June 9, 2018

*** This hand was suggested by peggylunta on ecribbage.com
0-0*  ?
57%
19%
14%
3%
3%
0%
Total votes: 129
james500
3895 votes

Joined: June 2013

 
 
 
Saturday 3:10 AM
Three Diamonds and a Heart for me, a Club and a Heart for my opponent.
dec
6327 votes

Joined: April 2008

 
 
 
Saturday 3:14 AM
Wishing for a dozen and an effective discard here. dec
JQT
4136 votes

Joined: October 2008

 
 
 
Saturday 3:47 AM
It may seem incongruent, but since this is Cribbage and not Poker, Keep (2 4 9 9) is better than either Two PAIRS ... or even a PEARS Royale. Lead the 4 Card.
Rosemarie44
2051 votes

Joined: March 2016

 
 
 
Saturday 3:48 AM
First hand for pone, offense. Best for expected averages tossing 2-9 to dealer.
Gougie00
5702 votes

Joined: March 2008

 
 
 
Saturday 4:49 AM
Hedging. No reason to give the opponent 2 points for nothing.
horus93
1272 votes

Joined: December 2017

 
 
 
Saturday 5:36 AM
I'm more likely to take risks earlier in the game. Depends on mood really
Gougie00 says: I would hate to lose by the 2 points ...
Rosemarie44 says: Hi horus93:Tossing 9-9 to opponent's crib has the potential of 6.52 points in his crib! (Ras's values).
Inushtuk1
1464 votes

Joined: July 2016

 
 
 
Saturday 7:47 AM
Dealer’s favourite discard is (7-8). So no Peggy; I’m not tossing the 9’s for two chances out of 46 for a 14 point hand; or the double run gut shot for 12 points. I can get my 12 pointer this way too. If we keep the double run shot, and hit our hand with a 3 cut, and Dealer tossed a pair of 3’s, that’s a 20 point crib. If we cut the 2 for 14 in our hand, and Dealer tosses a pair of 4’s, that’s a 12 point crib for him/her. Hardly seems worth the risk, with us having multiple chances for 12 points ourselves, and a fairly safe discard to boot.

Lead from our strength. The 9 of diamonds.
Inushtuk1 says: It’s too early in the game to attempt the Hail Mary Pass imho. At 106-114*, for sure I’ll go for it. Best case scenario is I’ll be one hole short, and an excellent chance for a GO in the play of the hand with my 2 lead.
glmccuskey
4075 votes

Joined: April 2011

 
 
 
Saturday 9:03 AM
I want to keep the 2-2-4 together and maybe I can run those twos at the end of the count. Lead the four.
Guest says: me too...listening to mentor Shimp--toss those 9's. S :)
Coeurdelion
5573 votes

Joined: October 2007

 
 
 
Saturday 12:49 PM
Three ways to hold 6pts 2-2-4-9 (9-9), 2-4-9-9 (2-9) and 2-9-9-9 (2-4):

2-2-4-9: 6pts - 6¼pts (Schell: 6.39) = -¼pt

2-4-9-9: 6pts - 4¾pts (Schell: 4.70) = +1¾pts

2-9-9-9: 6pts - 5¼pts (Schell: 5.33) = +¾pt

Potential:

2-2-4-9: Improves with 22, 3333, 444, 6666, 7777, 9 = 18 cuts = 18/46 = 39.1% up to 12/14pts with 22, 3333, 444, 9 = 10 cuts.

2-4-9-9: Improves with 22, 3333, 444, 6666, 9 = 14 cuts = 30.4% up to 9/10/12pts with all cuts.

2-9-9-9: Improves with 22, 444, 6666, 9 = 10 cuts = 10/46 = 21.7% up to 12pts with 444, 9 = 4 cuts.

Pegging:

I think 2-2-4-9 will peg best playing Offense.

Position:

In opening position we'll be playing Offense to catch up our positional deficit. .

Summary:

2-4-9-9 has at least a 1pt surplus in starting value and although 2-4-9-9 has fewer cuts for improvement it has 4 cuts more for a good hand. So I'll throw an unsuited 2-9 and I'll keep the three card flush.
HalscribCLX
5296 votes

Joined: February 2008

 
 
 
Saturday 1:55 PM
At 0-0* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Dlr's
Offense___Hand_Pegs__Crib___Total___W9 %____W10 %
2-4-9-9*__7.39+1.07+(-4.27)=4.19____22.9____23.2
2-9-9-9*__7.13+0.85+(-4.75)=3.23____21.6____21.5
2-2-4-9___7.74+1.22+(-6.00)=2.96____25.0____21.3

Offense______L9 %____L10 %
2-4-9-9*_____35.9____50.4
2-9-9-9*_____36.8____51.9
2-2-4-9______41.4____53.7

* unsuited discard.

2-4-9-9 is best for expected averages by 0.96pt and is about the same as 2-2-4-9 for Win %s but much lower for Loss %s so I'll select 2H-9C to discard.

After the Q cut I'll lead 9D and play Offense:

Lead___________Our Pegging Pts.
9___________________1.21
2___________________0.71
4___________________0.59
Guest says: this is below i believe in those opinions and facts. dec
Ras2829
5125 votes

Joined: November 2008

 
 
 
Saturday 2:02 PM
Based on my scant empirical data, there is only .4 of a point difference in holding 2-4-9-9 and 2-2-4-9, Why give up two points to gain that bit. So it's an unsuited 2-9 for me. Playing offense all the way. In such cases if holding an 8, ,9, or X-pointer with three small cards, lead the large card.
Ras2829 says: Or lead the larger card even when holding two small cards if choosing an offense strategy.
Ras2829 says: BTW if choosing an offense pegging strategy and you have a choice of retaining 8/9/X with 2 or 3 small cards favor the 8/9 as that X spot as a lead will often draw a five response. A hand such as 8-3-4-Q has potentially good offensive pegging power if leading the 8. How might that work? Something often happens with today's hand as well with the 9 lead. If the dealer has a trey, may be fearful of playing it on 9. By holding it allows non-dealer to stack up the 2-4 for run of three and most likely go. In addition by holding the small cards intact, you may be able to safely pair a deuce or four spot as dealer will generally make the count over 15 rather than less than 15.
Inushtuk1 says: Hi Ras. Perhaps you are referring to the 8 lead may draw a Q to get the count over (15). And we score Q(28-2)-GO-3(31-2). Or he drops a 5 on our 8 lead which allows us to entice a run for him/her that we can extend?
Ras2829 says: Hi Inustuk1; Certainly it works both those ways. More commonly on the 8 lead the count will advance to 18 with something other than the Queen to which we respond with the four for 22, dealer is often forced to drop the five there as chose to get the count over 15 on the initial play, and non dealer drops the trey for count of 30 and a likely go.
dgergens
938 votes

Joined: January 2018

 
 
 
Saturday 6:02 PM
And now for the laytard line of reasoning. It's 6 points either way tossing 2,9 or 2,4. More opportunities with the cut if I keep 2,4,9,9. And 2,9 to the pone's crib is pretty innocuous.