March 9, 2018

*** This hand was suggested by Inushtuk1
24-14*  ?
41%
20%
20%
9%
3%
1%
1%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 163
JQT
4136 votes

Joined: October 2008

 
 
 
Friday 3:06 AM
Safe discard, also considered Toss (8 T); meanwhile a 4 Card or 7 Card still help us after Toss (6 T).

Lead a Trey from the PAIR.
JQT says: The 8 Card probably helps this hand as much or more than the 6 Card, and this is not unusual when analyzing such an arrangement as this. Notice that while Keep (3 3 5 6) is not helped by Seven Cuts (2222, 888), that our selection of Keep (3 3 5 8) is not helped by just Three Cuts (666). And Toss (6 T) is definitely the safest Discard Choice from among these six cards, so we're probably getting maximum 'synergy' today after we Toss (6 T).
dec
6327 votes

Joined: April 2008

 
 
 
Friday 3:07 AM
Defense. The only cut that does not add to hand are the two and the eight. Playing a chance to get to thirty four. Know the pegging cards are bunched up so this might be this for that for points. Three of hearts lead. dec
Rosemarie44
2051 votes

Joined: March 2016

 
 
 
Friday 3:21 AM
I was riskier in my decision to toss 6-8 to dealer. Hand has more cuts for improvement over 3-3-5-8 which started with 2 points vs. 4 points.
Gougie00
5702 votes

Joined: March 2008

 
 
 
Friday 4:43 AM
That worked out well, didnt it? Purely defensive gesture trying to maintain a lead. Lead the 3 and play off.
Jazzselke
2569 votes

Joined: March 2009

 
 
 
Friday 5:54 AM
Purely defensive posture. Trying to prevent opponent from getting to about Hole 36 or so.
Jazzselke says: ...as we are not going to get to 43-47.
JRCeagle78
1054 votes

Joined: June 2016

 
 
 
Friday 6:25 AM
Tossing the 8-T may seem like a risky move setting up a run of three for the dealer on the event of a 9 being cut, but the nine will give 4 points to his three. You have to pay the taxman before you get a refund.

The 6 cut should get me to my goal with a 3 lead and good defensive play.
horus93
1272 votes

Joined: December 2017

 
 
 
Friday 6:57 AM
6-8 isn't THAT risky, not enough to justify the loss of hand potential with other tosses this early in the game imo. Defense to the cut, lead the 3. 3-3-5-8 was my second choice but it has a lot of dud cuts.
horus93 says: Worth noting too that while 3-3-5-8 might be "only" 1.6 points lower on hand average than 3-3-6-T, its own average is being pulled high by cuts 4 and 7. 33 cuts will give you
horus93 says: * less than 5 points, compared to only 10 dud cuts for 3-3-5-X. At 108*-95 I'd throw 8-T but not 24-14*. Hopefully dealer plays a X card to hit my magic 11. Either way I'd try to dump my five as soon as I could do so safely.
horus93 says: * 108-95*, not 108*-95
horus93
1272 votes

Joined: December 2017

 
 
 
Friday 7:15 AM
* 6-T at 108-95* I meant, which is better than 8-T, last one haha
james500
3895 votes

Joined: June 2013

 
 
 
Friday 7:29 AM
Plan to lead a 3 hoping for an X response, and safely dump the 5 as my second card:


3(3)-X(13)-5(18)-X(28)-3(31/2) or,
3(3)-X(13)-5(18)-5(23/2)-8(31/2).

Very unfortunate with the cut, 43/46 would've added points to our hand:

43 cards = 7 lots of six cards, and 1 more card =
43 cards = (7*13%) + (1*2%) =
43 cards = 91% + 2% =
43 cards = 93% of possible cuts would've helped.
Inushtuk1 says: Hi again James. In your first pegging scenario you are making use of your three card “Magic Eleven”. In the second one you use the Sweet Sixteen, as our friend JQT likes to call it. But I prefer showing my second 3 at the count of (13). This will usually force his 5 off the play again, and Dealer dumps another X-card for (26). Now I close the count at (31-2) with my 5, using the final component of my three card eleven. This way I avoid giving the Dealer that two points at the count of (18).
glmccuskey
4075 votes

Joined: April 2011

 
 
 
Friday 7:31 AM
I'll play it defensively and lead the three of spades. Every cut except a six adds value.
Ras2829
5125 votes

Joined: November 2008

 
 
 
Friday 9:15 AM
Dealer is exceedingly short and non-dealer has no ability to reach that next CPZ 43-47 as indicated by Jazzselke above. So its def., def., def., for me and the 6-10 is the lowest scoring combination in this hand. Lead the 3s, ditch the five spot next play if feasible. Just how much safer is the 6-10 than the 8-10 on average?
Ras2829 says: The 6-10 average is 4.224 (1,646) 8/91is on page one if listing 30 discards to a page. The 8-10 at 5.586 (561) 61/91 is way down the list on page 3. There are 53 discard choices between the 6/10 and the 8/10.
Ras2829 says: This game of cribbage mocks us in many ways. How often do you say, "only a ____ won't help this hand" and that is the card that shows on the deck as the starter card? When holding 4-4-5-6 or similar, I just know the 8s will show. How about that lousy five when holding a double run of small cards? So often on this site you see the same result as again today. Could it just be our mind that is playing tricks on us or could it be the power of negative thinking?
Inushtuk1
1464 votes

Joined: July 2016

 
 
 
Friday 12:43 PM
I wish I could find my notes on this submission. But I think the idea was that tossing (6-8) is being too defensive here. Therefore I am in complete agreement with Rosemarie and horus93. Wasn’t it Greg’s mentor Al Miller who said, “Sometimes you can play yourself defensively into a close loss.”?

Playing defense, and leading my 3h. On a 10 or any X-card response showing the other 3 from the three card “Magic Eleven”.
Inushtuk1 says: Go back and reread horus93’s post. He’s right. The 3-3-5-8 gets a lot of it’s *fairly* high average hand from the 4 cut, and to a lesser extent, the 7 cut. I just mapped out both hands, and see that 3-3-5-8 actually has *36* cuts that leave us at 4 points or less. And 3 of those cuts (666) leave us with only 2 points. Let’s take a chance with the (6-8) and move on down the board.
Ras2829 says: Hi Iushtuk1. I had run a query on this hand on Cribbage Prof sometime ago and knew that 6-8 was slightly better choice. So where would I consider tossing the 6-8? Had I been at hole 34 with a realistic chance to reach 2nd street CPZ 43-47, would have retained 3-3-5-X.
Inushtuk1 says: I remember the Prof doing the same thing on defense once. But I couldn’t tell you what the actual score was for that particular game. Note that although the loss %s are better by 3.8% for (6-10) over (6-8); the *win% for (6-8) are better by 6.3% over (6-10). That seems like a significant difference to *me* anyway.
Inushtuk1 says: Or look at it from Coeurdelion’s point of view. The (6-8) has a starting value that is 3/4 to 1.25 points higher. And (6-10) is not really in the same category as (K-10). But you guys may be right. What do I know?
Dr. Crib
16 votes

Joined: February 2018

 
 
 
Friday 2:37 PM
I agree that at this point in the game one doesn't want to be TOO defensive, but only if there something to gain from the risk. I don't see a very big up side to holding 3-3-5-10 and tossing 6-8. Doing so you'll start off with two more points than holding 3-3-5-8 and you'll probably end up with only two more points after the cut. Once you see that 6 cut, you'll be hoping to see dealer play some middle cards. If dealer tosses two middle cards to the crib, you've gone from slightly ahead to way behind this hand. I opt for defense and living to fight another day.
Coeurdelion
5574 votes

Joined: October 2007

 
 
 
Friday 3:08 PM
One 4pt possibility 3-3-5-10 (6-8) and a couple of more defensive throws for 2pts - 3-3-5-6 (8-10) and 3-3-5-8 (6-10):

3-3-5-10: 4pts - 5½pts (Schell: 5.86) = -1½pts

3-3-5-6: 2pts - 4¾pts (Schell: 5.10) = -2¾pts

3-3-5-8: 2pts - 4¼pts (Schell: 4.31) = -2¼pts

Potential:

3-3-5-10: Improves with 2222, 33, 4444, 555, 7777, 9999 + 15xXs = 36 cuts = 36/46 = 78.3% up to 8/12pts with 2222, 33, 4444, 555, 7777, 101010 = 20 cuts.

3-3-5-6: Improves with 33, 4444, 555, 666, 7777, 9999 + 15xXs = 35 cuts = 35/46 = 76.1% up to 6/8/9/14pts with 33, 4444, 6666, 7777, 9999 = 18 cuts.

3-3-5-8: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 33, 4444, 555, 7777, 888, 9999 + 15xXs = 43 cuts = 43/46 = 93.5% up to 6/14pts with 33, 4444, 7777 = 10 cuts.

Pegging:

I think all these hands will peg well with low cards and a 3-card magic eleven.

Summary:

3-3-5-10 is best for starting value by ¾-1¼pts and has a good number of cuts for improvement with 20 cuts for 8/12pts. So I'll throw 6-8.
HalscribCLX
5297 votes

Joined: February 2008

 
 
 
Friday 3:51 PM
At 24-14* playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_________________Dlr's
Defense____Hand__Pegs___Crib___Total_____W7 %____W8 %
3-3-5-10___6.78+(-2.63)+5.43=(-1.28)_____18.1____41.2
3-3-5-6____5.78+(-2.46)+4.78=(-1.46)_____16.7____39.4
3-3-5-8____5.17+(-2.61)+4.08=(-1.52)_____14.6____38.4

Defense_________L7 %____L8 %
3-3-5-10________12.8____28.1
3-3-5-6_________11.8____27.9
3-3-5-8_________10.4____26.7

3-3-5-10 is 0.18pt better for expected averages and is appreciably better for Win %s. It is slightly worse for Loss %s because of the riskier 6-8 but even so I'll elect to discard it.

After the 6 cut I'll lead a 3 and play Defense:

Lead______________Dealer's Pegging Pts.
3________________________(-2.29)
10_______________________(-2.69)
5________________________(-3.24)