February 7, 2019

*** This hand was suggested by ccjohnson
0*-0  ?
61%
26%
5%
2%
1%
1%
0%
0%
Total votes: 178

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dec
4372 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Thursday 3:06 AM
Another time it seems to get a five cut the other is that A-2-3 double run arrangement. Sixteen faces. Perhaps get the aces for three. dec
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glmccuskey
2916 votes

Joined: April 2011

   
Thursday 3:48 AM
I’ll try to run my aces at the end of the count.
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dgergens
248 votes

Joined: January 2018

   
Thursday 4:07 AM
Start of the game, couldn't resist (reasonable) shot at 12 points. So I gambled away 2 sure points.
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Rosemarie44
1116 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Thursday 4:10 AM
Expected averages favor tossing 2-7. This hand has more cuts for improvement for 8 or 12 points than tossing A-A in our crib.
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james500
2041 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Thursday 5:00 AM
Starting with two more points before the cut, and every cut bar an X will help me somewhere. That's roughly two-thirds of the deck working for me.

7 response to an X lead.
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Gougie00
3798 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Thursday 6:04 AM
Looking for a face in the crowd. Sometimes a 5 isnt everyone's friend. Peg aggressive because we'll be short.
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JRCeagle78
628 votes

Joined: June 2016

   
Thursday 7:28 AM
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cwed
752 votes

Joined: October 2014

Thursday 10:40 AM
I'd much rather hold 6 total points (4+2) than 4 out of the gate. Thus, I toss A-A and hold 2-4-4-7, which can still cut to a dozen. With the 5-cut, I now have 6 in the hand and likely 6 in the crib, so I will play defense to the lead, if possible.
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cwed
752 votes

Joined: October 2014

Thursday 10:40 AM
I'd much rather hold 6 total points (4+2) than 4 out of the gate. Thus, I toss A-A and hold 2-4-4-7, which can still cut to a dozen. With the 5-cut, I now have 6 in the hand and likely 6 in the crib, so I will play defense to the lead, if possible.
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joekayak
656 votes

Joined: May 2016

   
Thursday 11:58 AM
Double nickels is rarely wrong. Try to stack the Aces. Not a great start.
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Coeurdelion
3744 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Thursday 1:15 PM
A choice between 2-4-4-7 (A-A) and A-A-4-4 (2-7):

2-4-4-7: 4pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.38) = 9¼pts

A-A-4-4: 4pts + 4pts (Schell: 3.81) = 8pts

Potential:

2-4-4-7: Improves with 222, 3333, 44, 5555, 6666, 777, 8888, 9999 = 28 cuts = 60.9% up to 8/10/12pts with 222, 3333, 44, 777, 9999 = 16 cuts.

A-A-4-4: Improves with AA, 44, 5555, 6666, 777, 9999 + 16xXs = 35 cuts = 35/46 = 76.1% up to 8/12pts with AA, 44, 6666, 9999 + 16xXs = 28 cuts.

Pegging:

I think A-A-4-4 will peg slightly better than 2-4-4-7.

Position:

As First Dealer I'll play Defense. Positional hole is 8pts but I'll try to score 16pts or more reasonably safely.

Summary:

2-4-4-7 starts with 1¼pts more than A-A-4-4 but the latter has more cuts for improvement and 28 cuts for 8-12pts compared to 16 and a lot more that score 12pts (16 vs. 2) so I'll throw the not so helpful 2-7 but hope for a dozen.
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HalscribCLX
3512 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Thursday 1:51 PM
At 0*-0 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Pone's
Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total___W9 %____W10 %
A-A-4-4___8.13+(-2.17)+3.85=9.81____35.9____48.6
2-4-4-7___6.39+(-2.09)+4.90=9.20____34.0____47.5

Defense______L9 %____L10 %
A-A-4-4______26.6____25.5
2-4-4-7______26.0____26.3

A-A-4-4 is better for expected averages by 0.61pt and is slightly better for Win %s and Loss %s. So I'll select 2-7 to discard.

After the 5 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.
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Ras2829
3282 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Thursday 3:08 PM
Potential hand score and slight pegging edge are more than enough to offset the larger crib to expect with A-A discard. And it's def., def., def., and paly off the lead except for an Ace or four lead. Would pair either of those. A small card lead other than A or four causes more concern. If trey is led, play AH, if deuce lead, play 4H. Otherwise, play off. BTW in case there are those with lingering interest relative to yesterday's puzzle, at hole 98 would have retained the dozen which puts me at 110. Might get a peg or two. That would give me good chance to win game with first count. If at 88 would have discarded 8-J, retained 5-7-7-8, led the7.
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