April 12, 2019

*** This hand was suggested by Inushtuk1
93-97*  ?
43%
36%
7%
3%
3%
3%
1%
1%
0%
Total votes: 188

Play this scenario out against a robot designed by Hal Mueller for eCribbage.com

james500
2191 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Friday 3:06 AM
- Can't risk 8-9 with Dealer where they are, need a safer discard.
- A little negative delta maybe, with a second 4 and a 6 known to be out of circulation?
- Every cut helps me.
- Maybe 31/2 with the 4-A-6 eleven?
dec
4531 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Friday 3:10 AM
It matter what they get here more,the dicard, the lead card and chances to add points to the hand. Numbers will be added in by other commenters I am sure. Four lead. dec
Andy (muesli64)
1545 votes

Joined: August 2009

   
Friday 3:12 AM
Given the position.I prefer to take a chance and throw 8-9. If I go for the safer option A-8 I am really banking on just a 5 cut.
Rosemarie44
1276 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Friday 3:39 AM
I think we need to risk tossing 8-9 for the hand with the most cuts for improvement than keeping the alternative and safer A-8.
zeke76
290 votes

Joined: August 2018

   
Friday 4:25 AM
A-8. Thinking defense.
joekayak
799 votes

Joined: May 2016

   
Friday 4:53 AM
My mental cribbage computer robot says "Must do all to minimize dealer crib." This is best throw to dealer crib. Just outside the top 20 out of 91 possible throws. Plus the A-4-6 combo for non-dealer can be one of the most productive for us whilw minimizing dealer pegs. Lead the Ace.
horus93
468 votes

Joined: December 2017

   
Friday 7:51 AM
I screwed up today thinking 4-4-6-9 didn't have enough cuts for improvement (silly line of thought considering it starts with 4 as opposed to this keep's 2). I think toss A-8 is actually best now and I wouldn't risk 8-9.
dgergens
375 votes

Joined: January 2018

   
Friday 8:25 AM
I've just been burned too many times to toss the 8,9.
Ras2829
3423 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Friday 12:35 PM
Holding four points seems preferable to holding two points at hole 93. I'll forgo the better potential hand score in holding 1-4-4-6 and opt for the safer A-8 discard. Will lead a four, and avoid the triple if dealer pairs. Would like to drop the 6 as second card played to put some space between my remaining two cards. Yes it's def. def., def. as minimizing dealer movement down the board is the best thing I can do on this deal.
Coeurdelion
3885 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Friday 3:19 PM
I think its between A-4-4-6 (8-9) and 4-4-6-9 (A-8):

A-4-4-6: 4pts - 4¾pts (Schell: 4.72) = -¾pt

4-4-6-9: 4pts - 3¾pts (Schell: 3.80) = +¼pt

Potential:

A-4-4-6: Improves with AAA, 44, 5555, 666, 7777, 888, 999 + 16xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 8/12/14pts with AAA, 44, 5555, 666 + 16xXs = 28 cuts.

4-4-6-9: Improves with AAA, 2222, 44, 5555, 666, 7777, 999 = 23 cuts = 23/46 = 50.0% up to 8/14pts with 2222, 44, 5555, 666, 999 = 16 cuts.

Position:

We only need 3pts to get into position but Pone is already 1pt past the positional hole so I'll play defense to keep them short.

Pegging:

I think A-4-4-6 will peg better with lower cards and a 3-card magic eleven.

Summary:

4-4-6-9 is 1pt better for starting value but A-4-4-6 has many more cuts for improvement and 28 cuts for 8-14pts. Also it should peg better so I'll throw the 8-9.
Coeurdelion
3885 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Friday 3:47 PM
Oops! Done it again 8-( Above uses Own crib expected averages. Opponent's expected averages are below. Doesn't change my choice though.

I think its between A-4-4-6 (8-9) and 4-4-6-9 (A-8):

A-4-4-6: 4pts - 5¾pts (Schell: 5.83) = -1¾pts

4-4-6-9: 4pts - 4¾pts (Schell: 4.85) = -¾pt

Potential:

A-4-4-6: Improves with AAA, 44, 5555, 666, 7777, 888, 999 + 16xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 8/12/14pts with AAA, 44, 5555, 666 + 16xXs = 28 cuts.

4-4-6-9: Improves with AAA, 2222, 44, 5555, 666, 7777, 999 = 23 cuts = 23/46 = 50.0% up to 8/14pts with 2222, 44, 5555, 666, 999 = 16 cuts.

Position:

We only need 3pts to get into position but Pone is already 1pt past the positional hole so I'll play defense to keep them short.

Pegging:

I think A-4-4-6 will peg better with lower cards and a 3-card magic eleven.

Summary:

4-4-6-9 is 1pt better for starting value but A-4-4-6 has many more cuts for improvement and 28 cuts for 8-14pts. Also it should peg better so I'll throw the 8-9.
HalscribCLX
3658 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Friday 4:04 PM
At 93-97* playing a Safe strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Dlr's
Defense___Hand__Pegs____Crib____Total_____W1 %___W2 %
A-4-4-6___7.57+(-2.35)+(-5.51)=(-0.29)____0.0____14.9
4-4-6-9___6.22+(-2.43)+(-4.31)=(-0.52)____0.0____11.1

Defense_______L1 %___L2 %
A-4-4-6_______8.7____56.9
4-4-6-9_______4.1____50.2

A-4-4-6 is better for expected averages by 0.23pt and is appreciably better for Win %s. However 4-4-6-9 is very much lower for Loss %s so as I'm advocating a Safe strategy and we're at a Critical Board Position I'll select A-8 to discard.

After the 3 cut I'll lead the 4H and play Defense;

Lead___________Dealer's Pegging Pts.
4_____________________(-1.94)
9_____________________(-2.30)
6_____________________(-2.31)

LoneStarPegger
664 votes

Joined: January 2008

   
Friday 8:23 PM
D Fence