March 24, 2019
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Total votes: 156 |
james500 3915 votes Joined: June 2013 |
    Sunday 3:48 AM
Beaten in the race to 69/70, but have a decent chance to wrestle the advantage away and win the race to 95/96 by playing defensively.
Two points in hand with a fair chance of a helpful cut, with an innocuous discard (although a crib flush remains a possibility). * Does anybody know what you'd be subscribing to by clicking the tab above? Rosemarie44 says: Hi James; I noticed that this option comes up only after you log in. Once doing that, I don't get any further information so I emailed Matt and asked if he would post on the site. Matt says: You'll receive the hand in your email each day, james500 says: Thanks to you both for taking the time to respond to my query. Rosemarie44 says: I subscribed. |
Rosemarie44 2052 votes Joined: March 2016 |
    Sunday 3:58 AM
Such an awful hand. Tossing 6-Q, balking cards to dealer. These are usually only worth 2 points or less. |
dec 6350 votes Joined: April 2008 |
    Sunday 4:14 AM
20 odds cards against 26 even cuts. For my piece of mind another King cut might prove the safest here. A learnin time today? Lead the two maybe finagle the Kings for three. dec Guest says: meant the six ,ugly hand needless to say. dec |
Gougie00 5722 votes Joined: March 2008 |
    Sunday 5:09 AM
Lets see how smart this turns out to be. Lead the 2 and peg |
Andy (muesli64) 2223 votes Joined: August 2009 |
    Sunday 6:17 AM
My favourite hand!! Give dealer the worst possible combination. And take up Canasta |
horus93 1281 votes Joined: December 2017 |
    Sunday 9:44 AM
I like the Q-6 balk with dealer sitting right on par. Still, with us holding such abysmal cards, and with a good balk in the crib, I'd try to at least graph a "go" in the pegging... I think I'd lead a K. |
joekayak 1873 votes Joined: May 2016 |
    Sunday 1:52 PM
I'm with balking. Like the Q-6 barely over the Q-8. joekayak says: Last thing I throw is 8-6. Even if you told me a J was coming on the cut!! |
Ras2829 5145 votes Joined: November 2008 |
    Sunday 2:29 PM
Need one point to enter 3rd street CPZ (69-73) for the upcoming deal. Since opponent is there to deal, it's def., def., def. for me. If holding two points , 6-Q has the lowest average to opponent crib. Of course 6-K has a lower average though not willing to play zero points here. The 6-Q average is 4.142 (1,320) 5/91 as compared to the 8-Q at 4.300 (2,146) 12/91. The major difference between the two choices is that 6-Q scores 2 or fewer points 40% of the time while 8-Q does so 36.812%. They look much the same for cribs of 8 points or more and those that reach 12 or more. Will lead the deuce (most defensive choice possible and rids my hand of that single small card that often gets hung up with other small cards late in a pegging sequence. |
Coeurdelion 5589 votes Joined: October 2007 |
    Sunday 4:44 PM
We have a poor hand. The best we can do is hold the 2pts and throw a low scoring discard. I think its between 6-Q, 2-Q and 2-8:
2-8-K-K: 2pts - 4¼pts (Schell: 4.22) = -2¼pts 6-8-K-K: 2pts - 4½pts (Schell: 4.56) = -2½pts 6-Q-K-K: 2pts - 5pts (Schell: 4.94) = -3pts Potential: 2-8-K-K: Improves with 222, 3333, 5555, 7777, 888, KK = 20 cuts = 20/46 = 43.5% up to 6/8pts with 3333, 5555, KK = 10 cuts. 6-8-K-K: Improves with AAAA, 5555, 666, 7777, 888, 9999, KK = 24 cuts = 24/46 = 52.2% up to 6/7pts with 5555, 7777, KK = 10 cuts. 6-Q-K-K: Improves with 5555, 666, 9999, JJJJ, QQQ, KK = 20 cuts = 20/46 = 43.5% up to 6/8pts with 5555, JJJJ, KK = 10 cuts. Position: Dealer is in position but we only need 2pts to reach positional hole so I'll play Defense to hold Dealer back. Pegging: 2-8-K-K should peg slightly better. Summary: 2-8-K-K has the best starting value by ¼ptand although it doesn't have as many cuts for improvement as 6-8-K-K it has a better maximum at 8pts. So I'll throw the 6-Q. |
HalscribCLX 5312 votes Joined: February 2008 |
    Sunday 4:45 PM
At 68-70* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:
_______________Our Offense___Hand_Pegs__Crib___Total___W4 %____W5 % 2-8-K-K___3.48+1.20+(-4.25)=0.43____21.4____34.3 2-6-K-K___3.48+1.26+(-4.40)=0.34____24.1____35.5 6-8-K-K___3.57+1.30+(-4.63)=0.24____25.5____35.4 6-Q-K-K___3.65+1.30+(-4.94)=0.01____24.5____34.3 Offense______L4 %____L5 % 2-8-K-K______42.7____52.7 2-6-K-K______43.3____51.1 6-8-K-K______45.2____51.2 6-Q-K-K______45.6____52.6 2-8-K-K is best for expected averages by 0.09pt and is best for Loss %s. It isn't best for Win %s but because of the other two factors I'll select 6-Q to discard. After the A cut I'll lead the 2 and play Defense: Lead_______Dealer's Pegging Pts. 2_________________(-2.19) K_________________(-2.42) 8_________________(-2.74) |