April 22, 2019
39% | |||||
33% | |||||
25% | |||||
1% | |||||
Total votes: 162 |
dec 6327 votes Joined: April 2008 |
    Monday 3:04 AM
Balk the best. Thirteen or less for opponent the goal here. Crib's lookin weak now, four lead... off...off.off... dec |
Rosemarie44 2051 votes Joined: March 2016 |
    Monday 4:08 AM
I chose expected averages and see I am in the minority. This hand starts at 5 points and increases to a maximum of 12 points. The hand does have slightly less fewer cuts but for a higher maximum then tossing 9-Q. |
james500 3895 votes Joined: June 2013 |
    Monday 4:46 AM
Hope to avoid the cut of an X, and the odds are in my favour. There's only 16 of them, so the remaining 30 cards must be something else.
4 lead. james500 says: Oops. With the location of Qd known, only 15 X's left, so 31 cards that aren't. |
glmccuskey 4075 votes Joined: April 2011 |
    Monday 4:49 AM
I’ll lead the four and take safe pegs only. |
Gougie00 5702 votes Joined: March 2008 |
    Monday 4:49 AM
I guessed wrong. Lead the 8 and peg |
zeke76 1367 votes Joined: August 2018 |
    Monday 5:03 AM
I think is is slightly better on average score than Q9, though not quite as defensive. We are talking very small differs though. |
mfetchCT425 1382 votes Joined: February 2009 |
    Monday 6:02 AM
I think the primary goal here is to hold opponent back. Will toss the highly defensive 9-Q. We want to try and win this game on the next two deals. Will lead the 4 and will take any “safe” pegs where I can. |
wasa 2991 votes Joined: November 2014 |
    Monday 6:34 AM
My goal is to stick around long enough to count my own crib. Toss the safer 9-Q to balk opponent's crib. |
Andy (muesli64) 2221 votes Joined: August 2009 |
    Monday 6:45 AM
Grim! Get some pleasure putting 9 - Q into crib! |
Jazzselke 2569 votes Joined: March 2009 |
    Monday 7:24 AM
No chance unless opponent gets below average next 3 counts. |
dgergens 938 votes Joined: January 2018 |
    Monday 8:04 AM
I think I need a double run more than I need to through a defensive 9. I wasn't sure, Q,4 or Q,3. Looks like everyone knows something I don't, unless it's just because 4 is even. Ras2829 says: Hi dgergens: the 4 with a X-pointer has lower average than the trey when tossed to opponent. Conversely the averages are different and much lower to own crib as most frequent small card discarded by opponent is the Ace. The trey is the key connector among the A-4 ranks. So avoid giving it to opponent as it is often the one card needed. The trey acts like the 7 to middle cards, and the Jack to X-pointers. Of course the five is the key among the keys as it connects with A-9, 2-8, 3-7, 4-6, 6-7,and all those X-pointers. If you or others would like to know more about the key connectors, E-mail raswino29@outlook.com. |
horus93 1272 votes Joined: December 2017 |
    Monday 8:13 AM
We can't be too defensive here. Opponent is just ahead of par but we need 8 points to be on par ourselves. Only question for me was which was safer, 4-Q or 3-Q. This site has taught me that 4-Q is probably safer so that's what I did.
We have no chance if opponent doesn't underscore but we also have virtually no chance if we don't move down the board ourselves, IMO. |
joekayak 1873 votes Joined: May 2016 |
    Monday 9:10 AM
Must limit opponent. Must throw Q-9, according to several charts, Q-9 is third best throw to opponents crib. Lead the 4. DEF DEF. Probably not win the game but I'll go down trying. |
Coeurdelion 5574 votes Joined: October 2007 |
    Monday 3:51 PM
It's between 4-7-8-9 (3-Q), 3-7-8-9 (4-Q) and 3-4-7-8 (9-Q):
4-7-8-9: 5pts - 4½pts (Schell: 4.59) = +½pt 3-7-8-9: 5pts - 4½pts (Schell: 4.46) = +½pt 3-4-7-8: 4pts - 4pts (Schell: 4.11) = 0pt Potential: 4-7-8-9: Improves with 2222, 333, 444, 6666, 777, 888, 999, 10101010 = 27 cuts = 27/46 = 58.7% up to 8/9/10/12pts with 444, 6666, 777, 888, 999 = 16 cuts. 3-7-8-9: Improves with 333, 444, 5555, 6666, 777, 888, 999, 10101010 = 27 cuts = 27/46 = 58.7% up to 8/9/10/12pts with 333, 6666, 777, 888, 999 = 16 cuts. 3-4-7-8: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 333, 444, 5555, 6666, 777, 888, 9999 = 32 cuts = 32/46 = 69.6% up to 7/8/9/10pts with 2222, 333, 444, 5555, 6666, 777, 888, 9999 = 28 cuts. Position: Dealer is 1pt past positional hole and we're well short. So I'll play Defense and try to get as far past 96pts as possible but safely. Pegging: I think 3-4-7-8 will peg best. Summary: 3-4-7-8 has a ½pt lower starting value than the other two but it has more cuts for improvement and 28 cuts for 7-10pts. The other two hands have more cuts for a better maximum at 12pts but as 3-4-7-8 should also peg better I'll throw the excellent balker 9-Q. Guest says: Coeurdelion: Your cards and analysis don't match up. Cards show 3-7-8-9. Rosemarie44 |
HalscribCLX 5297 votes Joined: February 2008 |
    Monday 3:54 PM
At 88-97* playing a Safe strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:
________________Dlr's Defense___Hand__Pegs____Crib____Total_____W1 %___W2 % 3-7-8-9___7.15+(-2.76)+(-4.55)=(-0.16)____0.0____4.2 4-7-8-9___7.15+(-2.70)+(-4.71)=(-0.26)____0.0____4.1 3-4-7-8___6.63+(-2.87)+(-4.20)=(-0.44)____0.0____3.6 Defense________L1 %___L2 % 3-7-8-9________4.7____53.2 4-7-8-9________5.3____55.2 3-4-7-8________4.0____52.2 3-7-8-9 is best for expected averages by 0.10pt and is very slightly better than 4-7-8-9 and slight better than 3-4-7-8 for Win %s. 3-4-7-8 is slightly lower for Loss 5s because of the safe 9-Q. Even so I'll select 4-Q to discard. After the 2 cut I'll lead the 3 and play Defense: Lead__________Dealer's Pegging Pts. 3____________________(-2.20) 8____________________(-2.22) 7____________________(-2.27) 9____________________(-2.50) |
Ras2829 5125 votes Joined: November 2008 |
    Monday 5:32 PM
Since dealer is already comfortable in 4th street CPZ (95-99)and I need 7 points to reach that for the upcoming deal, will regain five points and discard 4-Q. Will lead the trey and play off dealer responses if possible. If dealer response is 7 or 8 will pair. If dealer response is a 9 on my trey lead, will play the 7 for count of 19. If dealer were hole 92-94 would have discarded the low-scoring 9-Q. |