November 4, 2018

*** This hand was suggested by Ras2829
60*-60  ?
37%
28%
25%
7%
0%
0%
Total votes: 153

Play this scenario out against a robot designed by Hal Mueller for eCribbage.com

Rosemarie44
1214 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Sunday 3:13 AM
Did everyone set their clocks back?

Out of all the choices for my crib: 7-8, A-4, or A-A, I decided to toss the 7-8 and hold A-A-4-9 which I believe might be the better pegger out of holding the other hands.

Let's see what other decide and of course, Ras will chime in later.



james500
2131 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Sunday 3:20 AM
Three options appeal to me: A-A, A-4 and 7-8.

4-7-8-9 (A-A) has a starting value of 5+2=7, but won't increase in value after cuts of 5,J,Q or K (16/46). Does comprise a 7-4 eleven and 7-9 sixteen for pegging though.

A-7-8-9 (A-4) will also be worth at least 5+2=7, and all cuts bar a 2 or 3 will work somehow. No eleven combo here, but still the 7-9 sixteen.

A-A-4-9 (7-8) only guarantees 4+2=6, but will improve after every cut bar a 3. Has two A-4 combos for an extra boost after an X cut. 9-A-A may score 31/4 in the pegging. X-middle is a common defensive discard by Pone, and any middle card to my crib will have synergy with the 7-8 I've put there.
Gougie00
3894 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Sunday 3:42 AM
7-8 gets no help, but A-4 always does.
dec
4470 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Sunday 4:18 AM
Crib, face cards odds for main hand and defensive (possibly offensive pegging ). I heard some players say this is where the game starts to happen more. dec
Andy (muesli64)
1519 votes

Joined: August 2009

   
Sunday 5:43 AM
Am I missing something?
JQT
2486 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Sunday 6:11 AM
I like the A-A-9 Magic Eleven as Dealer or Non Dealer.

Furthermore, while Toss A-4 would assure us of at least Two Points in our Crib, Toss 7-8 IS ALREADY Two Points in our Crib!

What's the diff? Well, Toss 7-8 will tend to average a full point MORE than Toss A-4, not because of the (15-2) potential, but because of the inherent RUN potential we get from "Touching" cards.

As an aside, Toss A-A would leave us with perhaps the most powerful Hand today, and therefore might compete well with Toss A-4.

However, as the Dealer in Cribbage, we are looking for the combined SYNERGY of Hand and Crib, and not simply the maximization of one of these. Go with Toss 7-8.
horus93
414 votes

Joined: December 2017

   
Sunday 6:34 AM
At 60*-60 it's -10/+0 and we ought to play off. Not only does this hand have the best averages, it should be less liable to get into trouble in the pegging.
horus93
414 votes

Joined: December 2017

   
Sunday 6:47 AM
Also don't think I'd play for the 9-A-A magic eleven. It's great for offense but risky with pone in marginal position. What if he holds an ace himself and snags our 31-4?
Jazzselke
1219 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Sunday 7:43 AM
Like the pegging prospects with AA49,and prefer 78 in the crib over AA, and to a lesser extent A4.Great puzzle Ras.
glmccuskey
2972 votes

Joined: April 2011

   
Sunday 8:58 AM
What dan said just above me.
Coeurdelion
3838 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Sunday 11:24 AM
A-A-4-9 (7-8) has a lot going for it but A-7-8-9 (A-4) and 4-7-8-9 (A-A) start with 1pt more:

A-A-4-9: 4pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.53) = 10½pts

A-7-8-9: 5pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.43) = 10¼pts

4-7-8-9: 5pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.38) = 10¼pts

Potential:

A-A-4-9: Improves with AA, 2222, 444, 5555, 6666, 999 + 16xXs = 36 cuts = 36/46 = 78.3% up to 8/12pts with AA, 444, 5555, 999 + 16xXs = 28 cuts.

A-7-8-9: Improves with AA, 5555, 6666, 777, 888, 999, 10101010 = 23 cuts = 23/46 = 50.0% up to 10/12pts with 6666, 777, 888, 999 = 13 cuts.

4-7-8-9: Improves with 2222, 3333, 444, 6666, 777, 888, 999, 10101010 = 28 cuts = 28/46 = 60.9% up to 8/9/10/12pts with 444, 6666, 777, 888, 999 = 16 cuts.

Pegging:

I think A-A-4-9 will peg best with 3 low cards and a 3-card magic eleven.

Position:

Pone only needs the average 10pts to reach 3rd street positional hole of 70pts so I'll play Defense to try to keep them short.

Summary:

A-A-4-9 starts with ¼pt more but according to Scell there is very little in it. However it also has more cuts for improvement and 28 cuts for 8/12pts. It should peg very well too so I'll throw the 7-8.
HalscribCLX
3601 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Sunday 11:56 AM
At 60*-60 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Pone's
Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total____W4 %____W5 %
A-A-4-9___6.96+(-2.39)+6.44=11.01____14.2____34.4
A-7-8-9___7.15+(-2.17)+5.28=10.26____11.9____33.3
4-7-8-9___7.20+(-2.11)+5.08=10.17____11.8____32.6

Defense_______L4 %____L5 %
A-A-4-9_______16.2____43.4
A-7-8-9_______14.9____42.8
4-7-8-9_______15.4____43.7

A-A-4-9 is best for expected averages by 0.75pt and is appreciably better for Win %s. It isn't lowest for Loss %s but even so I'll select 7-8 to discard.

After the 10 cut I'll play Optimally (cautious offense) to the lead.
Ras2829
3367 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Sunday 12:43 PM
Choosing an optimal strategy, would play the 9 on a Q/K lead. Will pick up 31-4 with the Aces in a high percentage of the cases. Most players will advance the count to 29 reducing the number of cards that are playable. Those who drop a smaller card on the 9 response avoid the 31-4. Might still give me three pegs though with the back-to-back Aces. Would you pair an Ace lead here? Note that this keep is the worst in terms of defensive pegging (see HaslcribCLX analysis).
HalscribCLX
3601 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Sunday 1:35 PM
If playing Optimally (cautious offense):

_______________Net
Optimal___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total
A-A-4-9___6.96+0.93+6.44=14.33
4-7-8-9___7.20+0.98+5.08=13.26
A-7-8-9___7.15+0.57+5.28=13.00

If playing Offense:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total
A-A-4-9___6.96+3.33+6.44=16.73
4-7-8-9___7.20+3.09+5.08=15.37
A-7-8-9___7.15+2.74+5.28=15.17

I am however recommending a Defense strategy.
HalscribCLX
3601 votes

Joined: February 2008

Sunday 2:08 PM
If playing Optimally (cautious offense):

_______________Net
Optimal___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total
A-A-4-9___6.96+0.93+6.44=14.33
4-7-8-9___7.20+0.98+5.08=13.26
A-7-8-9___7.15+0.57+5.28=13.00

If playing Offense:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total
A-A-4-9___6.96+3.33+6.44=16.73
4-7-8-9___7.20+3.09+5.08=15.37
A-7-8-9___7.15+2.74+5.28=15.17

I am however recommending a Defense strategy.