April 22, 2019

*** This hand was suggested by james500
88-97*  ?
39%
33%
25%
1%
Total votes: 162
dec
6327 votes

Joined: April 2008

 
 
 
Monday 3:04 AM
Balk the best. Thirteen or less for opponent the goal here. Crib's lookin weak now, four lead... off...off.off... dec
Rosemarie44
2051 votes

Joined: March 2016

 
 
 
Monday 4:08 AM
I chose expected averages and see I am in the minority. This hand starts at 5 points and increases to a maximum of 12 points. The hand does have slightly less fewer cuts but for a higher maximum then tossing 9-Q.
james500
3895 votes

Joined: June 2013

 
 
 
Monday 4:46 AM
Hope to avoid the cut of an X, and the odds are in my favour. There's only 16 of them, so the remaining 30 cards must be something else.

4 lead.
james500 says: Oops. With the location of Qd known, only 15 X's left, so 31 cards that aren't.
glmccuskey
4075 votes

Joined: April 2011

 
 
 
Monday 4:49 AM
I’ll lead the four and take safe pegs only.
Gougie00
5702 votes

Joined: March 2008

 
 
 
Monday 4:49 AM
I guessed wrong. Lead the 8 and peg
zeke76
1367 votes

Joined: August 2018

 
 
 
Monday 5:03 AM
I think is is slightly better on average score than Q9, though not quite as defensive. We are talking very small differs though.
mfetchCT425
1382 votes

Joined: February 2009

 
 
 
Monday 6:02 AM
I think the primary goal here is to hold opponent back. Will toss the highly defensive 9-Q. We want to try and win this game on the next two deals. Will lead the 4 and will take any “safe” pegs where I can.
wasa
2991 votes

Joined: November 2014

 
 
 
Monday 6:34 AM
My goal is to stick around long enough to count my own crib. Toss the safer 9-Q to balk opponent's crib.
Andy (muesli64)
2221 votes

Joined: August 2009

 
 
 
Monday 6:45 AM
Grim! Get some pleasure putting 9 - Q into crib!
Jazzselke
2569 votes

Joined: March 2009

 
 
 
Monday 7:24 AM
No chance unless opponent gets below average next 3 counts.
dgergens
938 votes

Joined: January 2018

 
 
 
Monday 8:04 AM
I think I need a double run more than I need to through a defensive 9. I wasn't sure, Q,4 or Q,3. Looks like everyone knows something I don't, unless it's just because 4 is even.
Ras2829 says: Hi dgergens: the 4 with a X-pointer has lower average than the trey when tossed to opponent. Conversely the averages are different and much lower to own crib as most frequent small card discarded by opponent is the Ace. The trey is the key connector among the A-4 ranks. So avoid giving it to opponent as it is often the one card needed. The trey acts like the 7 to middle cards, and the Jack to X-pointers. Of course the five is the key among the keys as it connects with A-9, 2-8, 3-7, 4-6, 6-7,and all those X-pointers. If you or others would like to know more about the key connectors, E-mail raswino29@outlook.com.
horus93
1272 votes

Joined: December 2017

 
 
 
Monday 8:13 AM
We can't be too defensive here. Opponent is just ahead of par but we need 8 points to be on par ourselves. Only question for me was which was safer, 4-Q or 3-Q. This site has taught me that 4-Q is probably safer so that's what I did.

We have no chance if opponent doesn't underscore but we also have virtually no chance if we don't move down the board ourselves, IMO.
joekayak
1873 votes

Joined: May 2016

 
 
 
Monday 9:10 AM
Must limit opponent. Must throw Q-9, according to several charts, Q-9 is third best throw to opponents crib. Lead the 4. DEF DEF. Probably not win the game but I'll go down trying.
Coeurdelion
5574 votes

Joined: October 2007

 
 
 
Monday 3:51 PM
It's between 4-7-8-9 (3-Q), 3-7-8-9 (4-Q) and 3-4-7-8 (9-Q):

4-7-8-9: 5pts - 4½pts (Schell: 4.59) = +½pt

3-7-8-9: 5pts - 4½pts (Schell: 4.46) = +½pt

3-4-7-8: 4pts - 4pts (Schell: 4.11) = 0pt

Potential:

4-7-8-9: Improves with 2222, 333, 444, 6666, 777, 888, 999, 10101010 = 27 cuts = 27/46 = 58.7% up to 8/9/10/12pts with 444, 6666, 777, 888, 999 = 16 cuts.

3-7-8-9: Improves with 333, 444, 5555, 6666, 777, 888, 999, 10101010 = 27 cuts = 27/46 = 58.7% up to 8/9/10/12pts with 333, 6666, 777, 888, 999 = 16 cuts.

3-4-7-8: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 333, 444, 5555, 6666, 777, 888, 9999 = 32 cuts = 32/46 = 69.6% up to 7/8/9/10pts with 2222, 333, 444, 5555, 6666, 777, 888, 9999 = 28 cuts.

Position:

Dealer is 1pt past positional hole and we're well short. So I'll play Defense and try to get as far past 96pts as possible but safely.

Pegging:

I think 3-4-7-8 will peg best.

Summary:

3-4-7-8 has a ½pt lower starting value than the other two but it has more cuts for improvement and 28 cuts for 7-10pts. The other two hands have more cuts for a better maximum at 12pts but as 3-4-7-8 should also peg better I'll throw the excellent balker 9-Q.
Guest says: Coeurdelion: Your cards and analysis don't match up. Cards show 3-7-8-9. Rosemarie44
HalscribCLX
5297 votes

Joined: February 2008

 
 
 
Monday 3:54 PM
At 88-97* playing a Safe strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Dlr's
Defense___Hand__Pegs____Crib____Total_____W1 %___W2 %
3-7-8-9___7.15+(-2.76)+(-4.55)=(-0.16)____0.0____4.2
4-7-8-9___7.15+(-2.70)+(-4.71)=(-0.26)____0.0____4.1
3-4-7-8___6.63+(-2.87)+(-4.20)=(-0.44)____0.0____3.6

Defense________L1 %___L2 %
3-7-8-9________4.7____53.2
4-7-8-9________5.3____55.2
3-4-7-8________4.0____52.2

3-7-8-9 is best for expected averages by 0.10pt and is very slightly better than 4-7-8-9 and slight better than 3-4-7-8 for Win %s. 3-4-7-8 is slightly lower for Loss 5s because of the safe 9-Q. Even so I'll select 4-Q to discard.

After the 2 cut I'll lead the 3 and play Defense:

Lead__________Dealer's Pegging Pts.
3____________________(-2.20)
8____________________(-2.22)
7____________________(-2.27)
9____________________(-2.50)
Ras2829
5125 votes

Joined: November 2008

 
 
 
Monday 5:32 PM
Since dealer is already comfortable in 4th street CPZ (95-99)and I need 7 points to reach that for the upcoming deal, will regain five points and discard 4-Q. Will lead the trey and play off dealer responses if possible. If dealer response is 7 or 8 will pair. If dealer response is a 9 on my trey lead, will play the 7 for count of 19. If dealer were hole 92-94 would have discarded the low-scoring 9-Q.