Saturday 3:09 AM

Not going to score twenty points with 5-6-7-8, so won't risk the 10-J. Discard defensively with either 10-6 or J-8, and try to slow my opponent down.

   

Saturday 3:25 AM

Playing the percentages here. Tow the line here with defense and look forward to our deal next. dec

   

Saturday 4:37 AM

I unlike others this morning have kept the 4 card run. I'll find out if I'm too risky with my decision to toss T-J to opponent.

   

Saturday 5:07 AM

At -11/+7 holding good cards early in the game I'll risk the T-J. If dealer was a bit further back I'd lean towards defense and toss 8-J.

What to lead? We have 8 points, the cut doesn't help the crib and this hand is often good to pick up a few so I'd play on and lead the 8.

   

Saturday 5:21 AM

Looks like I didn't fair well dealing from 42, so I'm going for defensive toss.

   

Saturday 6:14 AM

another hedge. Lousy starter. Lead the 7 and play off?

   

Saturday 7:11 AM

Yes, 10-J best. See all comments above.

   

Saturday 8:04 AM

Kept the run. It’s still early.

   

Saturday 10:04 AM

def def

   

Saturday 2:20 PM

I think its between 5-6-7-8 (10-J) and 5-6-7-10 (8-J):

5-6-7-8: 6pts - 4½pts (Schell: 4.61) = +1½pts

5-6-7-10: 5pts - 4½pts (Schell: 4.59) = +½pt

Potential:

5-6-7-8: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 3333, 4444, 555, 666, 777, 888, 9999 + 14xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 9/10/12/14pts with 2222, 4444, 555, 666, 777, 888, 9999 = 24 cuts.

5-6-7-10: Improves with 2222, 3333, 4444, 555, 666, 777, 888, 9999 + 14xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 8/10/12pts with 4444, 555, 666, 777, 888, 101010 = 19 cuts.

Position:

We're well behind where we need to be (60pts) so I'll have to play Offense.

Pegging.

I think, playing Offense, 5-6-7-8 will peg better.

Summary:

5-6-7-8 starts with 1pt more, has more cuts for improvement and more cuts for a good hand with a better maximum. It also should peg better. So I'll throw 10-J.

   

Saturday 2:53 PM

At 49-51* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs__Crib___Total___W5 %____W6 %
5-6-7-8___9.65+1.37+(-5.62)=5.40____19.1____20.0
5-6-7-10__7.83+1.72+(-4.24)=5.31____15.1____20.3

Offense______L5 %____L6 %
5-6-7-8______38.8____60.1
5-6-7-10_____33.0____58.5

5-6-7-8 is better for expected averages bu 0.09pt and is also appreciably better for Win %s. 5-6-7-10 is much lower for Loss %s as the 8-J is safer but even so I'll select 10-J to discard.

After the A cut I'll lead the 7 and play Offense:

Lead_______Our Pegging Pts.
7_______________1.62
8_______________1.60
5_______________1.42
6_______________1.33

   

Saturday 9:18 PM

With dealer already at hole 51, it's off., off., off for sure. Got to move on down the board. RAS will lead the 8 choosing an offense pegging strategy as that leaves me three cards in sequence. Will take any pegs offered. Would lead the 7 if playing defense. Note HalscribCLX analysis above which shows .02 (hundredths) difference in value of the 7-8 lead. Our chances to win this game are very slim no matter how we play. My scant empirical data suggests a win at a rate of 1/6; so will likely be playing offense for the remainder of this game.