February 7, 2019

*** This hand was suggested by ccjohnson
0*-0  ?
61%
26%
5%
2%
1%
1%
0%
0%
Total votes: 178
dec
6351 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Thursday 3:06 AM
Another time it seems to get a five cut the other is that A-2-3 double run arrangement. Sixteen faces. Perhaps get the aces for three. dec
glmccuskey
4094 votes

Joined: April 2011
 
 
 
Thursday 3:48 AM
I’ll try to run my aces at the end of the count.
dgergens
938 votes

Joined: January 2018
 
 
 
Thursday 4:07 AM
Start of the game, couldn't resist (reasonable) shot at 12 points. So I gambled away 2 sure points.
dgergens says: Does anyone else ever find the Liam Brown discard analyzer to have some glitches? I just went over to check what it suggests. It suggests the 2,7 as the best discard. But if you look at the detailed analysis it says the min points for Crib is 0, the min points for Hand is 4, but the min points for Hand + Crib is 6. How can that be? I\'ve found anomalies like this a number of times that I\'ve used this site. If I were in the middle of the game, A,A probably would have been my preferred discard.
james500 says: Hiya, hope you\'re well. Can\'t talk with any authority about that site, but it is true to say that the minimum hand value is 4, crib value is 0, but hand and crib is 6. Cards that help the hand do not necessarily help the crib, and vice-versa, but all cuts help somewhere.
Rosemarie44 says: Hi: I have noticed that sometimes average hand and average crib do not add up but is off by only a point or so. In this case the minimum hand is 4 points and the crib is 0 as it stands now. As James says all cuts help hand and/or crib. In this case, 2, 7, 6, 8 will give the crib 2 points. Of course the pone\'s toss counts in here somewhere, too, I believe.
Guest says: Thanks James/Rosemarie. The one point differences are usually rounding. The min values represent the worst case scenarios, so here worst case crib is zero and worst case hand is 4, so hypothetically, if you got the worst crib and worst hand, the worst case Hand + Crib is the sum of the two worst cases. I think James is alluding to situation where any cut that makes one hand a worst case, will help the other hand. But in this case, a 3 cut will not help the hand and will not help the crib (based on 2 cards we know are there). Anyway, doesn\'t seem right.
wasa says: Debating guest, if the cut is a 3, and I tossed a 2, then the crib is guaranteed to be at least 2 points, as a crib/hand with a 2-3 can never be zero points.
james500 says: Hi all, an interesting discussion taking place here. To the guest above who said \"...worst case crib is zero and worst case hand is 4, so hypothetically, if you got the worst crib and worst hand...\", with this arrangement of cards, you cannot have both worst outcomes. If the hand is 4, the crib must be 2+; if the crib is blank, the hand must be 6+.
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Thursday 4:10 AM
Expected averages favor tossing 2-7. This hand has more cuts for improvement for 8 or 12 points than tossing A-A in our crib.
james500
3916 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Thursday 5:00 AM
Starting with two more points before the cut, and every cut bar an X will help me somewhere. That's roughly two-thirds of the deck working for me.

7 response to an X lead.
james500 says: Really like this new \"dark theme\" option. Thanks Matt.
Gougie00
5723 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Thursday 6:04 AM
Looking for a face in the crowd. Sometimes a 5 isnt everyone's friend. Peg aggressive because we'll be short.
JRCeagle78
1054 votes

Joined: June 2016
 
 
 
Thursday 7:28 AM
cwed
1355 votes

Joined: October 2014
 
 
 
Thursday 10:40 AM
I'd much rather hold 6 total points (4+2) than 4 out of the gate. Thus, I toss A-A and hold 2-4-4-7, which can still cut to a dozen. With the 5-cut, I now have 6 in the hand and likely 6 in the crib, so I will play defense to the lead, if possible.
cwed
1355 votes

Joined: October 2014
 
 
 
Thursday 10:40 AM
I'd much rather hold 6 total points (4+2) than 4 out of the gate. Thus, I toss A-A and hold 2-4-4-7, which can still cut to a dozen. With the 5-cut, I now have 6 in the hand and likely 6 in the crib, so I will play defense to the lead, if possible.
cwed says: Hmm, looks like I\'m repeating myself. Don\'t know why that happened--nor why my choice of 2-4-4-7 isn\'t showing up.
Guest says: Tommy two times
joekayak
1873 votes

Joined: May 2016
 
 
 
Thursday 11:58 AM
Double nickels is rarely wrong. Try to stack the Aces. Not a great start.
Coeurdelion
5589 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Thursday 1:15 PM
A choice between 2-4-4-7 (A-A) and A-A-4-4 (2-7):

2-4-4-7: 4pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.38) = 9¼pts

A-A-4-4: 4pts + 4pts (Schell: 3.81) = 8pts

Potential:

2-4-4-7: Improves with 222, 3333, 44, 5555, 6666, 777, 8888, 9999 = 28 cuts = 60.9% up to 8/10/12pts with 222, 3333, 44, 777, 9999 = 16 cuts.

A-A-4-4: Improves with AA, 44, 5555, 6666, 777, 9999 + 16xXs = 35 cuts = 35/46 = 76.1% up to 8/12pts with AA, 44, 6666, 9999 + 16xXs = 28 cuts.

Pegging:

I think A-A-4-4 will peg slightly better than 2-4-4-7.

Position:

As First Dealer I'll play Defense. Positional hole is 8pts but I'll try to score 16pts or more reasonably safely.

Summary:

2-4-4-7 starts with 1¼pts more than A-A-4-4 but the latter has more cuts for improvement and 28 cuts for 8-12pts compared to 16 and a lot more that score 12pts (16 vs. 2) so I'll throw the not so helpful 2-7 but hope for a dozen.
HalscribCLX
5312 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Thursday 1:51 PM
At 0*-0 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Pone's
Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total___W9 %____W10 %
A-A-4-4___8.13+(-2.17)+3.85=9.81____35.9____48.6
2-4-4-7___6.39+(-2.09)+4.90=9.20____34.0____47.5

Defense______L9 %____L10 %
A-A-4-4______26.6____25.5
2-4-4-7______26.0____26.3

A-A-4-4 is better for expected averages by 0.61pt and is slightly better for Win %s and Loss %s. So I'll select 2-7 to discard.

After the 5 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.
Ras2829
5145 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Thursday 3:08 PM
Potential hand score and slight pegging edge are more than enough to offset the larger crib to expect with A-A discard. And it's def., def., def., and paly off the lead except for an Ace or four lead. Would pair either of those. A small card lead other than A or four causes more concern. If trey is led, play AH, if deuce lead, play 4H. Otherwise, play off. BTW in case there are those with lingering interest relative to yesterday's puzzle, at hole 98 would have retained the dozen which puts me at 110. Might get a peg or two. That would give me good chance to win game with first count. If at 88 would have discarded 8-J, retained 5-7-7-8, led the7.