March 12, 2019

*** This hand was suggested by acis1 on ecribbage.com
21-27*  ?
64%
17%
7%
5%
2%
1%
Total votes: 176

Play this scenario out against a robot designed by Hal Mueller for eCribbage.com

dec
4475 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Tuesday 3:37 AM
Hunches are not the correct way to go. I will go for the four or seven cut this way. Six lead. dec
Rosemarie44
1219 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Tuesday 4:25 AM
Expected averages. Only 10 cuts do not increase the value of this hand (AAA, 2222, and 888) unless it is a club. I see that the starter card is a club.
Gougie00
3899 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Tuesday 5:04 AM
The cribbage Goddess is laughing at me this morning. I threw away a 12 hand for 4 points. What a dope!

Lead the 6 and next hand will be better.
james500
2136 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Tuesday 5:57 AM
I'll keep the black cards.
6c lead.
mfetchCT425
311 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Tuesday 6:20 AM
Will not hold 6 and give 2 (a dangerous 2 to boot). Better to hold 4 (with touching cards 5-6-6). We hold two 6’s which even makes me feel better about the A-8 throw. Will lead a 6 to keep most variety of cards for next response.
Cribsurfer
268 votes

Joined: September 2016

   
Tuesday 7:15 AM
I’ll toss away A-8, shouldn’t be too bad since I have a few sixes.
ccoley
79 votes

Joined: December 2018

   
Tuesday 8:09 AM
Only down by 6 but feels much worse since I am far from 43. Was it too early for off, off, off?
JRCeagle78
654 votes

Joined: June 2016

   
Tuesday 8:11 AM
I still kept the hand live if a 7 was the starter. The Ace helps out a little. Since this hand is clearly being played defensively, the 5-6-8-A gives me a little more flexibility. I made sure the J-6 discard was unsuited. Lead the 6.
horus93
419 votes

Joined: December 2017

   
Tuesday 8:15 AM
This is an offensive position but not so offensive for me to risk throwing the 5-J. I'd lead the J and go for the ol' X/15-2/20-2 exchange.
dgergens
337 votes

Joined: January 2018

   
Tuesday 10:33 AM
It's not worth 2 points to put 15 in the dealer's crib. Nice cut for those willing to risk it.
Coeurdelion
3844 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Tuesday 2:47 PM
5-6-6-J (A-8) or A-6-6-8 (5-J)?:

5-6-6-J: 4pts - 4¾pts (Schell: 4.85) = -¾pt

A-6-6-8: 6pts - 8pts (Schell: 7.76) = -2pts

Potential:

5-6-6-J: Improves with 3333, 4444, 555, 66, 9999 + 15xXs = 32 cuts = 32/46 = 69.6% up to 8/14pts with 4444, 66, 9999, JJJ = 13 cuts. Plus 11 clubs for 1pt extra for his nob = 11/46 = 0.24pt.

A-6-6-8: Improves with AAA, 3333, 66, 7777, 888, 9999 = 20 cuts = 20/46 = 43.5% up to 10/12/14pts with AAA, 66, 7777, 888, 9999 = 16 cuts.

Position:

We need 23pts to reach next positional hole for our deal so I'll play Offense.

Pegging:

I think neither hand is ideal for pegging Offense and that there'll be little between them.

Summary:

5-6-6-J starts with 1¼pts more, has more cuts for improvement and although it has less cuts for an average to very good hand it also has the ¼pt benefit of the nob potential. So I think 5-6-6-J will be way ahead of A-6-6-8 and therefore will throw the A-8.
HalscribCLX
3607 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Tuesday 2:50 PM
At 21-27* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs__Crib___Total___W7 %____W8 %
5-6-6-J___7.37+1.33+(-4.34)=4.36____12.8____13.3
A-5-6-6___5.96+1.78+(-4.45)=3.29_____9.7____10.6
5-6-6-8___5.78+1.70+(-4.72)=2.76____11.5____11.5
5-6-8-J___4.93+1.96+(-4.33)=2.56_____9.9____11.0
A-5-6C-8__5.26+1.52+(-4.30)=2.48_____9.7____10.7
A-6-6-8___8.43+1.13+(-7.93)=1.63____14.0_____9.9

Offense_________L7 %____L8 %
5-6-6-J_________39.9____62.6
A-5-6-6_________40.9____64.7
5-6-6-8_________41.6____64.8
5-6-8-J_________40.6____65.0
A-5-6C-8________41.2____65.6
A-6-6-8_________49.7____69.7

5-6-6-J is best for expected averages by 1.07pts and is also significantly best for Win %s and Loss %s. So I'll select A-8 to discard.

After the A cut I'll lead a 6 and play Offense:

Lead_____________Our Pegging Pts.
6______________________1.53
J______________________1.49
5______________________1.00
Ras2829
3373 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Tuesday 5:40 PM
Can't justify 5-J discard to retain A-6-6-8. Not HalscribCLX analysis above which shows that 5 other choices are preferable to holding A-6-6-8 and all of them keep the five spot in n/d hand. It's pure offense from the git-go, lead the 6C, and take any pegs offered.