January 14, 2019
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Total votes: 173 |
dec 6328 votes Joined: April 2008 |
    Monday 3:23 AM
I want that first choice instead. 8 7 6 5 2, preferred cuts. Might still be both on first street after this hand. Seven lead play on probably. dec |
Rosemarie44 2051 votes Joined: March 2016 |
    Monday 3:51 AM
I am at a loss with today's hand. It doesn't make sense to me toss 7-7 or 3-3 to opponent and only hold 6 or 4 points respectively.
Using Ras's value for the discards, 3-3 comes out ahead for expected averages and the most cuts for improvement. Took the really safe decision and tossed 3-9 but is that the way to go? Ras2829 says: Hi Rosemarie44: It's absolutely amazing how things sot out with this game and analysis of such. Your choice reduces your chance to lose! Does that mean that you've increased your chances to win? No! You decrease your chances to win as well. Doesn't that seem counter-intuitive? |
james500 3896 votes Joined: June 2013 |
    Monday 4:52 AM
Plenty of helpful cuts for me, and plenty of negative delta for Dealer.
6+7+3=16 so maybe: 6(6)-X(16)-7(23)-5(28)-3(31/2). If Dealer has no 5 only X's, then: 6(6)-X(16)-7(23)-go-7(30/2+1). |
Gougie00 5703 votes Joined: March 2008 |
    Monday 5:50 AM
I need the points ... I think ...
The next sound you hear is the crib going BOOM. A chilly 13 degrees here in Northern Massachusetts. Guest says: This is the weather channel and a cribbage game broke out |
glmccuskey 4076 votes Joined: April 2011 |
    Monday 6:38 AM
I need a few points in this position so it’s 3-3 not 7-7 for me. I’ll lead the seven of spades and will be forced to mix it up if my opponent has middle cards. |
JRCeagle78 1054 votes Joined: June 2016 |
    Monday 7:05 AM
I may not get to the board position I need, but I can hopefully slow the dealer down by blanking his crib. The King may be just what the doctor ordered. Lead the 7. |
IndianaJared 30 votes Joined: December 2017 |
    Monday 7:21 AM
I need to make sure and hit my par and that means giving my opponent a discard that I dread... |
zeke76 1368 votes Joined: August 2018 |
    Monday 7:39 AM
Not much of net difference between 7-7 and 3-9, but 7-7 is a smidgen better. |
Inushtuk1 1465 votes Joined: July 2016 |
    Monday 8:19 AM
It looks like we were game’s starting Dealer, and scored less than average, while our opponent did better. We are + 5. S/he is - 6. Optimal strategy I think means making sure we reach 18 or better as Dealer next hand.
Look at it this way. Even if the Dealer scores 5 over average because of our generous toss, we know we will still have board position with a guaranteed 6 points minimum. A very tenuous board position. But board position none the less. Of course if s/he scores 24 in the crib... But let’s not go there. After giving away a pair of key connectors; something I rarely do; it’s defense for me. I’ll lead the 3s, and fake the flush with the 9 next if it seems safe. |
horus93 1273 votes Joined: December 2017 |
    Monday 8:58 AM
Minority report: I thought 3-9 was too defensive, 3-3 and 7-7 too dangerous. |
Andy (muesli64) 2221 votes Joined: August 2009 |
    Monday 9:39 AM
I don't think 3 - 9 unsuited is too defensive at all. More like paying a small insurance premium against something unpleasant happening!! |
joekayak 1873 votes Joined: May 2016 |
    Monday 1:27 PM
I'm with glmccuskey. Want to keep 4 points to insure getting to 17. Dealer is about 5 short. Hopefully that will give my 3-3 in his crib a cushion. james500 says: Hiya Joe. Having your train of thought match Gary's is always a sign of choosing wisely, but wanting to keep four, what's your view on 3-3-7-7 instead? I would guess that 6-9 is a safer discard than a pair of threes. |
Coeurdelion 5574 votes Joined: October 2007 |
    Monday 3:37 PM
Three ways to go I think 3-3-6-9 (7-7), 6-7-7-9 (3-3) or 3-6-7-7 (3-9):
3-3-6-9: 6pts - 6¾pts (Schell: 7.14) = -½pt 6-7-7-9: 4pts - 6½pts (Schell: 6.68) = -2½pts 3-6-7-7: 2pts - 4¾pts (Schell: 4.87) = -2¾pts Potential: 3-3-6-9: Improves with 33, 666, 999 = 8 cuts = 8/46 = 17.4% up to 12/14/16pts with all cuts. 6-7-7-9: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 5555, 666, 77, 8888, 999 = 24 cus = 24/46 = 52.2% up to 8/10/16pts with 2222, 666, 77, 8888, 999 = 16 cuts. 3-6-7-7: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 33, 5555, 666, 77, 8888, 999 = 26 cuts = 26/46 = 56.5% up to 6/12pts with 2222, 5555, 666, 77 = 13 cuts. Pegging: I think probaly 3-6-7-7 will peg best perhaps playing offense or defense. Position: It looks like we were First Pone. I'll continue to play Defense. Summary: 6-7-7-9 and 3-6-7-7 both have more cuts for improvement but 3-3-6-9 starts with 2/2¼pts more with 8 cuts for 12-16pts. Playing Defense 3-3-6-9 should also peg well. So although its a very risky discard I'll throw 7-7. |
Ras2829 5126 votes Joined: November 2008 |
    Monday 4:55 PM
This is the second hand from a game in which I had the opening deal. Picked up these cards and gasped audibly. How do you play def., def., def.? As dealer of first hand, needed 7 points to have 50/50 chance to win. So it's keep six points and discard the dangerous 7-7. At least the King starter card seems not to be of help to that powerful pair. As Inushtuk1 points out, opponent has the deal 5-6 holes short; the 7-7 averages 6.925 to opponent crib. RAS wants to deal the next hand from minimum of 18. Am there so will lead 3s. If choosing an offense pegging strategy, would have led the 6 and retained the treys. |
HalscribCLX 5297 votes Joined: February 2008 |
    Monday 4:58 PM
At 13-12* playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:
________________Dlr's Defense___Hand__Pegs____Crib____Total___W8 %____W9 % 3-3-6-9___7.35+(-2.57)+(-6.50)=(-1.72)__30.6____41.8 3S-6-7-7__4.91+(-2.78)+(-4.28)=(-2.15)__25.3____39.5 3-3-7-9___5.79+(-2.28)+(-5.75)=(-2.25)__26.2____39.0 6-7-7-9___6.78+(-2.72)+(-6.42)=(-2.36)__29.5____40.7 Defense______L8 %____L9 % 3-3-6-9______32.3____34.2 3S-6-7-7_____26.8____34.4 3-3-7-9______30.5____36.2 6-7-7-9______32.1____35.2 3-3-6-9 is best for expected averages by 0.43pt and it is appreciably best for Win %s although 3-6-7-7 is best for Loss %s because of the safer 3-9 discard. Even so I'll select 7-7 to discard. After the K cut I'll lead the 3S and play Defense: Lead_________Dealer's Pegging Pts. 3_________________(-2.10) 9_________________(-2.57) 6_________________(-2.68) |