January 13, 2019

*** This hand was suggested by Gougie00
28*-21  ?
36%
22%
19%
10%
3%
3%
1%
1%
0%
Total votes: 172
Andy (muesli64)
2221 votes

Joined: August 2009

 
 
 
Sunday 3:08 AM
Do you know - I don't care!! Love either throw! Try 3 - 5 and go for 24. But keeping the flush is great too.
dec
6327 votes

Joined: April 2008

 
 
 
Sunday 3:29 AM
How about a flush in the crib instead? I like to think even if you have doubts about this discard everything still works out. Play on or do you still bank on a decent crib and play off? Depends on the lead card. dec
cribbagepogo says: Get a dollar from the skunk fund at the club!!!
Guest says: like most clubs we have pools. A skunk gets your opponent to drop fifty cents into the 28/29 jar. Get a 28 you get half of it 29 all of it. We even has the player getting the skunk throwing it in the pot for his opponent. dec
Rosemarie44
2051 votes

Joined: March 2016

 
 
 
Sunday 3:42 AM
I too like either toss 3-5 or 5-6. Tossing 3-5 leaves a hand starting with 12 points and has more cuts for improvement. This is the better hand but 5-6 has a better value than 3-5.
james500
3895 votes

Joined: June 2013

 
 
 
Sunday 4:41 AM
I'll hold my hands up, I didn't notice the 3-5 option at all, just thought it was a choice between 4-5-5-6 (3-6) for twelve, or the flush with (5h-6h) for 10+2. Luckily, I think I got away with it.
Gougie00
5702 votes

Joined: March 2008

 
 
 
Sunday 5:34 AM
I was dealt this beauty at my club, and I tossed the suited 5-6. There was some discussion that I should have tossed the 3-5 instead. I recall a 3 was cut and I gained a whole street on one hand. I figure after a week of clunker hands, everyone deserves a dynamite hand that you cant mess up.

11 degrees and bone chilling cold here in Northern Massachusetts.
Guest says: Two degrees and sunny here in Maine.
Guest says: Nice here in Anartica.
glmccuskey
4075 votes

Joined: April 2011

 
 
 
Sunday 5:41 AM
Nice problem to have. Keep the dozen. Optimal pegging.
wasa
2991 votes

Joined: November 2014

 
 
 
Sunday 9:01 AM
Tossed the 5 in my crib, and trying to cut for 24. I like this hand.
Coeurdelion
5573 votes

Joined: October 2007

 
 
 
Sunday 9:41 AM
4-5-6-6 (3-5S) looks favorite but how about 3-4-5S-6S (5-6):

4-5-6-6: 12pts + 6pts (Schell: 5.97) = 18pts

3-4-5S-6S: 10pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.63) = 16½pts

Potential:

4-5-6-6: Improves with 333, 444, 55, 66, 7777, 9999 + 16xXs = 34 cuts = 34/46 = 73.9% up to 16/21/24pts with 333, 444, 55, 66, 9999 = 14 cuts.

3-4-5S-6S: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 333, 444, 55, 66, 7777, 8888, 9999 + 16xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 13/18/20 with 2222, 333, 444, 55, 66, 7777 = 18 cuts. Plus 9 spades for 1pt more for the flush = 9/46 = 0.20pt.

Pegging:

I think the flush will peg a little better.

Position:

If we were First Dealer we've improved our relative position. I'll continue to play Defense.

Summary:

4-5-6-6 starts with 1½pts more and although it doesn't have as many cuts for improvement it has a better maximum and 14 cuts for 16-24pts. So I'll throw the suited 3-5.
Ras2829
5125 votes

Joined: November 2008

 
 
 
Sunday 11:04 AM
Hold 12 points and discard suited 3-5 allows to start with 14 points. That will favor this choice by a point. It's def., def., def. for me as like my advantage. Expect six points in crib with 3s-5s discard witthe 7s on the deck. So it goes. Go BRADY!!!
Guest says: Yeah he doesnt look like going off to cliff to me. Sorry Patriots haters it looks like another succussful year maybe? dec
HalscribCLX
5296 votes

Joined: February 2008

 
 
 
Sunday 11:26 AM
At 28*-21 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

__________________Pone's
Defense____Hand___Pegs___Crib_Total____W6 %____W7 %
4-5H-6-6___15.17+(-1.74)+5.81=19.24____23.9____63.6
3-4-5S-6S__13.76+(-2.22)+6.31=17.85____20.8____61.2
4-5-5-6H___15.83+(-2.00)+3.38=17.21____19.7____59.1

Defense________L6 %____L7 %
4-5H-6-6_______3.1_____10.8
3-4-5S-6S______2.9_____11.1
4-5-5-6H_______2.7_____10.6

4-5H-6-6 is best for expected averages by 1.39pts and it is also appreciably best for Win %s. 4-5-5-6H is very slightly best for Loss %s but deciding on the first two factors I'll select the suited 3-5 to discard.

After the 7 cut I'll play Optimally to the lead.
Inushtuk1
1464 votes

Joined: July 2016

 
 
 
Sunday 6:59 PM
The short hand method says this is best by one point. Defense to the lead, and my 6h on an X-card lead, to fake the flush after another X-card from Pone, for (31-2).

Btw: I received an email from our friend JQT yesterday. He is struggling, but will try to show more signs of life as soon as he is able. Keep him in your prayers people.
Ras2829 says: Thanks for the update. Always concerned with JQT's well-being. PraY I will!!!
Inushtuk1 says: Thank *you* Ras.