March 10, 2019

*** This hand was suggested by PRSstrummer on ecribbage.com
0-0*  ?
51%
16%
15%
7%
6%
1%
1%
0%
Total votes: 153
dec
6357 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Sunday 3:09 AM
Not great odds for a cut but it still starts at eight points. Three of diamonds lead. dec
Jazzselke
2586 votes

Joined: March 2009
 
 
 
Sunday 3:58 AM
Would rather throw 59 than 35 or 33.
Guest says: how about 3-9
travelingman2019 says: As you know from working with me, I USED to be reluctant to toss 5 into enemy crib....however it is beginning of game, I am non-dealer, get all pts you can off the bat, also 95 is fairly harmless, 33 or 35 is inviting end of game early.......
Guest says: Why don\'t you give away your wallet also
Guest says: Certainly 39 is much more defensive, but as first non-dealer I would rather start with 8 points instead of 4. As far as my wallet it\'s fairly old so have at it.
Guest says: Above is Jazzselke, full disclosure. More transparent than others.
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Sunday 4:10 AM
First hand pone is Offense. I must say that this is an offensive decision tossing 5-9 to dealer. Starts with 8 points.
Ras2829 says: Hi Rosemarie44: One tends to recall that 5-9 does not score so well to own crib. Have much less recall as to value when tossed to opponent as we seldom discard 5-9 on the other side of the board. Many players are fearful of the A-4 discard which has an average of 5.618 while 5-9 average is 6.065 when tossed to opponent. The five with anything is nearly six on the other side of the board with A-5 weighing in at 5.811. Could it be that 5-9 is third best choice in terms of combined value (pegs, hand score, less the crib value)? Will defer to HalscribCLX on those numbers. More later.
Guest says: You were correct, Ras. Rosemarie. The value for 5-9 to opponent is I believe, 6.06 pts.
Gougie00
5729 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Sunday 6:32 AM
Pregnant 3's again. I had a 18 hand last Wednesday when I got help, but usually this hand is 8 in and 8 out. Not excited to give the dealer my 5, but the 9 should soften the blow. Lead the 3 and play it ad hoc. If the dealer wants to peg, then we may have to engage.
james500
3922 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Sunday 7:12 AM
9-5 from me too.
Cribsurfer
766 votes

Joined: September 2016
 
 
 
Sunday 9:15 AM
I like starting with 8, 5-9 not too bad a discard on the first deal
wasa
3017 votes

Joined: November 2014
 
 
 
Sunday 9:44 AM
All commenters agree - keep the sure 8 points.
horus93
1281 votes

Joined: December 2017
 
 
 
Sunday 10:39 AM
As first pone holding good cards I'll discard aggressively, aiming to win the game by counting out as pone on the 8th deal after this one. I don't have discard tables memorized but I figure 3-3 is probably more dangerous than 5-9 anyway. Neither keep looks like a great pegging hand for pone, I'd lead a 6 and take whatever I can get.
horus93 says: Ofc with that cut and this pegging hand we\'re not likely to put too much of a dent in our deficit this hand but with 5-9 in dealer\'s crib he\'ll probably be pushed too far ahead for slowing the game down to be a feasible option. Onward!
Coeurdelion
5594 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Sunday 12:40 PM
3-3-6-6 (5-9), 5-6-6-9 (3-3) or perhaps 3-5-6-6 (3-9):

3-3-6-6: 8pts - 6¼pts (Schell: 6.15) = 1¾pts

5-6-6-9: 6pts - 6½pts (Schell: 6.68) = -½pt

3-5-6-6: 4pts - 4¾pts (Schell: 4.87) = -¾pt

Potential:

3-3-6-6: Improves with 33, 66, 9999 = 8 cuts = 8/46 = 17.4% up to 14/18/20pts with all cuts.

5-6-6-9: Improves with AAAA, 33, 4444, 555, 66, 7777, 999 + 16xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 12/16pts with 4444, 66, 7777, 999 = 13 cuts.

3-5-6-6: Improves with AAAA, 33, 4444, 555, 66, 7777, 999 + 16xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 8/12/16pts with AAAA, 33, 4444, 66, 7777, 999 = 19 cuts.

Position:

As First Pone we'll play Offense.

Pegging:

I think 3-5-6-6 ought to peg best with 5-6-6-9 next best.

Summary:

3-3-6-6 is 2¼/2½pts better than the other two but it has many fewer cuts for improvement although a very good maximum. Both 5-6-6-9 and 3-5-6-6 have many more cuts for improvement and a maximum of 16pts. 3-5-6-6 has 19 cuts for 8-16pts while 5-6-6-9 has 13 cuts for 12/16pts. Even with the better pegging and potential I don't think either of these two hands will catch up the 2¼/2½pts so I'll throw 5-9.
HalscribCLX
5317 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Sunday 12:56 PM
At 0-0*playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs__Crib___Total___W9 %____W10 %
3-5-6-6___7.70+1.61+(-4.19)=5.12____25.9____23.9
5-6-6-9___9.13+1.52+(-6.35)=4.30____29.6____23.9
3-3-6-6___9.35+0.93+(-6.14)=4.14____27.8____23.4

Offense______L9 %____L10 %
3-5-6-6______37.8____50.3
5-6-6-9______42.7____51.8
3-3-6-6______40.9____51.9

3-5-6-6 is best for expected averages by 0.82pt and it is also lowest for Loss %s. 5-6-6-9 is best for Win 5s but even so I'll select 3-9 to discard.

After the 10 cut I'll lead a 6 and play Offense:

Lead_________Our Pegging Pts.
6_________________1.58
3_________________1.19
5_________________0.78
joekayak
1873 votes

Joined: May 2016
 
 
 
Sunday 1:57 PM
Amazing. Not one commenter (including me) went with the computer choice. Seems we were all blinded by holding the 8 point 3-3-6-6. However the danger of the 5 in opponents crib outweighs the loss of 4 points by holding 3-5-6-6.
LoneStarPegger
811 votes

Joined: January 2008
 
 
 
Sunday 2:43 PM
Still lots to learn
Ras2829
5153 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Sunday 3:41 PM
You might have noted my early reply to Rosemarie44. That gave a distinct clue as to what my intent was. What is demonstrated here is than in hands of 8 point or less for n/d, it is advantageous to keep the five spot, even with a lesser number of points. The 5-9 to opponent crib averages 6.065 (170). Yup, it's off., off., off., lead the 6d, and take any pegs offered. The superior pegging potential of 3-5-6-6and the much smaller crib more than make up for the loss in direct hand score. HalscribCLX analysis shows the numbers.
Andy (muesli64)
2223 votes

Joined: August 2009
 
 
 
Sunday 4:17 PM
Yes, throw 3-9 on balance.
dgergens
938 votes

Joined: January 2018
 
 
 
Sunday 10:00 PM
I was going to keep the 5 because I've learned from this site how valuable a 5 in the crib is. But my thought was worst case is what, two X cards in the crib or a 4,6? I've got two of the sixes. It was worth the 8 points to risk it. I'm sure that crib average is less with the 3's & 6's in my hand.
dgergens says: Less than the 6.0 that Ras quotes.
Ras2829 says: Hi dgergens: You\'re correct in that my discard averages are static although were impacted by negative delta in many of the hands from which discarded. HalscribCLX figures are computed with the known negative delta. Even so, Hal shows the 5-9 average at 6.14 to opponent crib.