February 17, 2019

*** This hand was suggested by Andy (muesli64)
104-116*  ?
62%
28%
5%
1%
1%
0%
Total votes: 163
dec
6352 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Sunday 3:01 AM
a one percent better chance with this keep. dec
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Sunday 3:55 AM
I don't think we have a snowball's chance in hell with these cards at this position on the board.
wasa says: If we cut 5h, 5c, Qs, or Ks we have 17. The 5s gives us 18. So 5 cuts give us enough points. Other Q or K gives 16. The J cut gives dealer 2 which would be scary. In any of those scenarios, what should I lead?
james500 says: Hi Wasa. For what it\'s worth, were the cut to be a 5, Queen or King, I\'d lead my 5. Were it to be a Jack, I\'d lead my Jack.
Rosemarie44 says: Yesterday, Ras says to lead the JACK. You can go to yesterday\'s results and see his comments if you want to.
Gougie00
5724 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Sunday 4:51 AM
Doctor, doctor, its a recurring dream ...
Paramount defense, lead the 4, try to ditch the 5, and play off.
horus93
1281 votes

Joined: December 2017
 
 
 
Sunday 5:52 AM
Easier to play off with this hand? Not very good odds of getting the cut we need either way.
horus93 says: By \"off\" I mean defense as opposed to playing \"on\"
Hillchem
2907 votes

Joined: April 2015
 
 
 
Sunday 9:56 AM
Alright, so I missed the cut. I don't see any reason to play defence at all. This game is a sure loss, so the best I can do is to try to peg a a couple to help with the differential.
HalscribCLX
5312 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Sunday 1:14 PM
At 104-116* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages (ignoring the crib) and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Our
Defense___Hand__Pegs_Total____W1 %
5-J-Q-K___11.39+1.15=12.54____25.0
4-5-6-J____9.98+1.04=11.02____12.5

5-J-Q-K is better for expected averages by 1.52pt and is twice as likely to Win as 4-5-6-J so I'll select 4-6 to discard.

After the 3 cut I'll lead the 5 and play Offense:

Lead___________Loss %s
5_______________80.9
J_______________86.2
Q_______________88.5
K_______________91.2
Coeurdelion
5589 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Sunday 1:50 PM
Even more reason to keep the 5-J-Q-K
dgergens
938 votes

Joined: January 2018
 
 
 
Sunday 8:58 PM
dgergens says: I disagree with tossing the 4,6. The only way to win for sure* is with a 5 cut (*would have to peg 1 if you toss Q,K). Otherwise you need a lucky cut and some serious pegging. If it comes down to pegging, I think I\'ll do better with 4,5,6 than J,Q,K.
Ras2829
5147 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Sunday 9:22 PM
With the dealer needing 5 points to win, am not thinking of defense her at all. I need 17 points to win I'm thinking offense shaded towards BOLD. If I can't win, want to cut the spread as much as possible. Given that will lead the five and take any pegs offered. BTW, would have led the five with dealer needing five pegs with any group of X-point cards. The five in this hand is the only card the dealer could score five pegs in several different scenarios. So the lead of the five gets rid of the one card in this hand that might beat me, and it also gives me the best chance to peg.
joekayak
1873 votes

Joined: May 2016
 
 
 
Sunday 9:31 PM
lead the 5, cut the spread points, NEXT GAME PLEASE!