Saturday 3:18 AM

Six more would be very nice. May have to play on with this keep. Keep ten to start with. dec

   

Saturday 3:25 AM

I don't think we could do any better than choosing the Flush today. Start with 8 points in the hand and at least 2 points in the crib. Every cut increases the hand to 10 points for a maximum of 14 points.
With the 9 cut we have 12 points plus at least 2 in the crib for 14 points. Pone with an average hand will be at around 93. Defense?
Take safe pegs. After this hand and next hand as pone we need to be at the CPZ of 95-99.

   

Saturday 3:57 AM

A strong case could be made for choosing either of J-J or 2-3, and I look forward to reading the comments due to appear throughout the course of the day debating the pros and cons of those two options. The 2-3-4-J flush is also a possibility, but I don't like the associated discard.

   

Saturday 4:44 AM

This is trivial.

   

Saturday 6:23 AM

Had there not been a flush, 2-3. Since there is, J-J. Hard to mess this one up. Whatever the opponent leads, try to play the 4 then parlay the 3-2-A for 4 points.

   

Saturday 6:32 AM

Agreed. Thought about 2-3, but tossed the Jacks.

   

Saturday 7:15 AM

All those Ras videos:

1a. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MpevEVvkTBw
1b. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cgzyuiPbyc8
2a. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lRzYii_DXmQ
2b. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KtNDPZ40nkE
3a. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lz3zN_uBqk0
3b. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q7iR11a5I8M
4a. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZORwmadUSmc
4b. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YHln8qhZtys
5a. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6XzJK9qC-iU
5b. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I3tXRwt6Rok
6a. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Ox-Fn_9BD4
6b. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wv6-FdVim0E
7a. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_7z4H0GPm2w
7b. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A_oRIK_00lY
8a. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_SUmTphluj4
8b. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vtmwWjmzYjM
9a. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pDr7289mkUQ
9b. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=58dw0gqkpQs

   

Saturday 1:29 PM

3x4 = 12! Every card helps suited A-2-3-4. Dealing short of 3rd street CPZ 69-73, it's off., off., off for me. Will take pegs as offered. If a X-point lead, will play the four forcing a five off the play. If opponent holding X-pointers or 1/2 fives with X-pointers, will advance the count to 24. Play the trey for count of 27, "go", drop the 2-A for run of three, and tally the four pegs. if a mid-card lead, try to hold 3-4 together just in case, bottom portion of hand is 5-6. Will pair small card leads. With the J-J discard, hope for the common 10-K from n/d or slightly less frequent 10-Q. Without those, the crib could be a scant two points as both Jacks were black.

   

Saturday 2:21 PM

Ditto Ras' comments!

   

Saturday 2:55 PM

I don't think there's any alternative to A-2-3-4 (J-J):

A-2-3-4: 8pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.33) = 13¼pts

Potential:

A-2-3-4: Improves with all cuts most of which add 3/4pts plus 8 clubs for 1pt extra for the flush and 1pt for his nob in the box = 16/46 = 0.35pt

Position:

We're 5pts short of position and Pone is 3pts short. I'll play cautious offense.

Pegging:

A-2-3-4 will of course peg very well.

Summary:

The alternatives are A-2-3-JC (4-J) and 2-3-4-JC (A-J) but although they start with 9pts the discards are worse and the potentials are not as good.

   

Saturday 3:12 PM

Not 2-3 this time!! It's a pair of jacks to the crib.

   

Saturday 3:57 PM

At 65*-83 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_________________Our
Defense___Hand___Pegs___Crib_Total____W3 %___W4 %
A-2-3-4___12.26+(-2.20)+5.16=15.22____8.9____23.7
A-2-3-JC__12.09+(-1.96)+3.51=13.64____6.3____20.4
2-3-4-JC__12.26+(-2.17)+3.37=13.46____5.5____19.3
A-4-J-J____8.35+(-1.98)+6.46=12.83____4.5____18.8

Defense_______L3 %___L4 %
A-2-3-4_______41.4___68.3
A-2-3-JC______39.5___71.8
2-3-4-JC______40.9___73.7
A-4-J-J_______34.3___72.7

A-2-3-4 is best for expected averages by 1.58pts and is appreciably best for Win %s and second lowest for Loss %s. So I'll select J-J to discard.

After the 9 cut I'll play Optimally to the lead (cautious offense).