March 12, 2019

*** This hand was suggested by acis1 on ecribbage.com
21-27*  ?
64%
17%
7%
5%
2%
1%
Total votes: 176
dec
6352 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Tuesday 3:37 AM
Hunches are not the correct way to go. I will go for the four or seven cut this way. Six lead. dec
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Tuesday 4:25 AM
Expected averages. Only 10 cuts do not increase the value of this hand (AAA, 2222, and 888) unless it is a club. I see that the starter card is a club.
Gougie00
5724 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Tuesday 5:04 AM
The cribbage Goddess is laughing at me this morning. I threw away a 12 hand for 4 points. What a dope!

Lead the 6 and next hand will be better.
Guest says: As long as you would be happy giving opponent 2 cards worth 8.14 points?
Gougie00 says: Its a race to 121, and I outsmarted myself.
dgergens says: Hi Gougie, regarding yesterday, I did not know the 9 would cut, that\'s not how I play this game/website. When I\'m 180 out from EVERYONE, I have to go off and do some soul searching; puts a damper on my day. I\'m gun-shy when it comes to tossing 7,9, but clearly no one else was, and holding 2,3,4 was the easy choice for everyone. Next time that hand comes up I\'ll remember yesterday\'s lesson.
dgergens says: Why the slashes every time one uses an apostrophe?
Guest says: I noticed the slashes lately. This is a new occurrence. Rosemarie44
james500
3917 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Tuesday 5:57 AM
I'll keep the black cards.
6c lead.
mfetchCT425
1395 votes

Joined: February 2009
 
 
 
Tuesday 6:20 AM
Will not hold 6 and give 2 (a dangerous 2 to boot). Better to hold 4 (with touching cards 5-6-6). We hold two 6’s which even makes me feel better about the A-8 throw. Will lead a 6 to keep most variety of cards for next response.
Cribsurfer
762 votes

Joined: September 2016
 
 
 
Tuesday 7:15 AM
I’ll toss away A-8, shouldn’t be too bad since I have a few sixes.
ccoley
83 votes

Joined: December 2018
 
 
 
Tuesday 8:09 AM
Only down by 6 but feels much worse since I am far from 43. Was it too early for off, off, off?
JRCeagle78
1054 votes

Joined: June 2016
 
 
 
Tuesday 8:11 AM
I still kept the hand live if a 7 was the starter. The Ace helps out a little. Since this hand is clearly being played defensively, the 5-6-8-A gives me a little more flexibility. I made sure the J-6 discard was unsuited. Lead the 6.
horus93
1281 votes

Joined: December 2017
 
 
 
Tuesday 8:15 AM
This is an offensive position but not so offensive for me to risk throwing the 5-J. I'd lead the J and go for the ol' X/15-2/20-2 exchange.
horus93 says: Looked too fast, I thought we were at 31 not 21. At -13/+9 this is more of a balanced position and I\'m accordingly all the more sure in the A-8 toss.
dgergens
938 votes

Joined: January 2018
 
 
 
Tuesday 10:33 AM
It's not worth 2 points to put 15 in the dealer's crib. Nice cut for those willing to risk it.
Coeurdelion
5589 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Tuesday 2:47 PM
5-6-6-J (A-8) or A-6-6-8 (5-J)?:

5-6-6-J: 4pts - 4¾pts (Schell: 4.85) = -¾pt

A-6-6-8: 6pts - 8pts (Schell: 7.76) = -2pts

Potential:

5-6-6-J: Improves with 3333, 4444, 555, 66, 9999 + 15xXs = 32 cuts = 32/46 = 69.6% up to 8/14pts with 4444, 66, 9999, JJJ = 13 cuts. Plus 11 clubs for 1pt extra for his nob = 11/46 = 0.24pt.

A-6-6-8: Improves with AAA, 3333, 66, 7777, 888, 9999 = 20 cuts = 20/46 = 43.5% up to 10/12/14pts with AAA, 66, 7777, 888, 9999 = 16 cuts.

Position:

We need 23pts to reach next positional hole for our deal so I'll play Offense.

Pegging:

I think neither hand is ideal for pegging Offense and that there'll be little between them.

Summary:

5-6-6-J starts with 1¼pts more, has more cuts for improvement and although it has less cuts for an average to very good hand it also has the ¼pt benefit of the nob potential. So I think 5-6-6-J will be way ahead of A-6-6-8 and therefore will throw the A-8.
HalscribCLX
5312 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Tuesday 2:50 PM
At 21-27* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs__Crib___Total___W7 %____W8 %
5-6-6-J___7.37+1.33+(-4.34)=4.36____12.8____13.3
A-5-6-6___5.96+1.78+(-4.45)=3.29_____9.7____10.6
5-6-6-8___5.78+1.70+(-4.72)=2.76____11.5____11.5
5-6-8-J___4.93+1.96+(-4.33)=2.56_____9.9____11.0
A-5-6C-8__5.26+1.52+(-4.30)=2.48_____9.7____10.7
A-6-6-8___8.43+1.13+(-7.93)=1.63____14.0_____9.9

Offense_________L7 %____L8 %
5-6-6-J_________39.9____62.6
A-5-6-6_________40.9____64.7
5-6-6-8_________41.6____64.8
5-6-8-J_________40.6____65.0
A-5-6C-8________41.2____65.6
A-6-6-8_________49.7____69.7

5-6-6-J is best for expected averages by 1.07pts and is also significantly best for Win %s and Loss %s. So I'll select A-8 to discard.

After the A cut I'll lead a 6 and play Offense:

Lead_____________Our Pegging Pts.
6______________________1.53
J______________________1.49
5______________________1.00
Ras2829
5146 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Tuesday 5:40 PM
Can't justify 5-J discard to retain A-6-6-8. Not HalscribCLX analysis above which shows that 5 other choices are preferable to holding A-6-6-8 and all of them keep the five spot in n/d hand. It's pure offense from the git-go, lead the 6C, and take any pegs offered.