June 9, 2018
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19% | |||||
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3% | |||||
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Total votes: 129 |
james500 3895 votes Joined: June 2013 |
    Saturday 3:10 AM
Three Diamonds and a Heart for me, a Club and a Heart for my opponent. |
dec 6327 votes Joined: April 2008 |
    Saturday 3:14 AM
Wishing for a dozen and an effective discard here. dec |
JQT 4136 votes Joined: October 2008 |
    Saturday 3:47 AM
It may seem incongruent, but since this is Cribbage and not Poker, Keep (2 4 9 9) is better than either Two PAIRS ... or even a PEARS Royale. Lead the 4 Card. |
Rosemarie44 2051 votes Joined: March 2016 |
    Saturday 3:48 AM
First hand for pone, offense. Best for expected averages tossing 2-9 to dealer. |
Gougie00 5702 votes Joined: March 2008 |
    Saturday 4:49 AM
Hedging. No reason to give the opponent 2 points for nothing. |
horus93 1272 votes Joined: December 2017 |
    Saturday 5:36 AM
I'm more likely to take risks earlier in the game. Depends on mood really Gougie00 says: I would hate to lose by the 2 points ... Rosemarie44 says: Hi horus93:Tossing 9-9 to opponent's crib has the potential of 6.52 points in his crib! (Ras's values). |
Inushtuk1 1464 votes Joined: July 2016 |
    Saturday 7:47 AM
Dealer’s favourite discard is (7-8). So no Peggy; I’m not tossing the 9’s for two chances out of 46 for a 14 point hand; or the double run gut shot for 12 points. I can get my 12 pointer this way too. If we keep the double run shot, and hit our hand with a 3 cut, and Dealer tossed a pair of 3’s, that’s a 20 point crib. If we cut the 2 for 14 in our hand, and Dealer tosses a pair of 4’s, that’s a 12 point crib for him/her. Hardly seems worth the risk, with us having multiple chances for 12 points ourselves, and a fairly safe discard to boot.
Lead from our strength. The 9 of diamonds. Inushtuk1 says: It’s too early in the game to attempt the Hail Mary Pass imho. At 106-114*, for sure I’ll go for it. Best case scenario is I’ll be one hole short, and an excellent chance for a GO in the play of the hand with my 2 lead. |
glmccuskey 4075 votes Joined: April 2011 |
    Saturday 9:03 AM
I want to keep the 2-2-4 together and maybe I can run those twos at the end of the count. Lead the four. Guest says: me too...listening to mentor Shimp--toss those 9's. S :) |
Coeurdelion 5573 votes Joined: October 2007 |
    Saturday 12:49 PM
Three ways to hold 6pts 2-2-4-9 (9-9), 2-4-9-9 (2-9) and 2-9-9-9 (2-4):
2-2-4-9: 6pts - 6¼pts (Schell: 6.39) = -¼pt 2-4-9-9: 6pts - 4¾pts (Schell: 4.70) = +1¾pts 2-9-9-9: 6pts - 5¼pts (Schell: 5.33) = +¾pt Potential: 2-2-4-9: Improves with 22, 3333, 444, 6666, 7777, 9 = 18 cuts = 18/46 = 39.1% up to 12/14pts with 22, 3333, 444, 9 = 10 cuts. 2-4-9-9: Improves with 22, 3333, 444, 6666, 9 = 14 cuts = 30.4% up to 9/10/12pts with all cuts. 2-9-9-9: Improves with 22, 444, 6666, 9 = 10 cuts = 10/46 = 21.7% up to 12pts with 444, 9 = 4 cuts. Pegging: I think 2-2-4-9 will peg best playing Offense. Position: In opening position we'll be playing Offense to catch up our positional deficit. . Summary: 2-4-9-9 has at least a 1pt surplus in starting value and although 2-4-9-9 has fewer cuts for improvement it has 4 cuts more for a good hand. So I'll throw an unsuited 2-9 and I'll keep the three card flush. |
HalscribCLX 5296 votes Joined: February 2008 |
    Saturday 1:55 PM
At 0-0* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:
_______________Dlr's Offense___Hand_Pegs__Crib___Total___W9 %____W10 % 2-4-9-9*__7.39+1.07+(-4.27)=4.19____22.9____23.2 2-9-9-9*__7.13+0.85+(-4.75)=3.23____21.6____21.5 2-2-4-9___7.74+1.22+(-6.00)=2.96____25.0____21.3 Offense______L9 %____L10 % 2-4-9-9*_____35.9____50.4 2-9-9-9*_____36.8____51.9 2-2-4-9______41.4____53.7 * unsuited discard. 2-4-9-9 is best for expected averages by 0.96pt and is about the same as 2-2-4-9 for Win %s but much lower for Loss %s so I'll select 2H-9C to discard. After the Q cut I'll lead 9D and play Offense: Lead___________Our Pegging Pts. 9___________________1.21 2___________________0.71 4___________________0.59 Guest says: this is below i believe in those opinions and facts. dec
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Ras2829 5125 votes Joined: November 2008 |
    Saturday 2:02 PM
Based on my scant empirical data, there is only .4 of a point difference in holding 2-4-9-9 and 2-2-4-9, Why give up two points to gain that bit. So it's an unsuited 2-9 for me. Playing offense all the way. In such cases if holding an 8, ,9, or X-pointer with three small cards, lead the large card. Ras2829 says: Or lead the larger card even when holding two small cards if choosing an offense strategy. Ras2829 says: BTW if choosing an offense pegging strategy and you have a choice of retaining 8/9/X with 2 or 3 small cards favor the 8/9 as that X spot as a lead will often draw a five response. A hand such as 8-3-4-Q has potentially good offensive pegging power if leading the 8. How might that work? Something often happens with today's hand as well with the 9 lead. If the dealer has a trey, may be fearful of playing it on 9. By holding it allows non-dealer to stack up the 2-4 for run of three and most likely go. In addition by holding the small cards intact, you may be able to safely pair a deuce or four spot as dealer will generally make the count over 15 rather than less than 15. Inushtuk1 says: Hi Ras. Perhaps you are referring to the 8 lead may draw a Q to get the count over (15). And we score Q(28-2)-GO-3(31-2). Or he drops a 5 on our 8 lead which allows us to entice a run for him/her that we can extend? Ras2829 says: Hi Inustuk1; Certainly it works both those ways. More commonly on the 8 lead the count will advance to 18 with something other than the Queen to which we respond with the four for 22, dealer is often forced to drop the five there as chose to get the count over 15 on the initial play, and non dealer drops the trey for count of 30 and a likely go. |
dgergens 938 votes Joined: January 2018 |
    Saturday 6:02 PM
And now for the laytard line of reasoning. It's 6 points either way tossing 2,9 or 2,4. More opportunities with the cut if I keep 2,4,9,9. And 2,9 to the pone's crib is pretty innocuous. |