January 10, 2019

*** This hand was suggested by dgergens
70*-72  ?
80%
16%
1%
1%
Total votes: 171
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Thursday 3:03 AM
Here is a Flush, the higher expected averages, and starting with 8 points in the hand - is there any other choice?
james500 says: Hi. As Dealer, I don't think so. Imagine we were Pone though- KJ, KA, 9A, maybe even K-10 or K-9 are all feasible.
Rosemarie44 says: Hi James: Inushtuk to the rescue- I am still under the weather.
dec
6352 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Thursday 3:12 AM
We might have to play on here in the pegging after that cut, two or three might suffice. Your right I do not think K-5 or K-A "cut" it. Callastinics for the cribbage head. dec
joekayak
1873 votes

Joined: May 2016
 
 
 
Thursday 3:25 AM
It pays to flush.
Andy (muesli64)
2223 votes

Joined: August 2009
 
 
 
Thursday 4:27 AM
Got to be j-k throw. More points!
zeke76
1390 votes

Joined: August 2018
 
 
 
Thursday 4:59 AM
Seems clear today.
Gougie00
5724 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Thursday 4:59 AM
When in doubt, keep the flush
james500
3917 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Thursday 7:32 AM
I'd keep the flush too.

5-10-A sixteen might peg four holes:
X(10)-5(15/2)-5(20/2)-10-(30)-go-A(31/2).
horus93
1281 votes

Joined: December 2017
 
 
 
Thursday 8:34 AM
Why turn down a working flush?

I'd play on after the cut.
Inushtuk1
1481 votes

Joined: July 2016
 
 
 
Thursday 8:38 AM
No doubt about it. After the cut, with only 11 known points, take any pegs offered.

As to James500’s comments in Rosemarie’s post, if the score was 72-70*, I’d toss (K-10). Dealer has only marginal position and his crib must be balked.
Ras2829
5146 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Thursday 9:13 AM
It pays to flush! It does most of the time even when holding just an equal number of points. Here we are holding 8 point to begin with rather than 7 with 5-9-10-J. With opponent at 72, move on down the board. It's off., off., off. and play on the lead.
Ras2829 says: BTW for those who chose to retain 5-9-10-J they gave up a full point in direct hand value. In addition they chose to discard A-K 3.360 (553)instead of J-K 3.922 (1,430) for a loss of another .7 of a point in their crib.
JRCeagle78
1054 votes

Joined: June 2016
 
 
 
Thursday 9:37 AM
Ah red. My favorite color
wasa
3013 votes

Joined: November 2014
 
 
 
Thursday 10:45 AM
Most, if not all regular posters are going with the flush. Best all around.
Coeurdelion
5589 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Thursday 12:25 PM
The flush starts with 1pt more, has a better discard and will peg well so I think its a no-contest.
HalscribCLX
5312 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Thursday 1:33 PM
At 70*-72 playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Our
Offense___Hand__Pegs_Crib_Total____W4 %____W5 %
A-5-9-10__10.61+3.04+3.79=17.44____55.2____39.0
5-9-10-J___9.67+2.80+3.31=15.78____48.5____31.8
A-9-10-J___5.46+2.22+6.44=14.12____41.7____27.0
5-10-J-K___8.28+2.41+3.37=14.06____41.3____25.0

Offense_______L4 %____L5 %
A-5-9-10______58.9____43.8
5-9-10-J______59.0____50.5
A-9-10-J______56.5____55.6
5-10-J-K______59.2____57.3

The flush is 1.66pts best for expected averages and very much better for Win %s and Loss %s. So I'll select J-K to discard.

After the 6 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.
joekayak
1873 votes

Joined: May 2016
 
 
 
Thursday 1:34 PM
Tougher problem if deal position were reversed. But today, diamonds are my best friend.