Thursday 3:36 AM

This hand could get nine plus . Thirteen cuts also add. Three lead. dec

   

Thursday 4:27 AM

If desiring to keep two points, 7-Q has lowest score to opponent crib of any of these six cards. They are also of little value to the hand potential. Choosing off., off.,off, lead a ten and take any pegs offered.

   

Thursday 4:29 AM

4, 5 or J all give you 8. 31010Q same with 2, 5 or J. 3 is the better lead card, Ace possible 31 but could aldo be a liability. I may have just talked myself into 31010Q.

   

Thursday 4:41 AM

Best hold, tossing 7-Q to dealer. two to nine points for maximum hand.

   

Thursday 4:51 AM

Keep the two points and A-3 for pegging. Q-7 is a fairly safe toss.

   

Thursday 5:42 AM

I agree with Zeke, very little synergy between a Queen and a Seven. Possible crib flush here though.

   

Thursday 7:39 AM

Learning has occurred.

   

Thursday 8:17 AM

7-Q is a strong defensive toss to opponent’s crib. As first pone, will peg aggressively and lead a 10.

   

Thursday 9:22 AM

When you don't have the ammunition...shoot blanks.
Discard Q-7 and hope for the best.

   

Thursday 10:32 AM

I hat a beautifully ugly hand to start off. There’s no great draw here, so might as well take what we can get.

I think this choice leads to highest hand expectatio and has the path to the maximum hand (2 cut for 9pts).

Maybe our opponent will have a 2pt hand and a 0pt crib!

   

Thursday 12:58 PM

I agree with the majority that A-3-10-10 (7-Q) has the best potential, should peg well and 7-Q is a good discard. Next best I think will be 3-7-10-10 (A-Q):

A-3-10-10: 2pts - 4¼pts (Schell: 4.32) = -2¼pts

3-7-10-10: 2pts - 4½pts (Schell: 4.33) = -2½pts

Potential:

A-3-10-10: Improves with AAA, 2222, 333, 4444, 5555, 1010 = 20 cuts = 20/46 = 43.5% up to 6/8/9pts with AAA, 2222, 4444, 5555, 1010 = 17 cuts.

3-7-10-10: Improves with 2222, 333, 5555, 777, 8888, 1010 = 20 = 20/46 = 43.5% cuts up to 6/8pts with 2222, 5555, 1010 = 10 cuts.

Position:

As First Pone I'll play Offense.

Pegging:

I think A-3-10-10 will peg better than 3-7-10-10.

Summary:

A-3-10-10 has a starting value ¼pt better than 3-7-10-10 although Schell puts them at almost identical. A-3-10-10 should also peg better and though both have the same number of cuts for improvement it has 17 cuts for 6-9pts vs. 10 cuts for 6-8pts. So I'll chose 7-Q to discard.

   

Thursday 1:22 PM

At 0-0* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs__Crib___Total___W9 %____W10 %
A-3-10-10_4.00+1.37+(-4.39)=0.98____16.5____17.7
3-7-10-10_3.48+1.28+(-4.37)=0.39____15.9____17.4
3-10-10-Q_4.00+1.00+(-4.77)=0.23____16.5____17.5
A-10-10-Q_4.00+1.20+(-5.02)=0.18____16.6____16.9
A-7-10-10_3.43+1.24+(-4.60)=0.07____16.9____17.5

Offense______L9 %____L10 %
A-3-10-10____36.2____54.5
3-7-10-10____36.0____54.6
3-10-10-Q____36.6____54.7
A-10-10-Q____37.7____55.7
A-7-10-10____36.7____54.7

A-3-10-10 is best for expected averages by 0.59pt and is very slightly best for Win % and lowest for Loss %s. So I'll select 7-Q to discard.

After the A cut I'll lead a 10 and play Offense:

Lead____________Our Pegging Pts.
10___________________1.47
A____________________0.62
3____________________0.61