July 12, 2018

*** This hand was suggested by james500
96*-106  ?
41%
38%
12%
4%
3%
Total votes: 146
Rosemarie44
2051 votes

Joined: March 2016

 
 
 
Thursday 3:36 AM
Nice one james500.
Close statistics on either 8-9 or 3-4 to our crib. Chose the smaller run for pegging at this position.
dec
6327 votes

Joined: April 2008

 
 
 
Thursday 3:44 AM
Offense with the keep, offense on the pegging... to a certain point. dec
Gougie00
5702 votes

Joined: March 2008

 
 
 
Thursday 4:53 AM
arghhh... I want a redo!
glmccuskey
4075 votes

Joined: April 2011

 
 
 
Thursday 6:15 AM
I like 3-4-5 better then 8-9-10. I’ll lead the ten, keeping the 3-4-5 intact for pegging.
JQT
4136 votes

Joined: October 2008

 
 
 
Thursday 7:22 AM
Could be a matter of style: I like 'small' cards in my Crib, but others may prefer to throw 8-9.
cribbagepogo
3245 votes

Joined: October 2007

 
 
 
Thursday 9:20 AM
I like the flush in the crib on the off chance.
Inushtuk1
1464 votes

Joined: July 2016

 
 
 
Thursday 10:04 AM
It’s a pity that the (9-10) has such a low crib average compared to the (8-9); as I would have liked to have kept that 3-4-5-8 for its higher maximum and the two-card “Magic Eleven”

Defense to the lead.
Inushtuk1 says: I just noticed that 3-4-5-8 has a three-card “Sweet Sixteen as well Alas its expected average is a bit too low.
Ras2829
5125 votes

Joined: November 2008

 
 
 
Thursday 10:33 AM
The 8-9 has considerably higher average to dealer crib because of the frequent 10 spot discard. Conversely the 9-10 has considerably lower average because of the infrequent Jack. The suited 9-10 average .04 more than the unsuited 9-10. True, the only way to get a crib flush is to put two cards of same suit in there. Even so, you'll have to play about 80 games to see one of those flushes. With opponent 15 holes away with dealer pegging advantage on upcoming hand, got to play defense here and play off the lead. Was thinking def., def., def coming out of the gate. How about you?
JQT says: Needing the full Three-Count average of Twenty-Five Points as the Dealer here, I might be a bit concerned about Playing OFF too much, especially since in either case today, we're only assured of having anywhere from Eight to Ten Points. I would only determine my course of action after seeing both the Cut Card and Pone's Lead Card. With a 6 Card "on deck," now I would only adopt a fully defensive posture if Pone were to lead a 5, 6, 7, or 9 Card. Pone's *attitude* while pegging is also key, because if I sense she or he has enough to go out, it only helps us as the Dealer to then peg aggressively and attempt to reduce the spread. But we should only do this if we are fairly certain that Pone has the goods, because as you pointed out, the known averages here do favor us considerably here as the Dealer. Verdict: React strongly but only to what we know and see.
Guest says: With only 11 known points a few pegs would be most welcome. I like optimal pegging vs defense. glmcc
Ras2829 says: Hi JQT & glmcc: You'll get no argument from me on the optimal pegging strategy choice. There's a good case to go that way and you've defined it. More to follow.
Ras2829 says: BTW it is important to know what the probabilities are for opponent to go out with first count in such situations. Some of you old-timers have figured it out pretty close. Anyway these are food figures to know near end of the game. These figures should be a major influence on the strategy you choose. What are chances of n/d winning with first count? From 15 (1 in 8); 14 (1 in 6); 13 (1 in 5); 12 (1 in 4); 11 (1 in 3.5); 10 (1 in 2); and 9 (1 in 2). With dealer average on pegs at 3.6-3.8 for strong pegger, want to limit non-dealer in this situation to no more than 9-10 (hand score and pegs combined). That's my goal and increases my chances to chalk up a win though likely to be one of those single digit squeakers.
Coeurdelion
5574 votes

Joined: October 2007

 
 
 
Thursday 10:58 AM
I think it must be between 3-4-5-10 (8-9) and 5-8-9-10 (3-4):

3-4-5-10: 5pts + 4¾pts (Schell: 4.72) = 9¾pts

5-8-9-10: 5pts + 5pts (Schell: 4.91) = 10pts

Potential:

3-4-5-10: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 333, 444, 555, 6666, 7777, 888 + 15xXs = 43 cuts = 43/46 = 93.5% up to 8/9/10/12pts with 2222, 333, 444, 555, 6666, 101010 = 20 cuts.

5-8-9-10: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 555, 6666, 7777, 888, 999 + 15xXs = 40 cuts = 40/46 = 87.0% up to 8/9/10/12pts with 555, 7777, 888, 999, 101010, JJJJ = 20 cuts.

Pegging:

I think 3-4-5-10 will peg better than 5-8-9-10 playing Offense.

Position:

We're at 4th street positional hole as Dealer but Pone is 10pts ahead so is also in position. Every hole past 112pts we can score will be vital but on the other hand we do not want opponent to be within pegging distance for next deal. So I'll score points where I can but relatively safely.

Summary:

3-4-5-10 has more cuts for improvement and although it has the same 20 cuts for 8-12pts it has more cuts for 12pts (333, 555 vs. 555). So I'll throw 8-9.
HalscribCLX
5297 votes

Joined: February 2008

 
 
 
Thursday 12:04 PM
At 96*-106 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Pone's
Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total____W1 %___W2 %
3-4-5-10__8.02+(-2.20)+4.57=10.39____2.1____35.4
5-8-9-10__7.76+(-2.09)+4.60=10.27____1.2____34.4
3-4-5-8___8.15+(-2.20)+3.95= 9.90____1.6____33.8

Defense_______L1 %____L2 %
3-4-5-10______16.0____61.1
5-8-9-10______16.4____62.4
3-4-5-8_______17.7____63.1

3-4-5-10 is best for expected averages by 0.12pt and is slightly best for Win %s and Loss %s both of which take account of the board position. So I'll select 8-9 to discard.

After the 6 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.
JRCeagle78
1054 votes

Joined: June 2016

 
 
 
Thursday 1:26 PM
Every cut but the 9 will increase this hand to some degree. The nine will benefit the 8-9 in my crib. I'll play a cautious defense and I could end up around hole 110-111. I will hold out hope that the pone had an unnecessary 9 that he put into the crib.