Sunday 3:48 AM

Beaten in the race to 69/70, but have a decent chance to wrestle the advantage away and win the race to 95/96 by playing defensively.

Two points in hand with a fair chance of a helpful cut, with an innocuous discard (although a crib flush remains a possibility).

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Sunday 3:58 AM

Such an awful hand. Tossing 6-Q, balking cards to dealer. These are usually only worth 2 points or less.

   

Sunday 4:14 AM

20 odds cards against 26 even cuts. For my piece of mind another King cut might prove the safest here. A learnin time today? Lead the two maybe finagle the Kings for three. dec

   

Sunday 5:09 AM

Lets see how smart this turns out to be. Lead the 2 and peg

   

Sunday 6:17 AM

My favourite hand!! Give dealer the worst possible combination. And take up Canasta

   

Sunday 9:44 AM

I like the Q-6 balk with dealer sitting right on par. Still, with us holding such abysmal cards, and with a good balk in the crib, I'd try to at least graph a "go" in the pegging... I think I'd lead a K.

   

Sunday 1:52 PM

I'm with balking. Like the Q-6 barely over the Q-8.

   

Sunday 2:29 PM

Need one point to enter 3rd street CPZ (69-73) for the upcoming deal. Since opponent is there to deal, it's def., def., def. for me. If holding two points , 6-Q has the lowest average to opponent crib. Of course 6-K has a lower average though not willing to play zero points here. The 6-Q average is 4.142 (1,320) 5/91 as compared to the 8-Q at 4.300 (2,146) 12/91. The major difference between the two choices is that 6-Q scores 2 or fewer points 40% of the time while 8-Q does so 36.812%. They look much the same for cribs of 8 points or more and those that reach 12 or more. Will lead the deuce (most defensive choice possible and rids my hand of that single small card that often gets hung up with other small cards late in a pegging sequence.

   

Sunday 4:44 PM

We have a poor hand. The best we can do is hold the 2pts and throw a low scoring discard. I think its between 6-Q, 2-Q and 2-8:

2-8-K-K: 2pts - 4¼pts (Schell: 4.22) = -2¼pts

6-8-K-K: 2pts - 4½pts (Schell: 4.56) = -2½pts

6-Q-K-K: 2pts - 5pts (Schell: 4.94) = -3pts

Potential:

2-8-K-K: Improves with 222, 3333, 5555, 7777, 888, KK = 20 cuts = 20/46 = 43.5% up to 6/8pts with 3333, 5555, KK = 10 cuts.

6-8-K-K: Improves with AAAA, 5555, 666, 7777, 888, 9999, KK = 24 cuts = 24/46 = 52.2% up to 6/7pts with 5555, 7777, KK = 10 cuts.

6-Q-K-K: Improves with 5555, 666, 9999, JJJJ, QQQ, KK = 20 cuts = 20/46 = 43.5% up to 6/8pts with 5555, JJJJ, KK = 10 cuts.

Position:

Dealer is in position but we only need 2pts to reach positional hole so I'll play Defense to hold Dealer back.

Pegging:

2-8-K-K should peg slightly better.

Summary:

2-8-K-K has the best starting value by ¼ptand although it doesn't have as many cuts for improvement as 6-8-K-K it has a better maximum at 8pts. So I'll throw the 6-Q.

   

Sunday 4:45 PM

At 68-70* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs__Crib___Total___W4 %____W5 %
2-8-K-K___3.48+1.20+(-4.25)=0.43____21.4____34.3
2-6-K-K___3.48+1.26+(-4.40)=0.34____24.1____35.5
6-8-K-K___3.57+1.30+(-4.63)=0.24____25.5____35.4
6-Q-K-K___3.65+1.30+(-4.94)=0.01____24.5____34.3

Offense______L4 %____L5 %
2-8-K-K______42.7____52.7
2-6-K-K______43.3____51.1
6-8-K-K______45.2____51.2
6-Q-K-K______45.6____52.6

2-8-K-K is best for expected averages by 0.09pt and is best for Loss %s. It isn't best for Win %s but because of the other two factors I'll select 6-Q to discard.

After the A cut I'll lead the 2 and play Defense:

Lead_______Dealer's Pegging Pts.
2_________________(-2.19)
K_________________(-2.42)
8_________________(-2.74)