February 13, 2019

*** This hand was suggested by Ras2829
84*-85  ?
28%
20%
15%
13%
10%
5%
2%
1%
1%
0%
Total votes: 170
dec
6358 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 3:20 AM
Got a cover if that three get cuts. So the four cut is the only non gain here. Lead will make us decide if we go for the aces here at end. dec
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Wednesday 3:25 AM
Nice one Ras. The only cuts that don't improve the hand, help the crib (3333, 444).
dgergens
938 votes

Joined: January 2018
 
 
 
Wednesday 3:28 AM
Aces in the crib never got me anything. Gambled on the X cut, and 5 in the crib is a good thing, right?
james500
3923 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Wednesday 4:52 AM
I'll try the "triple nickel" hand.
Every cut helps somewhere.
glmccuskey
4101 votes

Joined: April 2011
 
 
 
Wednesday 5:23 AM
Since I’m pegging defensively I didn’t want the tight grouping of the triple nickels.
Jazzselke
2586 votes

Joined: March 2009
 
 
 
Wednesday 5:32 AM
Tough choice. Holding 4, gappers in the crib, aces possible for pegging. With the opponent at 85, th ef big question is
Jazzselke says: ...the big question is would you take the 15 on a face-card lead?
Guest says: I\'d dump an A. My hold was A-A-2-4, where I\'d make the same play. Any face is certainly a scare card given the cut and board.
Jazzselke says: Agreed to not to take the 15
Jazzselke says: ...although you didn\'t have the choice.
Guest says: Why would you not take the 15 on a ten lead?
Jazzselke says: Playing defense, keep opponent from Hole 95 if possible. Play the 8, maybe get the aces in at the count of 28.
travelingman2019 says: I agree with averting from not taking the 15...if they would pair that you are faced with wasting an A or putting the 8 down and risking 31-4......make it 11, or 8 if something other than a 10 is lead.......
dgergens says: Appreciate your patients. If you play a 5 for 15, pone pairs you, now we\'re at 20. If you play the 8, there\'s a good chance you get a go plus your pair of aces. Any reason to believe they have a 3? And if they have a 2 or A, that could be good too (unless they also have 2 aces). And how could pone get 4 points for a 31 after you throw the 8?
Ras2829 says: Hi dgergens: Sounds like the 8 would make the count 23. If opponent has an 8 would close the count for 31-4 (2 for the pair and 2 for the 31).
Ras2829 says: Hi dgergens: Should have read the entire litany of comments. After doing so, don\'t think what I posted above makes any sense. Sorry!
travelingman2019 says: i got the count mixed up......it is 20 not 23...sorry
zeke76
1396 votes

Joined: August 2018
 
 
 
Wednesday 5:52 AM
Leaves a chance for the run. Only double nickel, but the other nickel is in my crib.

That's the cut I wanted.
Gougie00
5730 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 6:39 AM
I guessed right. I figured a face would be cut. I think defense is in order to keep the pone from reached hole 95. However, if he has all low cards, there will be a pegging war.
JRCeagle78
1054 votes

Joined: June 2016
 
 
 
Wednesday 7:34 AM
I'll play defense, but I did not want all low cards. I kept the 8 for an escape card should the need arrive. At least I have 4 points in the crib.
I think the best that I can expect is to be around hole 94 give or take.
Andy (muesli64)
2223 votes

Joined: August 2009
 
 
 
Wednesday 8:33 AM
I prefer 2-4 in box. Best value points and pegging.
joekayak
1873 votes

Joined: May 2016
 
 
 
Wednesday 11:16 AM
This hold is quite in the minority. I think this is the best hold that allows us to peg defensively and also maybe stack the aces. Hold-em Hold-em Hold-em.
joekayak says: Good puzzle. Many possibilities. Interested to see how many choices the computer evaluates and how they rank.
HalscribCLX
5317 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 2:02 PM
At 84*-85 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Pone's
Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total___W3 %____W4 %
A-A-2-4___5.30+(-2.17)+5.58=8.71____59.3____47.0
A-A-2-8___4.17+(-2.30)+6.53=8.40____57.6____50.0
A-A-5-8___6.57+(-2.41)+4.22=8.38____58.6____51.3
A-A-4-8___5.17+(-2.28)+5.46=8.35____57.7____41.5
A-2-4-8___4.83+(-1.93)+5.37=8.27____55.1____48.0

Defense______L3 %____L4 %
A-A-2-4______53.5____36.1
A-A-2-8______49.1____33.2
A-A-5-8______48.3____31.8
A-A-4-8______59.7____42.2
A-2-4-8______51.0____35.8

A-A-2-4 is best for expected averages by 0.31pt but A-A-5-8 is appreciably best for Win %s and Loss %s. As we're approaching positional hole at 96pts I'll decide based on the win/Loss %s and select 2-4 to discard.

After the K cut I'll play Defense to the lead.
Guest says: Really interesting. I selected A-A-2-4 as a hand that you could still do OK with in giving up pegs (knowing I\'d certainly get caught sometimes and let up a bundle) but that, over the long haul, would do well in balancing D with some O in points. Pegs column (second best) and overall points column (best) seem to bear that out. But the W/L columns certainly do not. Almost in a way that doesn\'t jibe with the former? I won\'t pretend to fully understand that relationship.
wasa says: I\'m missing something. The numbers show A-A-2-4 is best for total points (8.71) and best for W3(59.3%) but for some reason Halscrib says A-A-5-8 is better? I don\'t get it. Where is the \"... appreciably best for win %s\"? It is for W4 but not for W3, which we should care about more than W4. Sorry - I disagree with Halscrib on this one (wasa)
Ras2829
5154 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 3:16 PM
RAS has long just played the numbers. Once in a great while I will deviate based on win/loss considerations. That might be when I am 30 points behind, dealing, and deal myself 4-4-5-5-7-10. If behind as described, would go for the huge hand by hold 4-4-5-5. In other situations would start with 5-5-7-X with 4-4 to my crib. Starting with 8 points with the deal with such cards has the greater value. Here with opponent needing ten points to deal, would look at combined values only. The cribbot is capable of projecting win/loss % from any where on the board. I know of no human so gifted. My advice to others is to "play the numbers". Think there is some value in a general way to be able to approximate win/loss percentages. It is good to know that non-dealer averages 9-10 points (pegs and score of hand). Likewise good to know that dealer averages 16 points (pegs, hand ,and crib scores). If you know those and have some idea of the odds for scoring a given number of points on a deal, will improve your game. BTW DeLynn Colvert's book "Play Winning Cribbage" worth the investment just to have the one page with the odds for dealer scoring 1-41 and for n/d scoring 1-31. You'll not be as nervous if opponent is counting first and needs 12 to win. If you know it is 3-1 against non-dealer doing so, you can pick up a few wins by playing SAFE, avoid the pegs. So it is here, it's def., def., def, and play off the lead. Limit non-dealer movement down the board here is the best thing to do, keep n/d from scoring ten points. That 4th street CPZ is 95-99.