Saturday 4:20 AM

Expected averages favor tossing the pair of 4's to the crib and holding 2-5-J-J. The value for 4-4 is 5.54 points; for 2-4, 4.64; and for J-J, 5.28 points. I am using Ras's figures.

   

Saturday 4:31 AM

That is a nice six cut for discarding the Jacks . Not desparation for me yet respect starting with six and go in with defense on the pegging in mind. dec

   

Saturday 4:42 AM

Two fewer points to start with, (4+2 vs 6+2), but every cut bar the Aces of Hearts and Clubs is immediately helpful. Very fortunate with the cut of a six.

   

Saturday 5:52 AM

Just in case a 3 or 6 gets cut. Peg if possible.

   

Saturday 8:24 AM

Kept the most combined points today. Like 4-4 in my crib a little better than J-J. Will take pegs when I can.

   

Saturday 11:17 AM

Two more points in the hand vs a 3 or 6 cut. I don't know. There might be times I would do it. But I'm with mfetch, J,J in the crib holds no interest to me today. But luck smiled on the gamblers today.

   

Saturday 1:54 PM

4-5-J-J (2-4), 2-5-J-J (4-4) or 2-4-4-5 (J-J)?:

4-5-J-J: 6pts + 4½pts (Schell: 4.52) = 10½pts

2-5-J-J: 6pts + 5¾pts (Schell: 5.63) = 11¾pts

2-4-4-5: 4pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.33) = 9¼pts

Potential:

4-5-J-J: Improves with AAAA, 3333, 44, 555, 6666 + 14xXs = 31 cuts = 31/46 = 67.4% up to 9/10/11/12pts with AAAA, 3333, 555, 6666, JJ = 17 cuts. Plus 21 spades and diamonds for 1pt extra for his nob = 21/46 = 0.46pt.

2-5-J-J: Improves with 222, 3333, 555, 8888 + 14xXs = 28 cuts = 31/46 = 60.9% up to 10/12pts with 3333, 555, JJ = 9 cuts. Plus 21 spades and diamonds for 1pt extra for his nob = 21/46 = 0.46pt.

2-4-4-5: Improves with 222, 3333, 44, 555, 6666, 7777, 8888, 9999 + 14xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 8/12/14pts with 222, 3333, 44, 555, 6666, 9999 = 20 cuts.

Pegging:

I think 2-4-4-5 will peg best with a 3-card magic eleven.

Position:

We need 33pts in two deals to get into position for our next deal so I'll play Offense for the pegging.

Summary:

2-5-J-J starts with 2½pts more than 2-4-4-5 and also has nearly an extra ½pt potential for the nob. It does not have as many cuts for improvement and not as high a maximum but 2-5-J-J still has 9 cuts for 10/12pts. I don't think 2-4-4-5 will catch up the difference so I'll throw 4-4.

   

Saturday 2:13 PM

At 63*-69 playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total____W4 %____W5 %
2-4-4-5___7.74+3.70+5.01=16.45____20.4____14.6
2-5-J-J___8.28+2.61+5.48=16.37____22.3____18.4
4-5-J-J___8.76+2.87+4.26=15.89____20.3____16.1

Offense_______L4 %____L5 %
2-4-4-5_______48.3____69.1
2-5-J-J_______44.3____65.1
4-5-J-J_______45.8____67.6

2-4-4-5 is best for expected averages by 0.08pt but 2-5-J-J is significantly higher for Win %s and lower for Loss %s. As we're approaching a critical board position I'll decide on Win/Loss %s and select 4-4 to discard.

After the 6 cut I'll play Optimally to the lead (cautious offense).

   

Saturday 4:58 PM

Had run queries on this hand over the years on Halscrib, REX, and Cribbage Prof. Those queries showed that starting with four points 2-4-4-5 had greater value (pegs, hand and crib scores),than starting with 2-5-J-J. That's borne out by HalscribCLX analysis above. At hole 63 have gone with 8 points to start (six in hand and two in crib). If had been hole 69-73, would have played the 2-4-4-5. With opponent already at 69, will take any pegs offered.