Friday 3:01 AM

It might look like that Ace could help us today, but if we just examine the case of a 5 Card Cut, the Jack could actually give our hand a greater boost!

And since a 5 Card Cut could really help the Opponent's Crib if it had two Face Cards, I am more inclined to pitch A-Q here.

The fact is, the Ace not only would add little to our potential hand, at best pushing us up to Eight or Nine Points, but it may also prove to be a pegging liability.

At the given score, there is virtually no way that Ace is going to push us all the way to Hole 44, so we are much better off here discarding a bit defensively.

I'll lead the Deuce.

   

Friday 3:10 AM

Agree with JQT's reasoning for tossing A-Q with dealer right next to us on the board. Also do not see that we can get to hole 44 this hand.

   

Friday 3:34 AM

The 2-6-7 fifteen are the only points in this hand, so those three cards will be kept. J-Q to my opponent must be the most dangerous discard of what's left, so it'll be A-X instead. The Jack is more valuable than the Queen, so by a process of elimination, I'll choose Q-A as my discard.

Maybe J(10)-5(15/2)-7(22)-go-6(28/3)-2(30/1) in the pegging? 4 pegs plus the 8 in hand gets me to 42.

   

Friday 3:55 AM

Cutting for an eight or considering there are still fourteen face cards in the deck? I lean on the latter more. Deucy loosey. dec

   

Friday 4:10 AM

GO wide? Everyone knows how to play the double runs. Crummy hands like this are a bigger challenge. Lead the 2

   

Friday 4:40 AM

It’s all out offense so I’ll keep the peggera. Nice cut. Lead the ace and take whatever pegs you can get.

   

Friday 4:55 AM

Wanted to keep the three black cards. The A-2 doesn't do as much for us (1 ended run) as the J-Q would do for the opponent's crib (2 ended run). I'm guessing the expected value of the J getting nobs is higher than the expected value of a 5 point crib flush given we are throwing two diamonds, but I didn't do the math on that.

   

Friday 5:24 AM

The question the submitter had might be: "Is holding A-2-6-7, discarding J-Q to opponent the thing to do in this position?" The answer is an emphatic "no". Toss the A-Q her and other places on the board as well. Might only hold the A-2-6-7 when it appeared that was the only way you could win the game either with first count or as dealer with a need to peg for a win. The rest has been said by others who have posted.

   

Friday 5:25 AM

Get the picture?

Friday 5:34 AM

Sometimes you just have to be patient.

   

Friday 10:15 AM

What James said is pretty much my thought process. I don't know positional strategy, so JQT's consideration, that that Ace is not going to push us all the way to Hole 44, is lost on me.

   

Friday 1:20 PM

On hindsight, the Ace would have given the pone another 2 points. Is it worth the risk tossing J-Q? HECK NO ! A 5 cut would have been disastrous. As pone, the best chance of blanking the crib is Q-A.

   

Friday 2:44 PM

2-6-7-J (A-Q) seems the most likely choice cut is it worth risking J-Q to retain the A for pegging and connecting with the 2:

2-6-7-J: 2pts - 4½pts (Schell: 4.33) = -2½pts

A-2-6-7: 2pts - 5¾pts (Schell: 5.46) = -3¾pts

Potential:

2-6-7-J: Improves with 222, 3333, 5555, 666, 777, 8888, 9999, JJJ = 28 cuts = 60.9% up to 6/7pts with 222, 5555, 666, 777, 8888 = 17 cuts. Plus 12 hearts for 1pt extra for his nob = 12/46 = 0.26pt.

A-2-6-7: Improves with AAA, 222, 3333, 5555, 666, 777, 8888, 9999 = 28 cuts = 60.9% up to 5/6/8/9pts with AAA, 222, 3333, 5555, 666, 777, 8888

Pegging:

A-2-6-7 should peg better than 2-6-7-J playing Offense. 2-6-7-J may peg better playing Defense.

Position:

We need 14pts to reach 2nd street positional hole so I'll play Offense to try to achieve this.

Summary:

2-6-7-J has a starting value 1¼pts higher than A-2-6-7 and both have the same number of cuts for improvement. A-2-6-7 has more cuts for 5-9pts and 10 of these cuts are for 8/9pts (666, 777, 8888). 2-6-7-J also has the benefit of the J. Despite the advantages of A-2-6-7 I don't think it will make up the difference so I'll throw A-Q.

   

Friday 3:17 PM

At 30-29* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs__Crib___Total___W7 %____W8 %
2-6-7-J___4.39+1.09+(-4.40)=1.08____24.7____18.5
A-2-6-7___4.78+2.00+(-5.90)=0.88____28.4____19.0

Offense______L7 %____L8 %
2-6-7-J______46.6____60.2
A-2-6-7______50.4____60.0

2-6-7-J is better for expected averages by 0.20pt and although A-2-6-7 is much better for Win %s its much worse for Loss %s. As its early in the game I'll decide on expected averages and select A-Q to discard.

After the 7 cut I'll lead the J and play Offense:

Lead_______Our Pegging Pts.
J_______________1.37
7_______________1.16
2_______________1.01
6_______________0.95