January 16, 2019

*** This hand was suggested by Ras2829
23*-26  ?
31%
29%
20%
16%
1%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 183
dec
6326 votes

Joined: April 2008

 
 
 
Wednesday 3:13 AM
J-7 vs keeping a defensive eleven and good cards to my crib. I will try to bulk up my crib. I will try defense on the pegging. dec
Rosemarie44
2051 votes

Joined: March 2016

 
 
 
Wednesday 3:32 AM
I chose expected averages. There is about a point difference between 7-J and J-Q to our crib. This hand starts with 5 points ( a potential for 12 points) vs. 3 points and a potential for 10 points.
wasa says: Hi Rosemarie44. C. Liam Brown claims that both discards yield 11.4 points. Is your 1 point difference a result of RAS discard tables vs Mr. Brown's calculations?
Rosemarie44 says: Since this is a Ras puzzle I used his values. 7-J is valued at 3.83 vs. Liam's 3.40. J-Q is valued at 4.83 vs. Liam's 4.80. If I were to add Liams figures for 7-J they would be 8.00 hand plus 3.40 for the crib, a total of 11.40. Liam's figures for J-Q they would be 6.50 for the hand and 4.80 for the crib a total of 11.30 not 11.40 as stated on his site.
wasa
2990 votes

Joined: November 2014

 
 
 
Wednesday 4:59 AM
I suspect RAS wanted me to consider tossing the J-Q and keeping 3 points instead of 5, but I hate breaking up runs. Besides, both 7 and J are key connecting cards for my crib. I suspect the 2-3-4-7 will peg slightly better, but not sure if enough to start with 3 vs 5 points.
Inushtuk1 says: Hi wasa. Respectfully; tossing (J-Q) does not break up the run here. It just sacrifices a (15-2). I suspect Halscrib’s analysis will have the two most popular options very close, with 2-3-4-7 having a slight advantage in the pegging. I hope the cribbot makes an appearance today. I am anxious to see what it will say.
wasa says: Rereading my comment, not sure what I was thinking when I mentioned breaking up a run. Maybe I pondered 2-3-J-Q and tossing 4-7? The joys of early morning thoughts.
zeke76
1366 votes

Joined: August 2018

 
 
 
Wednesday 5:03 AM
Keep the run and magic 11. Seed the crib with a possible run.
I also considered pitching 7-J to keep more points in the hand.
Gougie00
5701 votes

Joined: March 2008

 
 
 
Wednesday 5:11 AM
Another Meh hand. I'll keep my sure 5. Keep the 3-4 intact for a 5 trap.

james500
3895 votes

Joined: June 2013

 
 
 
Wednesday 5:58 AM
No synergy between a Jack and a 7, but I don't want to reduce my hand score for either of J-Q or 4-7.


On another note altogether, it's been many moons since we heard from JQT on here. I remember that someone asked about him recently, but I don't know if there was any response to the query?
Rosemarie44 says: Hi James: Inushtuk sent JQT an email s short while ago. He is not well and will be back on the site when he is feeling better (or something to that effect).
Inushtuk1 says: Hi James. I hope you are enjoying 2019. See my late post last Sunday re John. He is struggling right now. But he’s a fighter, and I hope this site will hear from him soon.
james500 says: Thank you both.
Inushtuk1
1463 votes

Joined: July 2016

 
 
 
Wednesday 8:20 AM
Wow! What a great puzzle. 2-3-4-7 improves on every cut, but sacrifices two starting points. 2-3-4-Q improves on every cut but a 7. And that adds direct value to the crib. the (7-J) are suited. Does that make a difference? Slightly. 2-3-4-Q has a “Sweet Sixteen”. 2-3-4-7 has a “Magic Eleven”. Solely because I know Ras has extolled the virtues of (J-Q,) and to a lesser extent (10-J), I’m keeping the smaller cards.

The K gives me only 9 known points. I’ll play offense to the lead. My target is 34 or better I’m only guaranteed to be at 32 if my math is correct.
glmccuskey
4074 votes

Joined: April 2011

 
 
 
Wednesday 9:05 AM
Read Inushtuk1 (Mike) above me. Well said.
JRCeagle78
1054 votes

Joined: June 2016

 
 
 
Wednesday 9:35 AM
With Kings being one of the discards used more often, I will keep the J-Q together in my crib. The 2-3-4-7 should be a much better pegging option. This is not a great scoring hand so I will tray a defensive strategy with the "eleven".

If this hand had been reversed I would have no qualms about tossing Q-7 into the opponents crib.
mfetchCT425
1382 votes

Joined: February 2009

 
 
 
Wednesday 9:42 AM
Will keep points intact in hand in this (small hand rule) situation. Tossed suited 7-J, both key connecting cards, to the crib. After seeing cut card will take pegs when I can without being overly aggressive at this board position.
cwed
1355 votes

Joined: October 2014

 
 
 
Wednesday 10:25 AM
Several players today mention that holding 2-3-4-7 is a sacrifice of two points, but any run of 2-3-4, regardless of the fourth card in your hand, is guaranteed to have at least five points, so you are not sacrificing anything by keeping the 7. The only sacrifice comes if a 2 or 3 is the cut card, which would yield 12 points when holding 2-3-4-X but only 10 points with 2-3-4-7. In my thinking, 2-3-4-7 is a superior hold for two reasons: (a) you are tossing the connectors J-Q in your own crib and (b) you are holding a magic 11.
Inushtuk1 says: That’s what *I* should have said. ; - )
Inushtuk1 says: Note to self. Do not use contractions on this site.
cribbagepogo says: ;#%&!! To swear.
Guest says: I did the same thing, oh super mentor. Maybe things are sinking in (even though I can't get points at club!) S :)
Coeurdelion
5573 votes

Joined: October 2007

 
 
 
Wednesday 12:46 PM
I think its between 2-3-4-Q (7-J), 2-3-4-7 (J-Q) and 2-3-J-Q (4-7):

2-3-4-Q: 5pts + 3½pts (Schell: 3.53) = 8½pts

2-3-4-7: 3pts + 4¾pts (Schell: 4.81) = 7¾pts

2-3-J-Q: 4pts + 4pts (Schell: 3.72) = 8pts

Potential:

2-3-4-Q: Improves with AAAA, 222, 333, 444, 5555, 6666, 8888, 9999 + 14xXs = 43 cuts = 43/46 = 93.5% up to 8/9/10/12pts with AAAA, 222, 333, 444, 5555, QQQ = 20 cuts.

2-3-4-7: Improves with AAAA, 222, 333, 444, 5555, 6666, 777, 8888, 9999 + 14xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 6/7/10pts with AAAA, 222, 333, 444, 5555, 6666, 8888 = 25 cuts.

2-3-J-Q: Improves with AAAA, 222, 333, 444, 5555 + 14xXs = 31 cuts = 31/46 = 67.4% up to 7/8/9pts with all cuts.

Pegging:

I think 2-3-4-Q and 2-3-4-7 will peg slightly better than 2-3-J-Q.

Position:

It looks like we were First Dealer so I'll continue playing Defense.

Summary.

2-3-4-Q starts with ½/¾pt more and has more cuts for improvement than 2-3-J-Q but slightly less than 2-3-4-7 and an appreciably best maximum so I'll select 7-J to discard.
HalscribCLX
5296 votes

Joined: February 2008

 
 
 
Wednesday 12:58 PM
At 23*-26 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Pone's
Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total___W7 %____W8 %
2-3-4-Q___8.02+(-2.15)+3.46=9.33____25.5____42.0
2-3-4-J___8.24+(-2.20)+3.16=9.20____25.9____42.3
2-3-4-7___6.50+(-2.13)+4.75=9.12____25.5____40.7
2-3-J-Q___7.20+(-2.22)+3.78=8.76____23.5____40.7

Defense______L7 %____L8 %
2-3-4-Q______26.3____34.0
2-3-4-J______26.4____33.7
2-3-4-7______28.0____35.7
2-3-J-Q______24.3____34.1

2-3-4-Q is best for expected averages by 0.13pt over 2-3-4-J dut 2-3-4-J is slightly best for both Win %s and Loss %s. However at this early stage of the game I'll decide on expected averages and select 7-J to discard.

After the K cut I'll play Defense to the lead.
Ras2829
5125 votes

Joined: November 2008

 
 
 
Wednesday 8:44 PM
See no reason to play defense here from the get-go. Opponent at hole 26 averages 9-10 as non-dealer, and needs 17 to reach 2nd street CPZ 43-47. Dealing from hole 23, average score of 16 puts RAS at 39. Seems to me that 2 or more pegs are substantially to my benefit. Would avoid a play which would seem to give non-dealer 5-6 pegs. Would play off the lead as that presentation is often heavily leveraged. So reckon my choice then would be Optimal shaded towards offense. In either optimal or offensive pegging strategies, holding 2-3-4-7 is correct, has the greater combined value.
Ras2829 says: For what it's worth, my Cribbage Prof program downloaded to Windows 10 shows offense to be the dealer's strategy at holes 23*-26.
Ras2829 says: If choosing def., def., def. holding 2-3-4-Q with 7-J has the edge by a few hundredths. See HalscribCLX above for those numbers.
Ras2829 says: If playing the hand in the manner I've chosen, note the X-point cards. If your discard should be 10-K, 10-Q, or Q-K, discard 7-X. This works well with J-Q and 10-J. It's a push with the J-K. Note that in all these cases ,dealer is providing the Jack to the crib. That is key as non-dealer will seldom discard the Jack.