April 11, 2019

*** This hand was suggested by james500
46*-57  ?
46%
43%
4%
2%
1%
1%
0%
Total votes: 186

Play this scenario out against a robot designed by Hal Mueller for eCribbage.com

Samgash
255 votes

Joined: November 2016

   
Thursday 3:07 AM
Let’s flush.
dec
4443 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Thursday 3:31 AM
Larger deficit I would have thrown 7-8. Here utilize flush- defensive eleven. More chances between non dealer tendencies and a cut to get a sizable crib. dec
Rosemarie44
1190 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Thursday 3:48 AM
It pays to Flush.
Andy (muesli64)
1508 votes

Joined: August 2009

   
Thursday 4:35 AM
Flush might be better on points - just. but I am behind. Prefer to be sure of opportunities in hand and crib. 4-5 might not work out? Plus better pegging by throwing 7-8.
james500
2107 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Thursday 4:54 AM
Nobody has yet chosen 3-4-7-8 (5-10), myself included. I'd be interested to hear from anybody who has an opionion on that particular way of splitting the cards though.
glmccuskey
2945 votes

Joined: April 2011

   
Thursday 4:55 AM
I’ll echo Rosemarie and what I’m sure RAS will say, “it pays to flush”.
Gougie00
3868 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Thursday 5:09 AM
Not too much enthusiasm tossing the 4-5, but it definitely has a shot to score points in the crib. I'll hold the flush as well. I hope so, I just threw away a 12 hand.
zeke76
215 votes

Joined: August 2018

   
Thursday 5:16 AM
Flushing
wasa
1194 votes

Joined: November 2014

   
Thursday 7:28 AM
Hard choice between the 4-5 and the 7-8. I went with 7-8 due to guaranteed 9 points vs the 4-5 guaranteed 8 points (hand + crib). Plus, I think the 2-3-4 will peg better. Yes, it normally pays to flush, but I think HAL will agree with me this time
horus93
392 votes

Joined: December 2017

   
Thursday 8:43 AM
The 8-3 magic 11 clinched it for me.
dgergens
310 votes

Joined: January 2018

   
Thursday 9:58 AM
4,5 in the crib is a good toss. Seems like personal predilection plays into today's decisions.
joekayak
705 votes

Joined: May 2016

   
Thursday 12:39 PM
4-5 and 7-8 have almost identical value in crib. I like starting with the guaranteed 9 points instead of 8 points. And I like keeping 3-4-5 alive for a possible double run.
JRCeagle78
644 votes

Joined: June 2016

   
Thursday 1:20 PM
I did not expect the flush to improve, but I am sure not going to complain when it does.
Coeurdelion
3818 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Thursday 5:18 PM
I think it's a straight choice between 3-4-5-10 (7-8) and 3-7-8-10 (4-5):

3-4-5-10: 5pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.53) = 11½pts

3-7-8-10: 6pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.48) = 12½pts

Potential:

3-4-5-10: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 333, 444, 555, 6666, 777, 888 + 15xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 8/9/10/12pts with 2222, 333, 444, 555, 6666, 101010 = 20 cuts.

3-7-8-10: Improves with 2222, 333, 444, 555, 6666, 777, 888, 9999, 101010 = 30 cuts = 30/46 = 65.2% up to 9/10pts with 6666, 777, 888, 9999 = 14 cuts. Plus 9 hearts for 1pt extra for the flush = 9/46 = 0.20pt

Position:

We're 2pts past positional hole and Pone is 3pts short so I'll play Defense to maintain this.

Pegging:

With 3 low cards and a high card I think 3-4-5-10 will peg better although 3-7-8-10 will be harder to read.

Summary:

3-4-5-10 starts with 1pt less than 3-7-8-10 but it has many more cuts for improvement and 20 cuts for 8-12pts. Also it should peg better so I'll throw 7-8.














HalscribCLX
3580 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Thursday 5:26 PM
At 46*-57 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Pone's
Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total____W5 %____W6 %
3-4-5-10__7.98+(-2.20)+6.63=12.41____24.9____35.7
3-7-8-10__8.15+(-2.28)+6.47=12.34____23.4____35.4
3-4-7-8___6.59+(-2.07)+6.57=11.09____20.2____32.6

Defense_______L5 %____L6 %
3-4-5-10______40.1____48.2
3-7-8-10______39.5____48.7
3-4-7-8_______39.3____51.9

3-4-5-10 is best for expected averages by only 0.07pt and is slightly best for Win %s although 3-7-8-10 is very slightly lowest for Loss %s. So I'll select the 7-8 to discard.

After the 5H cut I'll play Defense to the lead.