100% chance!
Gougie00
5728 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Tuesday 11:20 AM
Sort of got to at this position. There may not be another deal. Lead the 8 and coax 3 pegs somewhere.
dgergens
938 votes

Joined: January 2018
 
 
 
Tuesday 11:47 AM
I always hold my breath when I push 'On to the results' because I'm never sure if I'll be the moron today or get it right. Oh happy day. My thought was to be close enough to peg out next hand since they'll be close enough to win next round. But that cut should end it this game.
Gougie00 says: I'm usually the other moron of the day. I usually keep whatever hand is worth the most points and that usually results in a win.
Coeurdelion
5593 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Tuesday 3:04 PM
Other possibilities but I don't think 8-9, 8-10, 8-8 or 5-10 will compare to the 5-8 discard. So I'll keep 8-9-10-10.
HalscribCLX
5316 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Tuesday 3:08 PM
At 108-93* playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

__________________Dlr's
Defense____Hand___Pegs___Crib___Total___W1 %____W2 %
8-9-10-10__9.72+(-2.96)+(-6.11)=0.65____36.4____83.4
5-8-10-10__8.00+(-2.65)+(-4.90)=0.45____20.8____79.7
5-8-9-10*__7.50+(-3.07)+(-4.26)=0.17____15.2____81.1
5-9-10-10__8.35+(-2.61)+(-6.01)=(-0.27)_27.5____77.9
8-8-9-10H__9.67+(-2.85)+(-7.45)=(-0.68)_33.9____78.8

Defense________L1 %____L2 %
8-9-10-10______1.7_____15.5
5-8-10-10______2.6_____18.4
5-8-9-10*______1.2_____17.7
5-9-10-10______3.9_____19.7
8-8-9-10H______3.6_____19.2

* Unsuited 8-10

8-9-10-10 is best for expected averages by 0.20pt and is also best for Win %s and Loss %s which take account of the board position. So I'll select a 5-8 to discard.

After the J cut I'll lead the 8 and play Offense:

Lead___________Our Pegging Pts.
8___________________1.34
10__________________1.26
9___________________1.13