December 2, 2018

*** This hand was suggested by troutsmith71 on ecribbage.com
8-11*  ?
40%
25%
20%
4%
3%
2%
1%
1%
Total votes: 137
Rosemarie44
2051 votes

Joined: March 2016

 
 
 
Sunday 3:14 AM
Deciding to toss A-2 or A-3 are very close in statistics. Expected averages favor slightly tossing A-2.
Like the 3 card next to the 5 card in hand due to its proximity. If I am correct, this hand has 12 cuts that increase the value of the hand to 9, 10, or 12 points.
Tossing A-3, this hand has 8 cuts increasing the value of the hand to 10 or 12 points.
Guest says: another no brainer
james500
3895 votes

Joined: June 2013

 
 
 
Sunday 4:15 AM
With 3h out of circulation, the chances that A-2 might form a run in the opponent's crib is lessened.
I'd planned to lead the 3, but after that cut I'll now lead 10h.
dec
6327 votes

Joined: April 2008

 
 
 
Sunday 4:51 AM
In the past I might have gone too defensive minded and went with 10-A. Starting with eight I better pick up the pace here. Playing a trend with crib distrubution not too tough here I am getting a lil more chancy the trade off I get back in return later. dec
Gougie00
5701 votes

Joined: March 2008

 
 
 
Sunday 5:43 AM
I love it when I guess right. A2 may not be worth anything in the other guy's crib.

Another soaking rain here in Massachusetts. Ugh. 5 degrees cooler, it would be snow.
Guest says: Don't forget to " pack the carr
Gougie00 says: Its Pahk the cah. We drop the R's. Do I have to explain what "wicked pissa" means?
Guest says: Tell Bob Childs I said hello
cribbagepogo says: Whoever you are. Login.
Jazzselke
2568 votes

Joined: March 2009

 
 
 
Sunday 7:22 AM
Too early in the game to get too defensive, so bye-bye A2. But the danger of the 23 toss by the dealer makes A2 more dangerous than it may seem. In a more critical position would throw A10 as mentioned by Dan #1.
Ras2829
5125 votes

Joined: November 2008

 
 
 
Sunday 7:30 AM
At 8 holes will toss the A-2, retaining the trey in closer proximity to the 5 spt. Will lead the 10h after cutting a 10. Dealer will often pair such a lead, playing percentages that all four cards of a rank would not be in play. Starting with six points would seem preferable to holding 2-3-5-X although think the call might be closer than it appears.
Ras2829 says: Wanted to comment further on crib values of A-3 and A-2 since Jazzselke opened the door. Both are a long ways down the list, scoring near five points or more on average. My empirical data which is based on actual discards in live play give a slight edge to the A-3 4.959 (2,066). the A-2 averages 5.174 (1,262). Why might the A-2 have the higher average in live play. The second most frequent dealer discard is 2-3, which often score 14 points with the A-2 on the table. Of course they flip-flop when tossed to own crib as n/d will seldom toss the 2-3, while frequently doing so to own crib. That piece of information and the choice of holding 2-3-5-X with A-10 discard made this an interesting puzzle from my perspective. Interesting to note the "no brainer" label above when there are already 7 choices posted.
JQT
4135 votes

Joined: October 2008

 
 
 
Sunday 7:45 AM
If the Deuce and/or 5 Card were Heart Suits, then perhaps we would have had quite a puzzle.
glmccuskey
4075 votes

Joined: April 2011

 
 
 
Sunday 8:39 AM
Looks like everyone is in agreement.
Andy (muesli64)
2221 votes

Joined: August 2009

 
 
 
Sunday 10:37 AM
Yes, thought A-10 throw not vastly different
joekayak
1873 votes

Joined: May 2016

 
 
 
Sunday 3:41 PM
OK. I'll speak for the minority. Went for defense. And ask why? From the look of the comments-too early for that? Wrong position?
james500 says: Hiya Joe. Fwiw, my reading of the situation is that we want to be at/beyond hole 17 at the conclusion of this hand, and so need to score 9+ here. The current dealer meanwhile is six holes off the pace, so there's no real need for defence. Whether 10-A is particularly defensive or not, I'm not sure. John Chambers certainly recommends the, (wide), X-A as a good defensive option in his book, but I've always felt X-middle was a safer option due to the lack of synergy between two distant cards with a sum>15.