Monday 3:13 AM

* 10-7 would be safer, but I'll succumb to the hopenosis this morning.
* 20 points ahead with a 12 point hand, I won't worry too much about the 4-6-7-?-? crib.
* 9c lead.

   

Monday 3:15 AM

What is a better defensive hold keeping the four or the seven? I opted for the two,five and the rest of the 9-6s in the deck. Nine lead. dec

   

Monday 4:07 AM

As usual I tend to go with expected averages. Tossing 4-T is usually only worth 2 points in opponent's crib. In keeping with our position at hole 97, I am holding 6-7-9-9 starting at 6 points and has a potential for 16 points.
In comparison, tossing 7-T (usually worth 2 points in opponent's crib also) starts with 6 points and has a potential for a maximum of 12 points.
Twenty cuts increase the former hand from 8 points to 16 points and the latter, sixteen cuts to a potential of 8 points to 12 points.

   

Monday 4:21 AM

Another Hedge move. I am not interested in pegging. Lead the 6 and if the dealer can peg on mu 9-9-10, so be it.

I am sort of hoping to see a 5 in the dealers hand. 55 would be a killer.

   

Monday 5:29 AM

I’ll throw and peg defensively. Lead the six.

   

Monday 6:19 AM

Lead a 9d.

   

Monday 8:12 AM

Rosemarie say it all. The 6-9-9-10(4-7) would be a close second. With 12 points and a significant lead, switching to offense. Lead the 9d and take everything. Try to keep the 6-7 intact for a five card trap.

   

Monday 8:20 AM

In the early days I was always pleased to see the top row yellow thinking I chose well grasshopper, but now when I see the top row yellow, I think, crap, what did I miss because the usual commenters so often vote other than than the popular vote. But today all is well. Lead the 9.

   

Monday 8:36 AM

Going for a skunk my instincts were that 7-T would be more balking than 4-T, and it is by about .3. In fact it is apparently the second most balking toss to 6-T which would have spoiled our hand.

   

Monday 8:37 AM

One drawback of this discard is the bunching of the card values. A more defensive toss could be 10-7. I'll lead the 9 and take what is offered.

   

Monday 3:05 PM

I think its between 6-7-9-9 (4-10) and 4-6-9-9 (7-10):

6-7-9-9: 6pts - 4½pts (Schell: 4.53) = +1½pts

4-6-9-9: 6pts - 4¼pts (Schell: 4.31) = +1¾pts

Potential:

6-7-9-9: Improves with 2222, 5555, 666, 777, 8888, 99 = 20 cuts = 20/46 = 43.5% up to 9/12/16pts with 5555, 666, 8888, 99 = 13 cuts.

4-6-9-9: Improves with 2222, 444, 5555, 666, 99 = 16 cuts = 16/46 = 34.8% up to 9/10/12pts with 2222, 5555, 666, 99 = 13 cuts.

Pegging:

I think 6-7-9-9 will peg slightly better than 4-6-9-9

Position:

We're at 4th street CPZ although as Non-dealer and Dealer is way behind at 77pts. So I think we can afford to play Offense.

Summary:

6-7-9-9 starts with ¼pt less than 4-6-9-9 buy has more cuts for improvement and more cuts for a good hand and to a better maximum. So I'll throw 4-10.

   

Monday 3:46 PM

At 97-77* playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Dlr's
Defense___Hand__Pegs____Crib___Total___W1 %___W2 %
6-7-9-9___8.09+(-2.61)+(-4.59)=0.89____0.1____59.8
6-9-9-10__8.00+(-2.65)+(-4.56)=0.79____0.0____60.4
4-6-9-9___7.57+(-2.65)+(-4.16)=0.76____0.0____56.1

Defense______L1 %___L2 %
6-7-9-9______0.0____0.6
6-9-9-10_____0.0____0.6
4-6-9-9______0.0____0.5

6-7-9-9 is best for expected averages by 0.10pt but 6-9-9-10 is slightly better for Win %s. Loss %s are about the same. As its approaching the end of the game I'll put more weight on The Win %s which take account of the board position. So I'll select 4-7 to discard.

After the 6 cut I'll lead a 9 and play Optimally (cautious offense):

Lead_______Net Pegging Pts.
9______________(-1.04)
6______________(-1.20)
10_____________(-1.83)

   

Monday 5:39 PM

It's pretty darn close call here as to whether defense or offense is the better choice. With a 20 point lead and well down 4th street, I'll opt for offense as the majority have. Did not consider holding 6-9-9-10. If not choosing the hand with sixteen points potential would have chosen 4-6-9-9 and discarded 7-10. The discard profiles have some differences if comparing 7-10 with 4-10. The 7-10 and 4-10 at least are on page 1. The 7-10 averages 4.171 (1,785) 7/91, scores two or less 37.871%, tallies 3-7 46.611%, scores 8-11 12.661%, and reaches 12 or more 2.857%. The 4-10 averages 4.576 (932) 26/91, scores two or less 38.09%, tallies 3-7 42.168%, scores 8-11 17.167%, and reaches 12 or more 2.575%. Sorry would not have considered 4-7 as shown above in HalscribCLX analysis. The 4-7 is way down the list with average of 4.997 (695) 47/91, scores 2 or less 28.877%, reaches 3-7 56.281%, scores 8-11 19.375%, and reaches 12 or more 5.467%. That means that 1/4 cribs are 8 or more points with the 4-7 toss to opponent. Will lead 9D and peg with reasonable safety. If a six is played on my nine lead, will advance the count to 24 with the other 9 spot rather than make the count 21 to pair the 6.