April 12, 2019

*** This hand was suggested by Inushtuk1
93-97*  ?
43%
36%
7%
3%
3%
3%
1%
1%
0%
Total votes: 188
james500
3923 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Friday 3:06 AM
- Can't risk 8-9 with Dealer where they are, need a safer discard.
- A little negative delta maybe, with a second 4 and a 6 known to be out of circulation?
- Every cut helps me.
- Maybe 31/2 with the 4-A-6 eleven?
Ras2829 says: Like your thinking here as to the spread of the cards and the 3-card 11. I opted to hold 4-4-6-9 though you might have the better choice, though only two points as a starter. Will defer to HalscribCLX on those points.
dec
6358 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Friday 3:10 AM
It matter what they get here more,the dicard, the lead card and chances to add points to the hand. Numbers will be added in by other commenters I am sure. Four lead. dec
Andy (muesli64)
2223 votes

Joined: August 2009
 
 
 
Friday 3:12 AM
Given the position.I prefer to take a chance and throw 8-9. If I go for the safer option A-8 I am really banking on just a 5 cut.
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Friday 3:39 AM
I think we need to risk tossing 8-9 for the hand with the most cuts for improvement than keeping the alternative and safer A-8.
zeke76
1396 votes

Joined: August 2018
 
 
 
Friday 4:25 AM
A-8. Thinking defense.
King Richard says: King Richard agrees. Defense with A-8.
zeke76 says: So finally looked at CL Brown's numbers: These are net numbers (our hand minus the crib): 8-9: 1.9 avg 12 max -18 min (dealer's crib 5.7 avg) A-8: 1.6 avg 12 max -12 min (dealer's crib 4.6 avg) 4-9: .5 avg 7 max -10 min (dealer's crib 4.5 avg). So given a defensive focus, I'm happy with my A-8 toss. Gaining over a point compared to 4-9 net with only conceding .1 to the deal in gross points. I also am willing to concede .3 net to slow the dealer by 1.1 points on average. Others may read the position on the board differently (board position is very much a weakness of mine, though this site has helped).
james500 says: Hi Zeke. Not trying to defend my own choice which may yet prove to be wrong, but I suspect that the mean averages you quote for 4-4-6-9 are inflated by the serious boost that a 5 cut brings. With a hand and crib to count, that 5 on the deck may do more harm than good with Dealer already at 97.
zeke76 says: Ah, yes that makes sense, though the 5 cut hurts us regardless is we are able to benefit from it or not. I suppose though if it hurts enough our benefit is useless and so it makes more sense to assume a 5 cut as a lost cause and work in a different direction. I have to better keep that sort of stuff in mind.
joekayak
1873 votes

Joined: May 2016
 
 
 
Friday 4:53 AM
My mental cribbage computer robot says "Must do all to minimize dealer crib." This is best throw to dealer crib. Just outside the top 20 out of 91 possible throws. Plus the A-4-6 combo for non-dealer can be one of the most productive for us whilw minimizing dealer pegs. Lead the Ace.
horus93
1281 votes

Joined: December 2017
 
 
 
Friday 7:51 AM
I screwed up today thinking 4-4-6-9 didn't have enough cuts for improvement (silly line of thought considering it starts with 4 as opposed to this keep's 2). I think toss A-8 is actually best now and I wouldn't risk 8-9.
dgergens
938 votes

Joined: January 2018
 
 
 
Friday 8:25 AM
I've just been burned too many times to toss the 8,9.
Ras2829
5154 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Friday 12:35 PM
Holding four points seems preferable to holding two points at hole 93. I'll forgo the better potential hand score in holding 1-4-4-6 and opt for the safer A-8 discard. Will lead a four, and avoid the triple if dealer pairs. Would like to drop the 6 as second card played to put some space between my remaining two cards. Yes it's def. def., def. as minimizing dealer movement down the board is the best thing I can do on this deal.
Coeurdelion
5594 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Friday 3:19 PM
I think its between A-4-4-6 (8-9) and 4-4-6-9 (A-8):

A-4-4-6: 4pts - 4¾pts (Schell: 4.72) = -¾pt

4-4-6-9: 4pts - 3¾pts (Schell: 3.80) = +¼pt

Potential:

A-4-4-6: Improves with AAA, 44, 5555, 666, 7777, 888, 999 + 16xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 8/12/14pts with AAA, 44, 5555, 666 + 16xXs = 28 cuts.

4-4-6-9: Improves with AAA, 2222, 44, 5555, 666, 7777, 999 = 23 cuts = 23/46 = 50.0% up to 8/14pts with 2222, 44, 5555, 666, 999 = 16 cuts.

Position:

We only need 3pts to get into position but Pone is already 1pt past the positional hole so I'll play defense to keep them short.

Pegging:

I think A-4-4-6 will peg better with lower cards and a 3-card magic eleven.

Summary:

4-4-6-9 is 1pt better for starting value but A-4-4-6 has many more cuts for improvement and 28 cuts for 8-14pts. Also it should peg better so I'll throw the 8-9.
Coeurdelion
5594 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Friday 3:47 PM
Oops! Done it again 8-( Above uses Own crib expected averages. Opponent's expected averages are below. Doesn't change my choice though.

I think its between A-4-4-6 (8-9) and 4-4-6-9 (A-8):

A-4-4-6: 4pts - 5¾pts (Schell: 5.83) = -1¾pts

4-4-6-9: 4pts - 4¾pts (Schell: 4.85) = -¾pt

Potential:

A-4-4-6: Improves with AAA, 44, 5555, 666, 7777, 888, 999 + 16xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 8/12/14pts with AAA, 44, 5555, 666 + 16xXs = 28 cuts.

4-4-6-9: Improves with AAA, 2222, 44, 5555, 666, 7777, 999 = 23 cuts = 23/46 = 50.0% up to 8/14pts with 2222, 44, 5555, 666, 999 = 16 cuts.

Position:

We only need 3pts to get into position but Pone is already 1pt past the positional hole so I'll play defense to keep them short.

Pegging:

I think A-4-4-6 will peg better with lower cards and a 3-card magic eleven.

Summary:

4-4-6-9 is 1pt better for starting value but A-4-4-6 has many more cuts for improvement and 28 cuts for 8-14pts. Also it should peg better so I'll throw the 8-9.
Guest says: I was with you on this one! Rosemarie44
HalscribCLX
5317 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Friday 4:04 PM
At 93-97* playing a Safe strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Dlr's
Defense___Hand__Pegs____Crib____Total_____W1 %___W2 %
A-4-4-6___7.57+(-2.35)+(-5.51)=(-0.29)____0.0____14.9
4-4-6-9___6.22+(-2.43)+(-4.31)=(-0.52)____0.0____11.1

Defense_______L1 %___L2 %
A-4-4-6_______8.7____56.9
4-4-6-9_______4.1____50.2

A-4-4-6 is better for expected averages by 0.23pt and is appreciably better for Win %s. However 4-4-6-9 is very much lower for Loss %s so as I'm advocating a Safe strategy and we're at a Critical Board Position I'll select A-8 to discard.

After the 3 cut I'll lead the 4H and play Defense;

Lead___________Dealer's Pegging Pts.
4_____________________(-1.94)
9_____________________(-2.30)
6_____________________(-2.31)

LoneStarPegger
811 votes

Joined: January 2008
 
 
 
Friday 8:23 PM
D Fence