July 12, 2018
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Total votes: 146 |
Rosemarie44 2051 votes Joined: March 2016 |
    Thursday 3:36 AM
Nice one james500.
Close statistics on either 8-9 or 3-4 to our crib. Chose the smaller run for pegging at this position. |
dec 6327 votes Joined: April 2008 |
    Thursday 3:44 AM
Offense with the keep, offense on the pegging... to a certain point. dec |
Gougie00 5702 votes Joined: March 2008 |
    Thursday 4:53 AM
arghhh... I want a redo! |
glmccuskey 4075 votes Joined: April 2011 |
    Thursday 6:15 AM
I like 3-4-5 better then 8-9-10. I’ll lead the ten, keeping the 3-4-5 intact for pegging. |
JQT 4136 votes Joined: October 2008 |
    Thursday 7:22 AM
Could be a matter of style: I like 'small' cards in my Crib, but others may prefer to throw 8-9. |
cribbagepogo 3245 votes Joined: October 2007 |
    Thursday 9:20 AM
I like the flush in the crib on the off chance. |
Inushtuk1 1464 votes Joined: July 2016 |
    Thursday 10:04 AM
It’s a pity that the (9-10) has such a low crib average compared to the (8-9); as I would have liked to have kept that 3-4-5-8 for its higher maximum and the two-card “Magic Eleven”
Defense to the lead. Inushtuk1 says: I just noticed that 3-4-5-8 has a three-card “Sweet Sixteen as well Alas its expected average is a bit too low. |
Ras2829 5125 votes Joined: November 2008 |
    Thursday 10:33 AM
The 8-9 has considerably higher average to dealer crib because of the frequent 10 spot discard. Conversely the 9-10 has considerably lower average because of the infrequent Jack. The suited 9-10 average .04 more than the unsuited 9-10. True, the only way to get a crib flush is to put two cards of same suit in there. Even so, you'll have to play about 80 games to see one of those flushes. With opponent 15 holes away with dealer pegging advantage on upcoming hand, got to play defense here and play off the lead. Was thinking def., def., def coming out of the gate. How about you? JQT says: Needing the full Three-Count average of Twenty-Five Points as the Dealer here, I might be a bit concerned about Playing OFF too much, especially since in either case today, we're only assured of having anywhere from Eight to Ten Points. I would only determine my course of action after seeing both the Cut Card and Pone's Lead Card. With a 6 Card "on deck," now I would only adopt a fully defensive posture if Pone were to lead a 5, 6, 7, or 9 Card. Pone's *attitude* while pegging is also key, because if I sense she or he has enough to go out, it only helps us as the Dealer to then peg aggressively and attempt to reduce the spread. But we should only do this if we are fairly certain that Pone has the goods, because as you pointed out, the known averages here do favor us considerably here as the Dealer. Verdict: React strongly but only to what we know and see. Guest says: With only 11 known points a few pegs would be most welcome. I like optimal pegging vs defense. glmcc Ras2829 says: Hi JQT & glmcc: You'll get no argument from me on the optimal pegging strategy choice. There's a good case to go that way and you've defined it. More to follow. Ras2829 says: BTW it is important to know what the probabilities are for opponent to go out with first count in such situations. Some of you old-timers have figured it out pretty close. Anyway these are food figures to know near end of the game. These figures should be a major influence on the strategy you choose. What are chances of n/d winning with first count? From 15 (1 in 8); 14 (1 in 6); 13 (1 in 5); 12 (1 in 4); 11 (1 in 3.5); 10 (1 in 2); and 9 (1 in 2). With dealer average on pegs at 3.6-3.8 for strong pegger, want to limit non-dealer in this situation to no more than 9-10 (hand score and pegs combined). That's my goal and increases my chances to chalk up a win though likely to be one of those single digit squeakers. |
Coeurdelion 5574 votes Joined: October 2007 |
    Thursday 10:58 AM
I think it must be between 3-4-5-10 (8-9) and 5-8-9-10 (3-4):
3-4-5-10: 5pts + 4¾pts (Schell: 4.72) = 9¾pts 5-8-9-10: 5pts + 5pts (Schell: 4.91) = 10pts Potential: 3-4-5-10: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 333, 444, 555, 6666, 7777, 888 + 15xXs = 43 cuts = 43/46 = 93.5% up to 8/9/10/12pts with 2222, 333, 444, 555, 6666, 101010 = 20 cuts. 5-8-9-10: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 555, 6666, 7777, 888, 999 + 15xXs = 40 cuts = 40/46 = 87.0% up to 8/9/10/12pts with 555, 7777, 888, 999, 101010, JJJJ = 20 cuts. Pegging: I think 3-4-5-10 will peg better than 5-8-9-10 playing Offense. Position: We're at 4th street positional hole as Dealer but Pone is 10pts ahead so is also in position. Every hole past 112pts we can score will be vital but on the other hand we do not want opponent to be within pegging distance for next deal. So I'll score points where I can but relatively safely. Summary: 3-4-5-10 has more cuts for improvement and although it has the same 20 cuts for 8-12pts it has more cuts for 12pts (333, 555 vs. 555). So I'll throw 8-9. |
HalscribCLX 5297 votes Joined: February 2008 |
    Thursday 12:04 PM
At 96*-106 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:
________________Pone's Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total____W1 %___W2 % 3-4-5-10__8.02+(-2.20)+4.57=10.39____2.1____35.4 5-8-9-10__7.76+(-2.09)+4.60=10.27____1.2____34.4 3-4-5-8___8.15+(-2.20)+3.95= 9.90____1.6____33.8 Defense_______L1 %____L2 % 3-4-5-10______16.0____61.1 5-8-9-10______16.4____62.4 3-4-5-8_______17.7____63.1 3-4-5-10 is best for expected averages by 0.12pt and is slightly best for Win %s and Loss %s both of which take account of the board position. So I'll select 8-9 to discard. After the 6 cut I'll play Defense to the lead. |
JRCeagle78 1054 votes Joined: June 2016 |
    Thursday 1:26 PM
Every cut but the 9 will increase this hand to some degree. The nine will benefit the 8-9 in my crib. I'll play a cautious defense and I could end up around hole 110-111. I will hold out hope that the pone had an unnecessary 9 that he put into the crib. |