March 10, 2019

*** This hand was suggested by PRSstrummer on ecribbage.com
0-0*  ?
51%
16%
15%
7%
6%
1%
1%
0%
Total votes: 153

Play this scenario out against a robot designed by Hal Mueller for eCribbage.com

dec
4409 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Sunday 3:09 AM
Not great odds for a cut but it still starts at eight points. Three of diamonds lead. dec
Jazzselke
1177 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Sunday 3:58 AM
Would rather throw 59 than 35 or 33.
Rosemarie44
1151 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Sunday 4:10 AM
First hand pone is Offense. I must say that this is an offensive decision tossing 5-9 to dealer. Starts with 8 points.
Gougie00
3831 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Sunday 6:32 AM
Pregnant 3's again. I had a 18 hand last Wednesday when I got help, but usually this hand is 8 in and 8 out. Not excited to give the dealer my 5, but the 9 should soften the blow. Lead the 3 and play it ad hoc. If the dealer wants to peg, then we may have to engage.
james500
2076 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Sunday 7:12 AM
9-5 from me too.
Cribsurfer
227 votes

Joined: September 2016

   
Sunday 9:15 AM
I like starting with 8, 5-9 not too bad a discard on the first deal
wasa
1156 votes

Joined: November 2014

   
Sunday 9:44 AM
All commenters agree - keep the sure 8 points.
horus93
361 votes

Joined: December 2017

   
Sunday 10:39 AM
As first pone holding good cards I'll discard aggressively, aiming to win the game by counting out as pone on the 8th deal after this one. I don't have discard tables memorized but I figure 3-3 is probably more dangerous than 5-9 anyway. Neither keep looks like a great pegging hand for pone, I'd lead a 6 and take whatever I can get.
Coeurdelion
3781 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Sunday 12:40 PM
3-3-6-6 (5-9), 5-6-6-9 (3-3) or perhaps 3-5-6-6 (3-9):

3-3-6-6: 8pts - 6¼pts (Schell: 6.15) = 1¾pts

5-6-6-9: 6pts - 6½pts (Schell: 6.68) = -½pt

3-5-6-6: 4pts - 4¾pts (Schell: 4.87) = -¾pt

Potential:

3-3-6-6: Improves with 33, 66, 9999 = 8 cuts = 8/46 = 17.4% up to 14/18/20pts with all cuts.

5-6-6-9: Improves with AAAA, 33, 4444, 555, 66, 7777, 999 + 16xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 12/16pts with 4444, 66, 7777, 999 = 13 cuts.

3-5-6-6: Improves with AAAA, 33, 4444, 555, 66, 7777, 999 + 16xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 8/12/16pts with AAAA, 33, 4444, 66, 7777, 999 = 19 cuts.

Position:

As First Pone we'll play Offense.

Pegging:

I think 3-5-6-6 ought to peg best with 5-6-6-9 next best.

Summary:

3-3-6-6 is 2¼/2½pts better than the other two but it has many fewer cuts for improvement although a very good maximum. Both 5-6-6-9 and 3-5-6-6 have many more cuts for improvement and a maximum of 16pts. 3-5-6-6 has 19 cuts for 8-16pts while 5-6-6-9 has 13 cuts for 12/16pts. Even with the better pegging and potential I don't think either of these two hands will catch up the 2¼/2½pts so I'll throw 5-9.
HalscribCLX
3549 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Sunday 12:56 PM
At 0-0*playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs__Crib___Total___W9 %____W10 %
3-5-6-6___7.70+1.61+(-4.19)=5.12____25.9____23.9
5-6-6-9___9.13+1.52+(-6.35)=4.30____29.6____23.9
3-3-6-6___9.35+0.93+(-6.14)=4.14____27.8____23.4

Offense______L9 %____L10 %
3-5-6-6______37.8____50.3
5-6-6-9______42.7____51.8
3-3-6-6______40.9____51.9

3-5-6-6 is best for expected averages by 0.82pt and it is also lowest for Loss %s. 5-6-6-9 is best for Win 5s but even so I'll select 3-9 to discard.

After the 10 cut I'll lead a 6 and play Offense:

Lead_________Our Pegging Pts.
6_________________1.58
3_________________1.19
5_________________0.78
joekayak
684 votes

Joined: May 2016

   
Sunday 1:57 PM
Amazing. Not one commenter (including me) went with the computer choice. Seems we were all blinded by holding the 8 point 3-3-6-6. However the danger of the 5 in opponents crib outweighs the loss of 4 points by holding 3-5-6-6.
LoneStarPegger
584 votes

Joined: January 2008

   
Sunday 2:43 PM
Still lots to learn
Ras2829
3313 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Sunday 3:41 PM
You might have noted my early reply to Rosemarie44. That gave a distinct clue as to what my intent was. What is demonstrated here is than in hands of 8 point or less for n/d, it is advantageous to keep the five spot, even with a lesser number of points. The 5-9 to opponent crib averages 6.065 (170). Yup, it's off., off., off., lead the 6d, and take any pegs offered. The superior pegging potential of 3-5-6-6and the much smaller crib more than make up for the loss in direct hand score. HalscribCLX analysis shows the numbers.
Andy (muesli64)
1475 votes

Joined: August 2009

   
Sunday 4:17 PM
Yes, throw 3-9 on balance.
dgergens
277 votes

Joined: January 2018

   
Sunday 10:00 PM
I was going to keep the 5 because I've learned from this site how valuable a 5 in the crib is. But my thought was worst case is what, two X cards in the crib or a 4,6? I've got two of the sixes. It was worth the 8 points to risk it. I'm sure that crib average is less with the 3's & 6's in my hand.